Economy - The Panic Cycle Starts Next Week

[JohnyMac]

The six economists/analysis that I follow have been predicting that the next panic cycle begins late this week beginning next week and should last till the end of June.

The panic cycle is both economic and political. Some things to watch are,

> Russia advancing enforce on Ukraine.
> Ukraine is forced to sue for a cease fire.
> Regardless of what story-line the MSM is pushing, Zelensky has fleeced the West for as much money as he can and the
   Ukranina citizens and Army are starting to push back to his power.
> Putin is ill and there might be a take over from men & women, more dangerous than he. Hence, the Russia advancing
   prediction. These Russian neocons have no problem with using tactual nukes.
> A kinetic exchange between all players around Taiwan. It might or might not become a full fledged Asian/Pacific war. The
   D.C. neocons are spoil 'en for war.
> Due to Russia advancing and a possible kinetic exchange in the Pacific, PM's will rise. Gold will stay above $2K an ounce and
   silver will test the $30- ceiling.   

At home, people need to invest in assets and commodities.

Assets,
> Land,
> PM's,
> Pay off debt
> Bartering tools, tobacco supplies, alcohol, eggs,
> At a minimum, one month of cash on hand. If possible, six months of house expenditures on hand. Better yet, twelve
   months.

Commodities
> Food (Don't forget your four legged friends too)
> Equipment to grow food
> If you have room, own livestock,
> Garden,
> Generator
> Fuel for generator
> Ammo.

Same old...Same old.

Stay tuned,
 

[Felix]

Always the calls for keeping cash on hand, storing wealth in PMs.
Question: if it "all goes to Hell in a handbasket", what necessities will be even available, no matter the cash on hand?   What denomination of PM coin translates into a dozen eggs?   What does a year's worth of cash buying power now translate into if hyperinflation takes off?   (never mind the already outrageous under-reporting of true numbers logged so far)
The port of Long Beach has been at a standstill for how many days now and you've heard all about it on the MSM?
The "Third World" is in process of working to escape "dollars" (see: expanding BRICs, China/Russia) and our trillions in exploding debt is being addressed?
Nuclear exchanges/EMPs would usher in that EOTWAWKI in a big hurry, yes.    More likely, IMO, is that we slide into it over a period of months, perhaps many months.   This, the  inexorable process of a sick, decrepit order coming to the end of its historic lifespan.    Rome took a long time to completely implode, just like it took a relatively long time to walk from Rome to furthest edges of empire.
While today, one can simply jet from Rome to any point in Britannia in a few hours.

[JohnyMac]

All good questions. I would love the group to comment HOWEVER, an exchange rate will develop over time, week? Month? Quarter? It is about supply and demand. Fair value to buyer/seller. 

[pkveazey]

This economic thing is going to be a real "Bitch" in the beginning. Yep, Precious metals will have a published price but that doesn't mean that I'm going to yield to it. My PM's are worth whatever I say they are worth. My cash on hand will have to hold me until a true value establishes itself. In my mind, one ounce of Silver is worth whatever it was worth back in 1900. One days work for one ounce of Silver. When the unprepared get hungry enough, they will be glad to work for that wage because it will buy them whatever it would back in 1900. The idiots who run our country think they can manipulate the economy forever but they are wrong, as usual. Eventually, we will be a Precious metals backed economy and he who has the Gold and Silver will be in charge. With that said, has anybody besides me noticed that ALL of the major banks have been buying every piece of Gold and Silver that they can get their hands on? They slam the price down as much as possible and then run in and buy all the Physical PM's that they can. Then its rinse and repeat.

[Jackalope]

Food should continue to be among the higher priorities, if not the highest priority.  Cash will be good for starting fires and wiping your butt. 
   
   Regarding bartering, I don't envision that occurring frequently until the dust of civilization has settled.  There may be occasional trading with your neighbors or your tribe initially, but set prices for discrete items won't occur until trade relations are normalized, which infers security is in place. When your life is engulfed by chaos, safety is paramount, and trading becomes secondary.  Having sufficient food and the means to protect that food will help in ensuring the safety of you and your group.  For maybe the first week after TSHTF, PM's will have value.  After that initial period, reality will set in, and people will realize that you can't eat PM's.  My gut feeling is that other items are going to be better for bartering, things like .22LR cartridges or maybe bottles of alcohol.

   I recently attended an area study seminar.  Food, and food security were the primary focus.  Remember, we're only 9 meals from anarchy.  After several days without food, people will do almost anything for a few morsels.  Think about that, and how it fits into your plans.
 

[DMCakhunter]

When dollars are no longer accepted, the sellers of items will determine what the value is of the item they want to sell, and they have to be flexible on what they will accept. PM's are a good store of value but it is difficult to make change for them. Like if 12 eggs cost 1 oz of silver, what if there are only 6 eggs, you going to cut a coin in half?
As Jackalope says, ammo would be easier to use, if the seller will take it.

[JohnyMac]

Good discussion and all comments valuable.

My last trading commodity is ammo. If I do, I have to know the individual for obvious reasons. 

Being a capitalist, I am a big fan trading commodities for labor. Food immediately comes to mind as the #1 commodity. BUT, that leaves you the most vulnerable too.

I am sorry however...What is coming down the pike will make the 1930's depression look like a cake walk. We are looking at a total collapse of the dollar. Not a depression or contraction, a total collapse. Something like the Weimar Republic or recently Venezuela, not a nice depression.

Once the US dollar is replaced, we owe a whole lot of countries money. They are going to come as Chinese or Blue Helmet troops trying to collect on the debt.

Not unlike what I feel when the barometer drops, I feel the change in my bones that is becoming to us all by January 2025.

You cannot stop it BUT you can minimize the affects.

Stay tuned