Tick tock...Tick tock....
Still looking for your thoughts.
As Jackalope posted on another UP Board, please read Matt Braken's newest op-ed, Covington Gives a Glimpse of Civil War Two.
Thoughts?
I was going to wait until mine were published at American Partisan tomorrow, but I will just place them in here now. Johnny's already seen them, but here they are for the rest of you. I also doubly recommend the article Johny linked as Bracken wrote a fantastic piece.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2019/01/the-fourth-turning-the-future-as-i-see-it-by-patriotman/The Future (as I see it)By 2025, I expect:
1) War with China and/or Russia
2) Low intensity conflict in the United States. Cities in particular are battlegrounds.
3) Recession in which 40% of the stock market value disappears
3a) Bailouts for Wall Street again
3b) Potential bailout of student loans
3c) Questions surrounding the Full Faith and Credit of the United States. Credit rating is downgraded.
4) Major overhauls of entitlement systems
5) Major anti-gun legislation passed
6) Major demographic shift causing major political shift
7) Democrats control Congress and Presidency in 2024
8 ) IMF making moves to replace USD as world reserve currency with the SDR currency basket
9) European Union, as it is today, ceases to exist
10) Major civil unrest in Europe.
I think that the article was very closely aligned with my fears. The biggest threats we face as a country are all intertwined (thus, don’t consider this a ranked list) and are: civil unrest due to a growing divide between ideologies, economic slowdowns due to massive debt and employment trends, and outside challenge of the unipolar world by China and Russia.
I don’t think that any of these are the causation for the others, but if I was forced to choose it would be the differing of ideologies that is driving the other two. The urban and rural divide has always been present obviously, but the obvious disconnect between the coastal elites in their ivory towers and those in the hinterlands seems unsolvable at the moment. The problem mostly lies with the former as the latter would like nothing more than for everyone to be left alone by everyone else. It is the liberal elites who insist on forcing their culture, norms, and ideology on those conservatives in rural America and continually try to remake the system in their permanent favor. They attack our religion, our culture, and our lifestyle because they do not approve of it. Hell, the SJW and Leftist culture war being waged is a large part of the problem that rural Americans have with the Left. It doesn’t help that race relations – thanks to Obama – are at the worst since the 1960’s, but I don’t think this is purely race motivated (though the Great Replacement currently ongoing doesn’t help ease tensions). Of course we see a resurgence of black and white nationalisms, but it is no coincidence that the driving ideologies behind those nationalisms are different. Thus, the central problem can be summed up quite easily: the resurgence of Communism.
I think that civil conflict is unfortunately an inevitability. There is no putting the dogs back in the cage, so to speak. The clash today is no longer about issues but about fundamental ideologies. Ideology always drove the arguments, but there was room to compromise without giving up core beliefs. Compromise was enough. On both sides, compromise is only seen as another step in the direction of completely implementing your side’s agenda against your opponent’s best wishes.
From politicians, it seems that it is more and more of the good old divide and conquer strategy. It is amazing to me how populations who make up such a small amount of the actual population get so much air time and attention. As for the class warfare piece of the article, I think that was part of what Tucker Carlson said in his big start of the year speech on his program. The elites are so disconnected that they don’t see that this could very well turn out like the French Revolution because both the extreme Left and extreme Right hate their guts. It’s practically the only thing they agree on.
I think Pelosi and Co. really, really, really underestimate the damage they are doing with the attempt to undo the 2016 election. If they want to remove Trump, they need to remove him through the 2020 election because short of Trump receiving a wad of cash from Putin on video, his supporters will not believe them. It is because the war and the Deep State/Establishment have been at war with him for over two years. If they had treated him like a normal President and not shown their biases, then they could report some bombshell accusation and people would take it seriously. The media and the Democrats, in their blind rage, have really done themselves a disservice because people on the fence who may have believed them now don’t. This lack of faith in the press as only been strengthened by the two recent media foul-ups – Covington, and the Buzzfeed story on Cohen.
There are two fundamentally different visions for the future of this country, and they are wholly incompatible and, to be frank, at the edge of their compromise boundaries. This division will continue to drive the urban/rural conflict – though the cities will be disproportionately affected. These visions will be exacerbated by the coming economic crisis, which is threefold. The first piece is the corporate debt issues that are the reason the stock market is grossly over inflated. The second piece is the burgeoning public sector debt and pension system underfunding in places like California, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Thirdly, the skyrocketing personal debt (student loans, housing market) that will be unpayable will drag consumers down. As the economic system falters, there will be a lot of pain for normal Americans. This will cause their anger to turn to the system and the elites at the top. If the division that exists now is bad, it will only exponentially worsen as economic systems crumble and people find themselves out of work, out of money, and with a lot of time on their hands. Political systems will grind to a crawl and gridlock will prevail. This is not what is needed – especially if we need to face a major financial crisis and need to pass bipartisan legislation.
Our adversaries overseas – namely China and Russia – will seize the opportunity this presents. With America distracted at home, they will engage in both a “fanning of the flames” in the United States as well as overt moves in their spheres of influence. China will secure the South China Sea and the waters between the mainland and the first ring of islands. Russia will regain some ground in Eastern Europe and, with the European Union faltering through their own insatiable lust for globalism, there will be little we can do to prevent it. If we go to war with China and/or Russia, I suspect that we will lose. With China’s hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite capabilities coupled with their electronic warfare and cyber offensive capabilities, I do not think we can defeat them. It would be ground to a stalemate, and the public at home will not stomach major American causalities – in fact, China is planning on just that. If anything, the Leftists in America will cheer China’s moves as a sign that Communism is winning. Russia’s cyber offensive capabilities are also very dangerous, and I imagine that our critical infrastructure – already grossly unprotected – will see more probes and shutdowns. The war against China and Russia will be an attempt by our politicians to unite the country towards a common enemy, but it will not work.
The PlanMy main goals:
1) Relocation
2) Increase weapons experience
3) Increase medical experience
4) Develop robust communications capabilities
5) Aim towards partial self-sufficiency of food and power generation.
The number one item in my plan is relocation. I need to relocate from an occupied state and make it to a more rural location. While I have already increased my networking substantially, I want to integrate into a community before major unrest or disaster so that I can establish the necessary rapport. I want the land and the space to be able to be more self-sufficient, and I want to be able to support family if they need to leave their occupied areas.
I have really struggled (as per my previous article) with being the only one in my somewhat large family preparing. This is a common problem. I am moving from a “have a little bit of everything for everyone” mindset to “get myself kitted out first, then the girlfriend, and then go from there” strategy. If some civil conflict or low level insurgency erupts, I need to have the ability to have the supplies and skills to make myself useful to any larger clan or unit I can attach to and offer my services. I need to stop trying to get everyone at my level of preparedness and instead focus on getting myself to an exceptionally high level of readiness. From there, I can then focus on everyone else.
If I cannot leave before the festivities start, then I must continue with the current plan. Knowing that I am not a gunfighter, and that I will never have the requisite team to be an offensive force, my focus as always been area denial. Of course, you need to understand your Area of Operations long before the storm hits – and that is way more than just looking at some maps and creating overlays. Barbed wire, razor wire, sandbag, steel cables, spike strips, etc are all ways of making your location seem much more protected and dangerous than it is. My current plan (in case of a complete breakdown of society) is to occupy a nearby church building as it has natural gas, solar panels, walk-in fridge and freezer, and plenty of space for everyone. The idea is to stay covert there unless threats are detected, and then place out the defenses I listed above. Eschewing offensive capabilities, however, does not mean that you do not do proactive patrols to detect threats before they arrive at your doorstep. You need to take advantage of force multipliers – a topic often discussed on American Partisan such as here, here and here.
I intend on taking classes at my local community college (where I work) for some IT related jobs and skills in order to try and recession-proof my employment prospects. I still have student loan debt, but I find it may be a better plan of making the minimal payments on it as I gather supplies and save money for the relocation as opposed to making massive payments on it to get rid of it quicker. Once I feel like I am at a sufficient level of preparedness, I can again turn to the loans and begin double payments. This is a point of contention among some in the community that promote debt-free living first. My only answer is that I don’t like the prospect of being debt free with no food or supplies should the Storm arrive. There needs to be a balance struck here, in my eyes.
When the civil unrest begins to peak, I shouldn’t be overly affected by it. My current location, while suburban, is very conservative; of course, any future relocations will take the inevitable unrest into account. Systems disruptions are a concern, so having a large amount of supplies on hand are important. I think that hyperinflation is also a grave concern, but I feel that people like us will see it coming and will accelerate our preps accordingly - this hopefully means you are already set on supplies and just getting as much additional stuff as possible before the USD is worthless. For me, tangible goods and junk pre-1964 silver are my hedges. If and when we go to war with China, I am really concerned that they will affect critical infrastructure. Any attacks on our SCADA or electrical infrastructure could have grave effects on that civil unrest, and their anti-satellite weapons could affect our GPS systems and communications grid.
