Author Topic: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End  (Read 574 times)

Online JohnyMac

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6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« on: July 19, 2022, 07:47:08 AM »
Thinking back to my old business days, knowing that a recession was coming, I would have already had put a freeze on hiring. I would have also asked my department heads, plan for layoffs and get back to me with your list of folks to layoff.

The department heads would go back to their departments and rate all of the employees under them for their worth to the department and to the company as a whole. Once the employees work worth was rated a review of all the employees salaries would commence.

Once you have the above information, the folks with higher than average wages and rate in the bottom half of the work worth category, would be identified as layoff opportunities.

Next, I would reconvene a meeting with the department heads to review the potential layoff list to see if we could move any of those employees to rolls in other departments that they would be more successful at.

Last, the layoff list would go to HR and a pink slip day would be determined.

There are other steps in the process from the day HR receives the list and Black Friday arrives but, you get the drift. 

If you think this is not happening across American board rooms right now, you are kidding yourself.

My point, with the down turn of the economy eminent, layoffs will soon follow. Depending on how stable the company is, these layoffs will start in August and accelerate into late summer and fall. By the end of the year, we will see 7-10% U6 unemployment rates

For all the UP readership I have some business and home life suggestions.

Business:
> Become if you already aren't, the most valuable employee at your company. Volunteer for every freaken work
   assignment no matter how distasteful.
> Do not grumble about anything.
> Be the first person at work and the last to leave.
> Hand in all assignment before they are asked for.
> Arrive at meetings 5-minunets ahead of the start time and stay after the meeting to tidy up.
> There are others but you get my drift.

Home Life
> If you haven't started, buy extra food and other important commodities.
> Sell unnecessary items and then,
> Pay off the damn credit cards.
> If their is a nonworking spouse in the household, it might be a good time for that spouse to go back to work. 
> Stockpile $$$$ if you can, for house necessities like, heat, mortgage, electric, insurance, etc. If you can't then
   refer back to number two above - Sell your unnecessary crap. Do you really need a boat or that canoe? Do you
   need that extra vehicle sitting in the drive way? Do you need [insert item here]?
> Cut back on current expenses NOW, e.g. vacations, cable TV, electric use, going out to dinner, etc.
> Figure out a way to earn money under the table while on unemployment if you are laid off.
> Having a family meeting to discuss what is happening today and the potential for the future is imperative. If
   everyone is aware of the present and future, and work together to prepare, there will be less stress on the
   household when it happens. By the way, it will happen.

Okay UP, help out the readers here that have never experienced a recession and all that it brings.

« Last Edit: July 28, 2022, 11:05:09 AM by JohnyMac »
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Offline Nemo

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2022, 08:19:29 AM »
Its already at 6%.  Presuming this source is accurate.

Nemo


https://unemploymentdata.com/current-u6-unemployment-rate/
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Offline Nemo

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2022, 08:22:29 AM »
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Online JohnyMac

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2022, 08:24:59 AM »
Well there you go. It is already at 6% U6. Thank you Nemo.

I think at the height of the 2010 recession, the April U6 got to 17%. In essence, 1 out of 5 Americans who could be employed were not.

So Nemo, is my 12% to conservative? Folks?
« Last Edit: July 19, 2022, 08:34:43 AM by JohnyMac »
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Offline Nemo

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2022, 10:53:54 AM »
You might be a bit high with the holiday hiring surge which generally occurs in retail.  That will likely be lower than most years but I suspect some of it will still be there.

But, Apple today announced a hiring freeze.  Several other high tech type companies did that recently, anticipating a recession.  That recession is dayum near happening so far this year.  When that happens I suspect a good pile of people are going to freak out and things will slow much more than anticipated.

First quarter was down 1.6% and projected second was 0.7% increase.  Second was intitially anticipated to be up 1.9%.  Read the link below for more details. 

Its could become a self fulfilling prophesy, given the anticipatory actions.  No matter which way it goes, make sure your basket is full and you have some stuffed under the last bed with room for it.

In any event, I am stashing cash, edibles, metals and powders.  3 Bs plus 2.

Nemo

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/goldman-slashes-gdp-forecast-for-the-second-quarter-to-just-barely-above-water.html
« Last Edit: July 19, 2022, 10:57:43 AM by Nemo »
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Offline Sir John Honeybucket

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2022, 01:18:38 PM »
I'm currently retired, but may have to return to exotic dancing.  If I get paid by the pound, we'll be rich.

Prepper or Survivalist ?

A Prepper keeps survival rations for his pets.

A Survivalist  keeps pets as survival rations.

Online JohnyMac

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2022, 01:35:24 PM »
 :lmfao: :cheers:
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Online JohnyMac

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2022, 11:13:55 AM »
Okay, now what can you suggest to help out UP readers on what to do for when they get laid off. It is coming... :deadHorse:
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Offline Nemo

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2022, 06:49:25 PM »
I'm currently retired, but may have to return to exotic dancing.  If I get paid by the pound, we'll be rich.

You need to do something about that cameltoe.

Nemo
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Offline CJS06

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2022, 07:28:27 PM »
Unemployment combined with the inflation that is much higher than the numbers being reported. The way they are calculating inflation using "substitution" artificially reduces the real number.  The 9.1% that is being reported is closer to 18% using an "actual" model that was used prior to 1980.

Not a bad watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQwwdpCtkeo&t=20s

Chris
« Last Edit: July 28, 2022, 07:30:32 PM by CJS06 »

Online JohnyMac

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2022, 10:16:01 PM »
Thx Chris.
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Online JohnyMac

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« Last Edit: August 04, 2022, 09:52:38 AM by JohnyMac »
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Offline Felix

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Re: 6-10% U6 Unemployment By Year End
« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2022, 08:17:57 PM »
The "Great Depression" is about to make a rerun.
Only _this_ time, we won't muddle through with a common culture, common goals and lots of resources within easy reach and waiting to tap.
The stresses forming up in a Balkanized America may well have the potential to make my parent's experience pale in comparison.