Unchained Preppers
General Category => Health => Topic started by: Nemo on January 23, 2020, 12:01:41 AM
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from China. Might want to get that extra jar of peanut butter and stick of firewood or 2.
Nemo
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10784540/coronavirus-death-toll-wuhan-china/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10784540/coronavirus-death-toll-wuhan-china/)
KILLER BUG Coronavirus death toll DOUBLES to 17 as more than 470 cases of ‘mutating’ bug confirmed
Lizzie Parry, Tariq Tahir , 22 Jan 2020, 7:35Updated: 22 Jan 2020, 21:25
SEVENTEEN people have died from coronavirus as more than 500 cases of the killer strain were confirmed, officials have said.
Latest figures reveal 471 cases in China, with four in Thailand, two in Hong Kong and one each in the US, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
There is also unconfirmed reports of a case in Mexico.
It comes as British experts said up to 10,000 people could already be infected - adding that we can't rule out the possibility" there could already be a case in the UK.
Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert at Imperial College London, said the new strain is currently "as deadly as the Spanish flu epidemic".
The 1918 outbreak is the most severe pandemic in recent history, wiping out an estimated 50 million people across the world.
Prof Ferguson warned of "more deaths to come" as fellow experts said the outbreak has reached the threshold for an international public health emergency - ahead of today's World Health Organization meeting on the issue.
The agency could declare the virus a global health crisis today as its experts rallied to hold an emergency meeting in Geneva today.
'THOUSANDS COULD BE INFECTED'
Officials are considering putting Wuhan - a city of 11 million, a larger population than London - on lockdown, with people being told to stop travelling and to avoid crowds.
It comes at one of the busiest times of the year in China as people prepare to celebrate the Lunar New Year holidays.
The '2019-nCoV' strain has spread to other countries and major cities including Beijing, Shanghai and southern Guangdong province.
Taiwan and the US were the latest countries to confirm a case of the lethal SARS-like virus - after Australian officials said a man tested amid fears he picked up the bug in China was clear.
The new strain has also hit South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Macau with the World Health Organization predicting it will continue to cross international borders in the coming days.
It comes as Chinese officials confirmed 'novel coronavirus' - which causes pneumonia - can be passed from person to person.
. . .
continued
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...this has never been attempted before by any gov't anywhere.
As of this morning almost 20 million quarantined in three cities.
Almost makes one think the infected and death numbers they been giving us were low by a couple orders of magnitude.. otherwise ..why bother with such a disruptive, politically risky (biggest holidays in China are right now) and expensive step?
Or... it could be they just dont want to have egg on their face like they did with SARS where there response was months late and half hearted.. and it spread to 37 different countries (also a coronavirus BTW)
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I have seen reports this is primarily a reptilian sourced virus that is air transmissible.
Make that 2 jars of peanut butter and a good ax sharpening stone.
Nemo
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Maybe Erick you can answer this question...Why do a lot of these virus's come from China?
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Why do a lot of these virus's come from China?
Though I haven't been to China, my spouse has spent years there, in Mongolia, and other Asian countries. I've spent some time in the Middle East and in a couple Asian countries. From our experience, the level of sanitation in China and most of the third world countries is no wheres close to what we have here. Live animals are often in the open markets, waiting for buyers, along with all their urine, manure and whatever. The markets are highly unsanitary. Plus there's the high population levels, along with everyone in close proximity to one another (Think rats in cages). So any type of viral infection is going to run rampant in the population.
It should also be noted that Wuhan is the site of a Level 4 Bioresearch lab too, though that may be nothing. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/04/c_136872077.htm (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/04/c_136872077.htm)
I guess we'll know within the next week whether this is going to be a big one. I'm inclined to lay in some extra chicken feed, and other last minute preps. It certainly can't hurt.
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Jackalope wrote, It should also be noted that Wuhan is the site of a Level 4 Bioresearch lab too, though that may be nothing.
Yeah, my tin foiled hat was thinking this too.
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Population and lack of sanitation definitely contribute to spread of disease. Just look at Europe during the plague. Clean, running water and sewage systems have done more for our health than modern healthcare.
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I reiterate, the extreme Chinese gov't response still does not make sense to me (now over 10 cities and 40 million people as of 10 hrs ago).
Not based on the numbers they are submitting to WHO that is... :what:
- They have nearly double the amount of people die by the Flu (averaged per day) in a single day! ..than all month so far in this outbreak ( as reported last nite)
- They have about the same number of traffic fatalities per day as deaths so far for the entire month!
- This response is costing them tens of billions if it keep going it will impact China's GDP for the year in a measurable way.
- Also Today is the start of the Chinese lunar new year.. All year hard working Chinese wait , often for their ONLY opportunity for the year to go home and see their families. The are 10s of millions of workers who will not not see their family for yet another year.
So why?
There are 3 possibilities:
- They deliberately overreact because the bitter criticism they received for under reacting during SARS still stings and they feel they have something to prove.
- Incompetence.. the old men of the politburo ( or whatever they call it there) got panicked when some young doctor too enthusiastically briefed the threat and now they are all Gung-Ho on a "The walking Dead" type response. :whip:
- The Pathogen is much more dangerous than they are letting on and the published numbers are false. Not just a little false.. but way off... either the R factor is much higher.. or the lethality is much higher.. and they know this and this explains their response. :hiding:
The severity of their response has never before been done by any Govt. before..
I am not ringing alarm bells. Any one of those 3 explanations in plausible and only one of the 3 would be cause for concern..
We will know more in the coming months.
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FWIW I heard this morning that 2 Americans in the states are currently infected
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Well, I never expected plague to be the big prepper problem, but I'm glad I prepped for it. I live in a rural area which might help a bit, but We have several biohazard suites and masks and rubber gloves, both types. We've got a crap load of Alcohol and Hydrogen Peroxide to sterilize stuff. I hope I don't need that stuff because I'm too old to fight off that serious an infection.
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PK, worst case load up and head 100 miles west. Things probably ok on the med stuff here. Turns out they are not for you, you will get a real nice cremation.
Nemo
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Why would the Chinese government quarantine 46 million people for 40-50 deaths? I've seen reports of over 10,000 dead: https://gellerreport.com/2020/01/coronavirus-death-toll.html/ If that's the case, then this is truly a bad situation.
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China seems to be letting news out.
Nemo
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/01/24/china-confirms-wuhan-virus-infections-provinces/ (https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/01/24/china-confirms-wuhan-virus-infections-provinces/)
BREITBART
China Confirms Wuhan Virus Infections in over 90% of Provinces
Chinese state media confirmed on Friday that the coronavirus, spreading from the city of Wuhan, has now infected 29 of China’s 31 provinces, a concession critics will likely take as confirmation that the Chinese government has not been honest about how rapidly the disease is spreading.
Increasingly draconian measures taken abruptly to combat the virus, such as effectively quarantining Wuhan and several other cities, convey the impression of a crisis that is much more serious than Beijing wanted to admit.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) media claim there have only been 895 confirmed cases of infection and 26 deaths, but these sources now admit the infection has spread across the mainland, and some of the reported deaths have occurred far beyond the Wuhan epicenter of the epidemic.
Furthermore, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Friday quoted sources who said the Chinese government is still dramatically under-reporting the number of doctors and nurses who have contracted the virus while treating patients.
As of Friday, Beijing officially stopped treating the Wuhan virus like a minor problem it had well in hand, as the SCMP reported:
In response to the rapidly growing number of infections, China had shut down outbound transport from 13 cities and counties in Hubei by Friday morning, according to China National Radio.
Health officials have warned on nationwide broadcasts that people should avoid traditional family reunions and other public gatherings during the Lunar New Year period that starts on Saturday.
[…]
Confirmed cases of the new coronavirus have been found in several Asian countries, as well as the United States. New infections were confirmed on Friday in South Korea and Japan, while Singapore and Vietnam declared their first cases on Thursday. Other places outside mainland China reporting individuals carrying the virus were Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.
Chinese citizens living in the outbreak area describe a health care system completely overwhelmed by coronavirus cases, with hospitals so overcrowded that patients are sent home and told to wait days for treatment.
continued
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From Drudge. This almost looks like it could be a big one. Really Big.
Below is their big headline section. If you have ever visited you know what I refer to. If not, go there-- http://drudgereport.com/ (http://drudgereport.com/)
Nemo
OUTBREAK SPREADS
https://apnews.com/09be6cd295bc66a335e6686da6bbbffb (https://apnews.com/09be6cd295bc66a335e6686da6bbbffb)
40 MILLION QUARANTINED
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-e2-80-99s-unproven-antiviral-solution-quarantine-of-40-million/ar-BBZiafT (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-e2-80-99s-unproven-antiviral-solution-quarantine-of-40-million/ar-BBZiafT)
CASE IN CHICAGO
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/01/24/first-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-chicago/ (https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/01/24/first-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-chicago/)
22 STATES ON ALERT
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-confirms-second-us-case-of-coronavirus-chicago-resident-diagnosed.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-confirms-second-us-case-of-coronavirus-chicago-resident-diagnosed.html)
EUROPE HIT
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-outbreak-hospital-to-be-built-in-five-days-as-death-toll-rises-in-china-11916211 (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-outbreak-hospital-to-be-built-in-five-days-as-death-toll-rises-in-china-11916211)
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People there ARE no 10,000 dead in Wuhan.
Commercial Satellites would pick up the burn pits or mass burials.
Never mind MILSAT.
It would be all over the Cartelmedia and international outlets as well.
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1) Why would the Chinese government quarantine 46 million people for 40-50 deaths?
2)I've seen reports of over 10,000 dead: https://gellerreport.com/2020/01/coronavirus-death-toll.html/ If that's the case, then this is truly a bad situation.
1) Thats my point
2) This however is incorrect. :coffeeNews:
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More details (likely no links came along, sorry) from related section on Drudge.
Nemo
VIRUS: RACE TO BUILD HOSPITAL...
'THIS TIME I'M SCARED'...
DOCTORS COLLAPSE...
Nurse says quarantine failing...
Video shows dead bodies in halls...
MCDONALD'S SHUTS... DISNEYLAND SHUTS...
Military Deployed...
Pandemic Simulation Predicts 65 Million Could Die...
BUG ESCAPED FROM LAB?
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Some nuances:
- Yes there is some potential here IMHO more than the Ebola outbreak of 2014
But it is not anywhere time yet to head for the hills.
In the meantime since we are all in the mood for it.. here is a oldie but a goodie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQXqZ8JJktw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQXqZ8JJktw)
Ha I found the complete 4 part series ! (it seems they cut out all the music though for copyright)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Nf9yCgdNNI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Nf9yCgdNNI)
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Another news source/report.
Nemo
https://www.libertynation.com/exclusive-coronavirus-the-facts-you-are-not-being-told/ (https://www.libertynation.com/exclusive-coronavirus-the-facts-you-are-not-being-told/)
Exclusive: Coronavirus – The Facts You Are Not Being Told
Chinese checkers with Coronavirus.
By: Mark Angelides January 23, 2020
Please respect our republishing guidelines - Click Here FYI-- https://www.libertynation.com/republishing-guidelines/ (https://www.libertynation.com/republishing-guidelines/)
Editor’s Note: The author of this article lived and worked in mainland China for more than a decade and speaks Mandarin.
Chinese authorities suggest that the Coronavirus situation in Wuhan is being handled and that they have things under control with a team of the world’s top scientists in place. Interestingly enough, Wuhan happens to be the place in China best-suited to dealing with this kind of issue. Situated in the heart of the city is the country’s top disease research center, a BioSafety Level 4 (BSL-4) laboratory.
There are only several of these centers in Asia, and only one in China. A BSL-4 site is used for research and handling of deadly microbes and infectious agents for which there is either no cure or only an unreliable cure. What a fortunate coincidence that the only place in the entire nation that handles such dangerous viruses just happens to be in the middle of the city that has so recently experienced one.
A Crisis in Waiting
Dr. Guan Yi, who initiated the research into the SARS outbreak in 2003, has been to Wuhan. Upon returning to Hong Kong, he immediately isolated himself, telling Caixin News, that this Coronavirus strain, and the spreading of it, could be ten times more severe than that of SARS.
Chinese New Year is the biggest celebration in a country of 1.4 billion people. Each year, millions leave the city they work in and travel to their hometowns for fireworks, dumplings, and the ever-welcome “Hongbao” (red envelopes containing money). But this year, the year of the rat, they may be taking home a lot more than just festive spirit.
There quite literally could not be a worse time of year for this outbreak to happen. Chinese authorities have not only acted slowly, but they have also failed to take into account the mass movement of people around the country, including from Wuhan – a city of more than 11 million people – that occurs every year around this time.
The city of Wuhan is now in lockdown, along with several other Chinese cities. But is the genie already out of the bottle?
Too Little, Too Late
Vietnam, Thailand, the U.S., Japan, Singapore, and South Korea all have confirmed infections. Russia, Scotland, and others have suspected cases. So far, the mortality rate appears to be under 5%, but with confirmation that it can pass human to human with minimal contact, there is a severe risk of this spreading beyond a controllable net.
The main problem is that the Coronavirus has an average of a seven-day incubation period, meaning that those who are infected may not even feel any symptoms for a week or more. The World Health Organization (WHO) is in the process of deciding whether to declare this a “public health emergency of international concern.”
WHO has known about this virus since the end of 2019, and is only now formulating an official policy response (already 24 hours behind schedule). When this crisis is over, there needs to be a full inquiry into both China’s role in the events and the WHO’s lackadaisical response.
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Pirate ship ahoy.
Nemo
(https://c-5uwzmx78pmca90x24quo-a-uav-kwux2eisiuiqhmlx2evmb.g01.msn.com/g00/3_c-5eee.uav.kwu_/c-5UWZMXPMCA90x24pbbx78ax3ax2fx2fquo-a-uav-kwu.isiuiqhml.vmbx2fbmvivbx2fiux78x2fmvbqbgqlx2fJJHqbvn.quox3fpx3d294x26ex3d402x26ux3d4x26yx3d48x26cx3dbx26wx3dnx26tx3dnx26q98k.uizsx3dquiom_$/$/$/$/$)
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Seems this might grow into a big one. Even at 65 million casualties thats only about 1% of the world population. Not a big deal.
Unless it really gets going in Africa, Mid East, Western Hemisphere south of Rio Grande. Then a really big deal there, still no so much here I suspect.
Nemo
https://news.yahoo.com/health-experts-issued-ominous-warning-170400102.html
Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. Their simulation showed it could kill 65 million people.
[Business Insider] insider@insider.com (Aria Bendix),Business Insider•January 24, 2020
A coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.
The virus has been reported in at least eight other countries, including the US, where a man in Washington who recently visited China was confirmed to have the illness.
A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modeled what would happen if a deadly coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65 million people could die within 18 months.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, wasn't shocked when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, surfaced in early January.
Less than three months earlier, Toner had staged a simulation of a global pandemic involving a coronavirus.
Coronaviruses typically affect the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. A coronavirus was also responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, which affected about 8,000 people and killed 774 in the early 2000s.
"I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus," Toner said.
The outbreak in Wuhan isn't considered a pandemic, but the virus has been reported in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. The US reported its first case on Tuesday: a man in his 30s living in Washington's Snohomish County, north of Seattle, who recently visited China.
. . .
substantially continued
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Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck. :popcorn:
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Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck. :popcorn:
The common cold is caused by as many as 200 different viruses.
There is no "Common Cold Virus"
The most "common" virus to cause the "Common Cold" is a Rhinovirus (60-70% of "Common Cold" infections caused). This is a different class than a Coronavirus.
Medical Doctors are for fixing broke people. They are not necessarily Biologists (anymore that is.... their original training in Biology is actually quite thorough... but after 10-20 years people forget)
No matter who you are .. it doesnt hurt to check references.. in Science BTW Wikipedia is usually quite good, because so many guys look for errors all the time (I think I found a small error on a unrelated chemistry page.. will triple check before I send it in though):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
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I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.
Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo)
PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend
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I think this is a very serious situation. It's not a localized event, it's global. The infection rate is much higher than we've been led to believe, and the death toll is substantially higher too. The two week incubation period has me very concerned, and the R rate is higher than a typical cold or flu. No country is adequately prepared for what's coming. I think we're going to see political instability raise its head. If Trump decides to formally close the borders, and the Democrats oppose it, we may see a tidal wave of opposition against the Democrats. It will be a slaughter. To add to the woo factor, I saw a report that indicated the virus did not indeed begin at the Wuhan market. With the Level 4 bioresearch lab in Wuhan, it does make one wonder. Oh yeah, there are also Chinese rumors that the Americans planted the virus. And a patent was also issued on the coronavirus several years ago. Lots of rumors, which makes it more difficult to learn the truth.
What about the possible loss of infrastructure, i.e., electricity, water, etc.? There will be interruptions of the just in time delivery systems, as workers fall ill, or just refuse to work. Since the illness is global in nature, there won't be any white knights coming to save the day. Each country will be on their own, and each tribal unit will need to fend for themselves as resources become scarcer.
At this point, I believe that everything we're hearing regarding the number of infections and the number of deaths is a lie. Governments are attempting to keep their populaces calm. Personally, on my SHTF meter, I thinking a 5-7, with 10 being the extinction of humans. The medical system does not have capability to deter this illness avalanche.
As the infection spreads, we will self-quarantine. I don't see any other options. Any suggestions?
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Ir is reported that Beijing is going on lock down, with no transport into or out of the city. I wonder how much food they have stashed to feed such a large population. Now is the time to close our borders.
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Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck. :popcorn:
The common cold is caused by as many as 200 different viruses.
There is no "Common Cold Virus"
The most "common" virus to cause the "Common Cold" is a Rhinovirus (60-70% of "Common Cold" infections caused). This is a different class than a Coronavirus.
Medical Doctors are for fixing broke people. They are not necessarily Biologists (anymore that is.... their original training in Biology is actually quite thorough... but after 10-20 years people forget)
No matter who you are .. it doesnt hurt to check references.. in Science BTW Wikipedia is usually quite good, because so many guys look for errors all the time (I think I found a small error on a unrelated chemistry page.. will triple check before I send it in though):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
Erick is right on the money about the Rhinovirus being the main Common Cold virus. WhenI heard the Dr. Say the Coronavirus was the same as the common cold virus, a red flag went up.[quote author=Erick
Yep, I agree with Erick. Ive always been told that thecommon cold was the zhino virus and there were about 200 stains. There also can be just as many strains of influenza. Just read everything and believe nothing and do whatever you can to protect yourselves.
Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck. :popcorn:
The common cold is caused by as many as 200 different viruses.
There is no "Common Cold Virus"
The most "common" virus to cause the "Common Cold" is a Rhinovirus (60-70% of "Common Cold" infections caused). This is a different class than a Coronavirus.
Medical Doctors are for fixing broke people. They are not necessarily Biologists (anymore that is.... their original training in Biology is actually quite thorough... but after 10-20 years people forget)
No matter who you are .. it doesnt hurt to check references.. in Science BTW Wikipedia is usually quite good, because so many guys look for errors all the time (I think I found a small error on a unrelated chemistry page.. will triple check before I send it in though):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
[/quote]
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Here's an example of what we will be facing: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1221041411543523329 Can you imagine what this is going to do to the markets on Monday morning?
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The thing that is bother me is the virus is air transmissible. I have not discovered much on limits on life span outside people. If it lasts 3 weeks on a table top or 6 months in a dark space is bad.
And Drudge.
Nemo
http://drudgereport.com/ (http://drudgereport.com/)
XI: SPREAD ACCELERATING
[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51249208[/url] ([url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51249208[/url])
'GRAVE SITUATION'
[url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/xi-says-china-faces-grave-situation-as-virus-toll-hits-41-idUSKBN1ZO005[/url] ([url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/xi-says-china-faces-grave-situation-as-virus-toll-hits-41-idUSKBN1ZO005[/url])
56 MILLION QUARANTINED
[url]https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10817933/coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-china/[/url] ([url]https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10817933/coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-china/[/url])
USA TO EVACUATE CITIZENS
[url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-plans-to-evacuate-citizens-from-epidemic-stricken-chinese-city-11579951256[/url] ([url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-plans-to-evacuate-citizens-from-epidemic-stricken-chinese-city-11579951256[/url])
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Well now they're saying it didn't start in the seafood market: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047646/no-link-seafood-market-first-case-china-coronavirus-chinese
(https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047646/no-link-seafood-market-first-case-china-coronavirus-chinese?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=article&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1579943097)
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I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.
Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo)
PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend
I know its bad netiquette to quote yourself.. But again the link above seems to have the best on the ground info I seen to so far anywhere..
also not sure if I posted it here yet but there were some questions in this thread.
Here is some data on viability of a related virus, "in the open"... I expect this strain to be in the same ballpark.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/ (https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/)
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I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.
Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo)
PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend
I know its bad netiquette to quote yourself.. But again the link above seems to have the best on the ground info I seen to so far anywhere..
also not sure if I posted it here yet but there were some questions in this thread.
Here is some data on viability of a related virus, "in the open"... I expect this strain to be in the same ballpark.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/ (https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/)
This video is fantastic Erick. Thanks!
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I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.
Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo)
PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend
I know its bad netiquette to quote yourself.. But again the link above seems to have the best on the ground info I seen to so far anywhere..
also not sure if I posted it here yet but there were some questions in this thread.
Here is some data on viability of a related virus, "in the open"... I expect this strain to be in the same ballpark.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/ (https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/)
This video is fantastic Erick. Thanks!
YW.. I been watching those guys for a while but someone turned me on to this truth on the ground vid..
I been sending it to my prepper group.
Of course its over a day old now and things move so fast I am looking for an update from those guys.. If they do one I will remember to post it on here.
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Also Interview with Dr Hatfield (I havent even watched it myself yet)
Dr Hatfield is not a medical doctor but an actual Virologist. Was suspected by the FBI in the Anthrax letter attacks BTW..
https://www.buzzsprout.com/794960/2574682-coronaviruses-alert-alert-alert?mc_cid=6157014cdc&mc_eid=5f62b43492 (https://www.buzzsprout.com/794960/2574682-coronaviruses-alert-alert-alert?mc_cid=6157014cdc&mc_eid=5f62b43492)
And here is Stefan M. doing an interview with a Hong Kong resident
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zEIQuRg-m4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zEIQuRg-m4)
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Get that extra jar of peanut butter.
Nemo
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Map of where its at.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-heat-map-johns-hopkins-university (https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-heat-map-johns-hopkins-university)
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Might be worth a read. Have to scroll down a bit to get to the virus info.
Nemo
https://threatjournal.com/archive/tj01252020.html
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I have Dr. Hatfield's book, and it's scary stuff. The interview is interesting. Essentially, the U.S. isn't prepared for this virus. Folks, we are on our own. Buy your last minute items and hunker down.
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I have Dr. Hatfield's book, and it's scary stuff. The interview is interesting. Essentially, the U.S. isn't prepared for this virus. Folks, we are on our own. Buy your last minute items and hunker down.
Dr H. does a great job explaining these things in a nuanced way.
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Dr. Hatfill was very explicit in the interview, the U.S. is not prepared for what is coming. We have a small window to get as prepared as we can. Once this gets rolling it will change the world. It's already changing China. It will be interesting to see how it effects the politics there. I'm still reading that over 100,000 people are infected, and the death rate is about 15%. I wonder how long it'll take before the average American notices that there's a serious problem.
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No country is truly prepared for this.
Again I am not saying doom and gloom (yet)
Only that I wasnt concerned about Ebola 2014, SARS and MERS but am concerned now.
The key question is... once you remove the warm meat markets, packet public transport and chinese lack of hygiene as an amplifier of this disease.. does it then still have an Ro sufficient to spread to a significant %age of the population in the USA?
We simply cannot answer this question yet, with a yes/no.
And it will 100% determine wether it will be a threat to US or not.
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Great perspective reminder there Eric.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
Geographically dispersed societies may weather something like this better than those with high population densities.
I am keeping a weary eye on this one. There is a significant chinese population here with the expected higher amount of travel to and from china.
That coupled with a higher population density here.
I do believe that the government here is missing an opportunity at the moment though. They should begin airing health advice Material to prime the populace and get them taking hygiene precautions now.
Not panicking really. We are in good shape to weather a storm if it comes. Just going to top up a few things.
Peace all.
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Another confirmed case in US. Orange County area.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/third-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-southern-california (https://www.foxnews.com/health/third-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-southern-california)
Coronavirus
Published 4 hours ago
California case of coronavirus is 3rd confirmed in US
By Brie Stimson | Fox News
The third case of coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in Southern California on Saturday, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency's Communicable Disease Control Division.
The patient had recently returned from Wuhan, China – epicenter of the outbreak that is believed to have killed at least 56 people -- and was in a hospital in good condition by Saturday evening, the agency said in a statement.
Officials didn't provide details about the infected patient but said there's no evidence anyone else in Orange County was exposed to the highly contagious virus.
. . .
continued
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Appears transmission ability strengthening. Drudge is really covering this. They usually go a day or so on something then lets it slide down for the next big news. Seems to me this is hanging on a bit more than usual.
Everyone out there has had your pneumonia vaccines, correct? Both the Pneumovax and Prevnar. Seems to me the pneumonia is becoming a big factor in the fatalities.
Nemo
http://news.trust.org/item/20200126105121-12mxo (http://news.trust.org/item/20200126105121-12mxo)
China scrambles to contain 'strengthening' virus
by Reuters
Sunday, 26 January 2020 14:51 GMT
(Adds comments from mayor of Wuhan)
* Coronavirus' transmission ability getting stronger
* Incubation 1-14 days, infectious during incubation
* China confirms 1,975 people infected, 56 dead
* U.S. to evacuate diplomatic staff, citizens from Wuhan
* China imposes temporary nationwide ban on sale of wildlife
By Gabriel D. Crossley and Cheng Leng
BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The ability of the new coronavirus to spread is strengthening and infections could continue to rise, China's National Health Commission said on Sunday, with more than 2,000 people in China infected and 56 killed by the disease.
Health authorities around the world are racing to prevent a pandemic after a handful of cases of infection were reported outside China, including in Thailand, Australia, the United States and France.
The mayor of Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, said he expected another 1,000 new patients in the city, which was stepping up construction of special hospitals.
The newly identified coronavirus has created alarm because much about it is still unknown, such as how dangerous it is and how easily it spreads between people. It can cause pneumonia, which has been deadly in some cases.
. . .
continued
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This one is a bit scary.
Nemo
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html)
China warns that coronavirus can spread before symptoms show, as death toll rises
By Joshua Berlinger, Brett McKeehan and Tara John, CNN
Updated 10:24 a.m. ET, January 26, 2020
There are more than 2,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and 56 deaths, worldwide as concern mounts about the rate of its spread.
Here's a rundown of what has been happening over the past few hours:
Outbreak in China: Some 1,975 cases were confirmed in mainland China, with full or partial lockdowns in 15 Chinese cities as authorities attempt to limit the virus's spread. The death toll rose to 56, with all cases occurring within the country.
Contagious before symptoms: People can spread the virus before symptoms show, China's health minister said Sunday. If he's correct, people who did not know they are ill have been spreading the virus. A veteran adviser for a US health agency called the news a "game changer."
. . .
continued
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This one is a bit scary.
Nemo
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html)
China warns that coronavirus can spread before symptoms show, as death toll rises
By Joshua Berlinger, Brett McKeehan and Tara John, CNN
Updated 10:24 a.m. ET, January 26, 2020
There are more than 2,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and 56 deaths, worldwide as concern mounts about the rate of its spread.
Here's a rundown of what has been happening over the past few hours:
Outbreak in China: Some 1,975 cases were confirmed in mainland China, with full or partial lockdowns in 15 Chinese cities as authorities attempt to limit the virus's spread. The death toll rose to 56, with all cases occurring within the country.
Contagious before symptoms: People can spread the virus before symptoms show, China's health minister said Sunday. If he's correct, people who did not know they are ill have been spreading the virus. A veteran adviser for a US health agency called the news a "game changer."
. . .
continued
DW has picked this up now too.. likely via the same one source though..
Its near unbelievable.. titer of virus in blood is very low during incubation period.. which is why its the incubation period.. stuff is still being uincubated... so if true obviously makes control MUCH harder..
Here is DW on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqUn71O0B6k (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqUn71O0B6k)
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Spread DURING incubation confirmed.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-spread-during-incubation-period-chinese-official-claims (https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-spread-during-incubation-period-chinese-official-claims)
Coronavirus
Published 1 hour ago
Coronavirus can be spread during incubation period, Chinese official claims
Alexandria Hein
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News
China’s health minister said he believes the novel coronavirus that has sickened over 2,000 and killed at least 81 can be spread during the incubation period, sparking fears that the virus may be more easily passed on than previously thought. National Health Minister Ma Xiaowei made the comments at a press briefing on Sunday and said that information on the virus was limited, making many risks unclear.
Ma said the incubation period for the novel coronavirus, identified by health officials as 2019-nCoV, can range from one to 14 days, during which it is infectious. While the virus was first linked to a large seafood and animal market in Wuhan, officials have since determined that it’s transmissible between humans.
Ma said the country was entering a “crucial” stage in the response efforts as “it seems like the ability of the virus to spread is getting stronger.”
The outbreak has caught the attention of health agencies worldwide, and while the World Health Organization (WHO) called it a “crisis” in China, it declined to declare it an international health emergency. However, that hasn’t stopped other health agencies from springing into action. Last week, the National Institutes of Health confirmed to Fox News that a possible vaccine for the virus was in “early stages” of development.
Elsewhere, authorities have been keeping their citizens informed and enforcing travel restrictions and advisories in an effort to contain the spread.
“At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) posted on its coronavirus information page.
The health agency warned that while person-to-person transmission had not yet been reported in the U.S., which has five confirmed cases in people who traveled to Wuhan, “it’s likely to occur to some extent.” However, officials maintain that risk to the general American public remains low.
As more countries reported cases in citizens who had traveled to the Wuhan region or in those who had contact with such travelers, Ma vowed that containment efforts in China would be intensified. As many as 50 million people are estimated to be affected by lockdowns that were imposed in 15 cities around Wuhan.
The country has also extended its week-long Lunar New Year celebration to Feb. 2 in an effort to prevent the virus from spreading further, while travel agencies were instructed to cancel group tourism and closely monitor travelers coming from the region.
Other governments are working on plans to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan, which has been quarantined since Jan. 22. Officials shut down the airport and public transportation and have forbidden people from leaving. As many as 13 other cities had enacted similar measures.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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SARS and MERS are also Corona Virii. They run between 10 and 40% fatalities.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-dangerous-is-coronavirus (https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-dangerous-is-coronavirus)
Coronavirus
Published 4 days ago
Last Update 3 mins ago
How dangerous is coronavirus?
Weeks after Chinese officials announced the outbreak of a new virus, over 2,700 people have been sickened and 80 have died, leading to questions of just how alarmed the public should be.
. . .
Most coronaviruses cause mild symptoms such as the common cold that patients easily recover from. Other strains of the virus such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) can cause pneumonia and possible death.
SARS killed 770 of 8,000 people infected in 2002-2003. MERS killed about three or four out of every 10 people infected, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.
. . .
continued
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If you can, stay off of airplanes till this over.
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Yes.. but keep in mind this..
In order to spread during incubation.. in other words in the absence of sneezing, coughing, nose blowing.. that is the usual vector... it means only close personal contact likely kissiing perhaps a close hug..
A person 2 feet from u who does not display symptoms will still not be infectious... unless u both get close up and personal
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Seems all over. This appears to be basic flu so far. Reportedly 40% of students, about 500 in school, 200 infected.
Nemo
https://www.wfxrtv.com/news/bath-county-schools-to-close-tuesday-wednesday-for-high-number-of-illness/ (https://www.wfxrtv.com/news/bath-county-schools-to-close-tuesday-wednesday-for-high-number-of-illness/)
Bath County schools to close Tuesday, Wednesday for high number of students, faculty with illness
by: Gary Boyer
Posted: Jan 27, 2020 / 05:24 PM EST / Updated: Jan 28, 2020 / 01:07 PM EST
BATH COUNTY, Va. (WFXR) – Officials with Bath County Public Schools have announced that schools will be closed on Tuesday and Wednesday due to what they are describing as a “large number of student and staff illness.”
During this time, they will have crews that will disinfect buildings and buses.
They are asking parents to monitor their children for flu-like symptoms.
If they show symptoms, they should be kept at home for at least 24 hours after their fever has broken.
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Expanding.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-by-the-numbers (https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-by-the-numbers)
Coronavirus
Published 1 hour ago
Last Update 56 mins ago
Coronavirus death toll increases, here's the latest update on cases
By David Aaro | Fox News
. . .
Here are the latest figures.
How many have been infected or have died?
The death toll from the virus rose to 170 on Thursday, with a total of 7,711 infected. Over the past 24 hours, 38 new deaths and 1,737 new infected cases have been reported.
bold added
Where is the virus?
Roughly 99 percent of new cases have appeared in China. Of the new deaths, 37 occurred in Hubei province, with one in the southwestern province of Sichuan. The virus has been reported in at least 16 countries globally.
The United States currently has 5 cases of the virus. Two in California, one in Arizona, one in Washington and one in Illinois, health officials say.
. . .
continued
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Yes, it is expanding. Look at how many people have recovered versus have died. More people are dying than recovering, though it is still too early to determine how this is going to play out. It's interesting that the Russians have instituted a ban on any Chinese entering their country, nice allies! I wonder how long it will take the U.S. to ban the Chinese. The supply chain is in for a hell of a shock.
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The asymptomatic yet still infectious is going to be a problem. I think it still a bit early to say this could be a big one, but with the way all things are going-- this could be a big one.
Get that extra case of peanut butter.
Nemo
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Wait until it gets into some of the slum type areas in India, Mid East, Africa countries. Or getting into the homeless population in L.A. elsewhere.
Nemo
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-counts-170-virus-deaths-new-countries-find-infections/ar-BBZq4be (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-counts-170-virus-deaths-new-countries-find-infections/ar-BBZq4be)
Associated Press
China counts 170 virus deaths, new countries find infections
By KEN MORITSUGU, Associated Press
3 hrs ago
. . .
India and the Philippines reported their first cases, in a traveler and a student who had both been in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the new type of coronavirus first surfaced in December. South Korea confirmed a case that was locally spread, in a man who had contact with a patient diagnosed earlier.
. . .
The new virus has now infected more people in China than were sickened there during the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS, another type of coronavirus.
Thursday’s figures for mainland China cover the previous 24 hours and represent an increase of 38 deaths and 1,737 cases for a total of 7,711. Of the new deaths, 37 were in Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, and one was in the southwestern province of Sichuan.
. . .
continued
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Yeah, LA and NYC are going to go down hard, if the virus gets established. Re-reading Hatfill's "Three Seconds To Midnight" and re-reading "Expedition Home" by Skip Hofstrand, MD. "Expedition Home" gets into the intricacies of self-quarantine. Dr. Hofstrand stresses that there needs to be strict rules that need to be followed, and the virus should be considered as a dangerous, deadly enemy. It's important to consider how the supply chain is going to be effected, and of course, the economy. I'm trying to stock up on items that are not produced in the U.S., i.e., nails, screws and pharmaceuticals, and the list goes on and on.
It'll be interesting to see how the leftists and progressives react to pandemic. I expect that there will be high death rates in the urban areas, which could effect politics for decades to come.
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Its here. Its spreading. Wife to hubby first. Then . . ..
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/person-to-person-transmission-coronavirus-reported-in-us-cdc (https://www.foxnews.com/health/person-to-person-transmission-coronavirus-reported-in-us-cdc)
Coronavirus
Published 1 hour ago
Person-to-person transmission of coronavirus reported in US, CDC says
Alexandria Hein
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported the first case of person-to-person transmission of coronavirus in the United States. In a telebriefing on Thursday, officials said the patient is the husband of a Chicago woman who was diagnosed with the illness after returning from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the virus.
The case marks the sixth coronavirus illness confirmed in the U.S., and the second in Illinois.
Dr. Robert Redfield, the CDC director, said the health agency had expected to identify "some" person-to-person spread in the U.S., and insisted that the risk to the American public "remains low." Officials stressed that the husband, who did not travel to China and is in his 60s with underlying health issues, and his wife had continued close contact while she was symptomatic, exposing him to the virus.
Both patients remain hospitalized and the man is stable. The woman, who is also in her 60s and was the first travel-related case confirmed in Illinois, is said to be "doing well." Illinois officials declined to identify which hospital is treating the patients.
. . .
continued
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Latest reported numbers, if true, in China 213 dead and just under 10,000 confirmed infected.
I know this has a lot of people worried but compared to these numbers for the current US influenza season, pretty minor at this point.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm)
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Let's see, going from 300 or so to 15,238(as of today's report) in a week is serious, the growth is exponential. The normal flu doesn't have the coronavirus growth rate. Also look at the actual recovery numbers versus the death numbers. Most folks recover from the average flu, but we don't yet have accurate numbers related to this new Kung Flu. And now China is demanding that all Wuhan citizens must return to China. What's up with that? We're missing some pieces of the virus puzzle.
If this novel coronavirus gets a foothold in the U.S., then all bets are off. I still suggest keeping a close watch on it, and keep your preps topped off.
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I find the asymptomatic carriers interesting. - im wondering if there is some local immunity.
this reminds me of influenza - its a constantly mutating RNA virus. Influenza ranges from a runny nose to the 1918 version (%10ish fatality rate).
without a local reservoir, how bad can this get? a flash and its over but for the clean up. Influenza has several reservoirs that travel far and wide - birds come to mind. I don't see a a mass migration of civets or kraits in our near future. I do wonder what the amplifier was.
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It's interesting that the CDC is declaring a Public Health Emergency over something as "harmless" as the novel coronavirus. Time to panic, seriously.
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Russia closed its border too.
This is certainly checking a lot of my "This is it" checkmarks.
Not all of them though.
We are not one step away from the Walking Dead yet.
Do not max out your credit cars for extra food (yet).
Lethality is still quite low... mutations are usually towards LESS lethality not more.. (makes sense why.. when u think about it .. otherwise I will gladly explain)
The biggset danger is still that this will bring down the grid due to whitespread panic.
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Well, taking my cue from the movie 2012, when the government says don't panic, then that's the time to panic.
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Well, taking my cue from the movie 2012, when the government says don't panic, then that's the time to panic.
Great quote from a hyperbolic but entertaining movie.
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I did just read this:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-china-accuses-us-of-spreading-panic-live-updates/a-52238408 (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-china-accuses-us-of-spreading-panic-live-updates/a-52238408)
12:44 Chinese scientists say they have evidence that the new coronavirus originated in bats.
In a study published in the science journal Nature on Monday, scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology said that in seven human cases of the virus, genome sequences were found to be 96% identical to a coronavirus found in bats.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, which infected hundreds of people in 2002 and 2003, is also thought to have originated in bats.
Has everyone seen the movie Contagion? Very similar.
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The bat vector is one possibility, yet other researchers are suggesting that it was bio-engineered: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf) It is an amazing coincidence that the virus originated in the one Chinese city that has a level 4 biolab. One way or another, the genie is out of the bottle.
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Jackalope, what linked you into that?
Also see below. First minutes give background. For details look around the 48 minute mark.
Nemo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9hBUi9sVYs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9hBUi9sVYs)
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Seems Zero Hedge has some info source we don't.
Nemo
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-cant-let-my-mom-die-home-desperate-patients-swarm-wuhan-hospital-hong-kong-closes (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-cant-let-my-mom-die-home-desperate-patients-swarm-wuhan-hospital-hong-kong-closes)
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Try looking at this from a new perspective. Deaths v Confirmed Survivors. Remove the several thousand still ill and not in either category from consideration.
Look at the end of the illness. Calculated from recent stats.
424 dead, 727 confirmed cleared = a 37% death rate. Hopefully the remaining 19,550 all survive and we can then say 2.2%.
This may be as bad or worse than quite a few are thinking.
Erick, your thoughts on this this analysis?
Nemo
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Try looking at this from a new perspective. Deaths v Confirmed Survivors. Remove the several thousand still ill and not in either category from consideration.
Look at the end of the illness. Calculated from recent stats.
424 dead, 727 confirmed cleared = a 37% death rate. Hopefully the remaining 19,550 all survive and we can then say 2.2%.
This may be as bad or worse than quite a few are thinking.
Erick, your thoughts on this this analysis?
Nemo
Nemo, you bring up an excellent point that I was thinking about also:
Even thought the deathrate is low... but that is based on who has died SO FAR among 20,000 infected, many mahy others may yet still be waiting to die since they have NOT recovered..... perhaps even in great numbers.. And the prevalence of older folks , or immunocompromised folks among the dead may simply mean the young/healthy take longer to die.
This would certainly be a worst case interpretation .. but as yet still a plausible one..
Simply based on reported data that is..
There are to things that indicate to push the death rate up and down..;
a) the exact point you made 20,000 haven't recovered yet... the recovered folks vs the dead folks paints MUCH greater death rate as explained above....
but also
b) Since we figure there are many many more infected than even the Chinese even know about.. it is conceivable a model pointing to a LOWER death rate as well.
Why? Because in a epidemic especially in the beginning (which is were are data is still mostly rooted in) the data self select for the most severe cases..(unless u r very ill u dont go to the hospital, or get admitted)
So we could have 200,000 more infected right now that are asymptomatic or so mild they dont bother to go to the hospital because they think its something else... since they associate 2019-nCorv with severe illness....
The bad part of this phenomenon is this.. it turbocharges the infection..... the good part it is an indicator for a much lower death rate.. because if we have really 200,000 infected the deaths.. even if they are only "as yet" deaths suddenly are a much lower %age.
So we have two "data models" so to speak in our "nowcasting" to interpret whats is really going on... they push in the opposite direction..
Again.. our low recovery rate compared to deaths suggests a much higher death rate than reported, while at the same time the widespread suspicion of huge additional numbers of Chinese citizens infected would support the opposite conclusion.
Which of these two factors is more dominant we will find out in the near future... but we have two plausible models that each suggest the opposite of each other.
I hope my explanation made sense.
PS: Another complication factor is this.... even if the death rate really is as low as we currently think (and it might be or not) this is achieved with treatments via ventilators to address ARDS.
If there are so many sick PPL a national medical system can run out of ventilators and then we will see a serious jump by orders of magnitude in deaths... or a grid down would case same.. so lots of competing models that are equally plausible... the good news is now that its in the West we should have better data soon.
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You give the Daily Star the credibility you think appropriate. Its well known as more of a National Enquirer type paper.
Nemo
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098 (https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098)
Fears thick 'death' smog over Wuhan confirms China is burning coronavirus bodies
Several Chinese people voiced their concern over the fog which has engulfed Wuhan. It's fuelled fears the death toll inside coronavirus-hit China is higher than what has been reported
By Emma Parker
11:39, 4 FEB 2020
Updated16:13, 4 FEB 2020
Eerie footage of Wuhan engulfed in a thick fog has fuelled concerns the death toll inside coronavirus-hit China is “higher” than what’s been officially reported.
Clips appear to show the city in a mysterious haze which residents say has “come out of nowhere”.
The videos have led to concerns that the smog is the result of smoke from crematoriums burning coronavirus-infected bodies "24 hours a day".
It comes a day after the National Health Commission in China ordered all coronavirus fatalities to be cremated, with burials and funerals banned, to prevent to spread of disease.
Chinese nationals voiced their concerns on social media, suggesting the death toll could be "unthinkably higher" than reports if incinerators are running all day.
. . .
continued
-
You give the Daily Star the credibility you think appropriate. Its well known as more of a National Enquirer type paper.
Nemo
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098 (https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098)
Fears thick 'death' smog over Wuhan confirms China is burning coronavirus bodies
Several Chinese people voiced their concern over the fog which has engulfed Wuhan. It's fuelled fears the death toll inside coronavirus-hit China is higher than what has been reported
By Emma Parker
11:39, 4 FEB 2020
Updated16:13, 4 FEB 2020
Eerie footage of Wuhan engulfed in a thick fog has fuelled concerns the death toll inside coronavirus-hit China is “higher” than what’s been officially reported.
Clips appear to show the city in a mysterious haze which residents say has “come out of nowhere”.
The videos have led to concerns that the smog is the result of smoke from crematoriums burning coronavirus-infected bodies "24 hours a day".
It comes a day after the National Health Commission in China ordered all coronavirus fatalities to be cremated, with burials and funerals banned, to prevent to spread of disease.
Chinese nationals voiced their concerns on social media, suggesting the death toll could be "unthinkably higher" than reports if incinerators are running all day.
. . .
continued
I have no onion one way on another on this.. too much of whats in the news is sensationalized.. (while admittedly the Chinese do try to lower the numbers they publish in various ways).
If its true more reports will come out.
I am in a very different time zone and its the middle of the night here.
signing off for today.
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And here's another viewpoint: https://www.theepochtimes.com/did-chinas-plan-to-destroy-the-united-states-backfire_3223117.html (https://www.theepochtimes.com/did-chinas-plan-to-destroy-the-united-states-backfire_3223117.html)
-
Mmmmmm?
-
Update.
Nemo
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/06/coronavirus-death-toll-breaks-record-again-with-73-dead-in-one-day/ (https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/06/coronavirus-death-toll-breaks-record-again-with-73-dead-in-one-day/)
Coronavirus Death Toll Breaks Record Again with 73 Dead in One Day
Frances Martel, 6 Feb 2020
China logged the deadliest day on record on Wednesday since the novel coronavirus outbreak afflicting the nation began in December, breaking a record set only on Tuesday and defying clamor from state propaganda outlets last week that the rates of infection and death were declining.
At press time, Chinese and global health officials have confirmed 28,396 cases of the coronavirus, identified only on January 20, and 566 patients dying from the disease. Only three of these have died outside of China. Officials also claimed that 1,341 people have recovered from coronavirus infection, suggesting that a significant number of those infected do overcome the illness.
The South China Morning Post noted on Thursday that Chinese officials documented 73 deaths between Wednesday and Thursday, the highest recorded in one day. That number was 64 deaths on Tuesday, the previous record.
The number of documented cases on Wednesday fell compared to Tuesday, however.
“The last time the rise in new infection figures slowed was January 28, after the daily increase in confirmed cases again rose on Tuesday – 3,887 in China, of which 3,156 were in Hubei,” the Post noted.
Among the new patients are newborn infants whose mothers are carriers of the virus, suggesting that the virus may infect in utero. Doctors have emphasized the potential that the children contracted the virus after being born, as the first patient tested positive for the virus 30 hours after being born, so no confirmation exists yet that the new infection route in the mother’s womb exists.
The current official mortality rate of the virus is hovering around two percent and includes a significant percentage of older patients and at-risk patients with prior illnesses. This number may be significantly inflated by the fact that Chinese officials did not tell health workers in Wuhan, the city where the virus originated, that the virus was contagious through the breath of a carrier, so hospitals did not isolate potential carriers, spreading the disease to people already hospitalized. The Chinese government also held a banquet for 130,000 people the weekend before it announced it had identified the virus, targeting older “empty nest” residents of Wuhan.
“Be cautious and say no to family banquet amid coronavirus outbreak: a family reunion among 9 people in Nanjing, East China’s Jiangsu, contaminated 8 while 1 initially became a virus spreader,” the Chinese state propaganda outlet Global Times warned on Thursday, over two weeks after the state-sponsored banquet.
The Global Times also reported on Thursday that “a type of herbal soup” has allegedly cured 90 percent of coronavirus patients who drank it and that the Chinese government is issuing awards to doctors who initially responded to the outbreak.
While the government hands out rewards, locals in Wuhan report “severe” hospital bed shortages despite the alleged construction of an entirely new hospital in Wuhan in little over a week.
“Despite authorities building a hospital from scratch and converting public buildings to accommodate thousands of extra patients, there was still a ‘severe’ lack of beds, said Hu Lishan, an official in Wuhan,” the Hong Kong Free Press (HKFP) reported. “There was also a shortage of ‘equipment and materials,’ he told reporters, adding that officials were looking to convert other hotels and schools in the city into treatment centres.”
Hong Kong has documented 22 cases of the virus so far, a number that increased by one on Wednesday. The outbreak has triggered a city-wide health workers strike, attracting thousands of doctors, nurses, medical assistants, and others, who are demanding that the Hong Kong government shut its border entirely with China. The health workers are also demanding more support in the form of medical equipment like face masks and other sanitary items, complaining that the open border allows Chinese who do not trust the crumbling healthcare infrastructure of their country to flood Hong Kong’s hospitals, putting strain on the local healthcare system. The health workers have been on strike since Monday.
The Hong Kong government has refused to shut the border. Instead, the government announced on Wednesday that it would require anyone entering Hong Kong through China to undergo a mandatory 14-day quarantine to prevent them from potentially spreading the virus. Doctors believe that patients carrying the virus will show symptoms within this two-week period.
The accelerating death rate calls into question the Chinese National Health Commission’s insistence that the rate of infection in the country was declining last week, suggesting that the viral outbreak had peaked. Last Wednesday, the Global Times noted that, between that Tuesday and Wednesday, the number of cases documented had slightly declined, calling it a “gleam of hope.” At the time of publication of the article, widespread reports from individuals in Wuhan and health workers there suggested that the Chinese government was deliberately failing to test individuals exhibiting the tell-tale fever, coughing, and difficulty breathing associated with the new coronavirus. Anonymous medical staff in Wuhan told various outlets that their supply of testing kits to confirm illnesses was limited and the government only allowed testing on pre-approved patients, resulting in many who went to hospitals asking to be tested being turned down.
Chinese officials have also been extremely secretive about the cases of coronavirus documented in Xinjiang, China’s westernmost province located hundreds of miles from Wuhan. Xinjiang is home to a complex system of hundreds of concentration camps designed to indoctrinate, sterilize, enslave, and use for organ harvesting millions of Muslims, most belonging to the regions Uyghur ethnic minority. Survivors of the camps report people dying regularly and extremely unhygienic conditions in the camps that make prisoners particularly vulnerable to an outbreak of a deadly virus. Officials there are considering the condition and number of cases of coronavirus in the region a “state secret,” leading many to question the authenticity of the number of cases there.
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Numbers reliable?
Nemo
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10904402/coronavirus-chinese-media-giant-lists-deaths-as-24589/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10904402/coronavirus-chinese-media-giant-lists-deaths-as-24589/)
COVER UP? Coronavirus – Chinese media giant lists death toll at 24,589 but quickly changes to 304 sparking conspiracies
Emily Prescott
6 Feb 2020, 9:19Updated: 6 Feb 2020, 14:27
A CHINESE media giant has sparked conspiracy theories after appearing to publish the coronavirus death toll as more than 24,589 - before changing it to 304.
Tencent, the multinational tech company that developed WeChat, reportedly listed figures for the coronavirus on Saturday showing 154,023 were infected.
. . .
continued
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Here's an interesting press release from the Department of Defense: https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2076940/dod-statement-on-additional-request-from-hhs/source/GovDelivery/ (https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2076940/dod-statement-on-additional-request-from-hhs/source/GovDelivery/)
I'm curious why they're putting a limiting date of February 22nd. I thought it was interesting that they specifically state that DOD personnel would not have direct contact with quarantined individuals. I wonder if they're getting either push back from the troops, or if they're concerned about possibly infecting military personnel.
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More good, detailed, comprehensive info. Sorry, I didn't have time to edit it all purty.
Nemo
https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html (https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html)
Coronavirus cases spike on cruise ship: Live updates on 2019-nCoV
By Live Science Staff 2 hours ago
Here's a look at what you need to know about the new virus.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship sits docked at Daikoku Pier where newly diagnosed coronavirus cases are taken for treatment on Feb. 7, 2020.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship sits docked at Daikoku Pier where newly diagnosed coronavirus cases are taken for treatment on Feb. 7, 2020.
(Image: © Carl Court/Getty Images)
A newly identified coronavirus called 2019-nCoV has been spreading in China, and has now reached multiple other countries. Here's what you need to know.
Update on Friday, Feb. 7 (ET):
—Officials have screened 273 of the passengers quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise ship off Japan, with 61 individuals testing positive so far.
—The 34-year-old Chinese doctor who was silenced by police for warning about the coronavirus outbreak has died after contracting that virus. China's Communist Party has said it will send a team to investigate the death, The New York Times reported.
—About 31,523 individuals globally (primarily in mainland China) have been confirmed to have the new coronavirus, according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.
—638 deaths linked to the virus. Deaths in mainland China exceed those from SARS.
—Wuhan officials plan to round up those suspected of being infected into mass quarantine camps, The New York Times reported.
—Two deaths linked to the virus outside of mainland China to date.
—A person in Wisconsin has tested positive for 2019-nCoV, marking the first case in the state and the 12th case in the U.S., officials announced Wednesday (Feb. 5).
—Flights carrying passengers from China will be rerouted to one of 11 U.S. airports, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security; Those airports are: John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, O'Hare International Airport in Illinois, San Francisco International Airport, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Honolulu, Los Angeles International Airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Dulles International Airport in Virginia, Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport in Texas and Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport in Michigan.
— U.S. citizens, permanent residents and immediate family who have visited China's Hubei province will now undergo a mandatory two-week quarantine.
Number of coronavirus cases
Mainland China: 31,205
Thailand: 25
Japan: 25 (plus 61 on cruise ship off coast)
Singapore: 30
Hong Kong: 25
South Korea: 24
Taiwan: 16
Australia: 15
Malaysia: 12
Germany: 12
Macau: 10
U.S.: 12
France: 6
United Arab Emirates: 5
Canada: 7
Italy: 2
Russia: 2
UK: 2
Vietnam: 10
Cambodia: 1
Belgium: 1
Finland: 1
India: 3
Nepal: 1
Philippines: 2
Spain: 1
Sri Lanka: 1
Sweden: 1
Coronavirus quarantine in Wuhan
Wuhan plans to round up those suspected of having the virus to be placed in isolation, in some kind of mass quarantine camps, The New York Times reported. China's Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said that city officials should go door to door to check residents' temperatures and to interview those in contact with infected individuals, the Times reported.
"Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever," Sun said, according to the Times.
The Times is reporting a shortage of medical supplies, coronavirus-testing kits and hospital beds due to the lockdown in the city and surrounding area, leading to people walking on foot from hospital to hospital, only to be turned away.
Who will be quarantined in the US?
Officials announced on Friday (Jan. 31) that the U.S. will be enforcing quarantines on citizens who have traveled to the Hubei Province (where the outbreak originated) in the last 14 days. If U.S. citizens have been to China in the last 14 days, they will be rerouted to one of eleven airports (see above) across the country to be screened for the new coronavirus, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
If passengers who have traveled to China are showing symptoms of the virus (which include a cough, trouble breathing or fever) they will be subject to mandatory quarantines. If passengers who have traveled to China (outside of the Hubei province) show no symptoms after being screened at one of the 11 airports, they will be re-booked to their destinations within the U.S. and asked to self-quarantine at home, according to the DHS.
Other travelers who haven't been to China but are found to be on the same flight of passengers that have been to China might also be rerouted to one of the 11 airports, according to the DHS. What's more, in general "foreign nationals" who have traveled to China in the past 14 days won't be allowed in the U.S.
The details of those quarantines, such as where people will stay, are not yet clear, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said during a teleconference on Feb. 3.
The only people currently under quarantine are the 195 passengers that the U.S. flew back from Wuhan on Jan.29. They are staying at the March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, California. The last time such a quarantine was put in place was over 50 years ago for a smallpox scare.
What is a coronavirus?
CLOSE
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that can cause respiratory illnesses such as the common cold, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Most people get infected with coronaviruses at one point in their lives, but symptoms are typically mild to moderate. In some cases, the viruses can cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses such as pneumonia and bronchitis.
These viruses are common amongst animals worldwide, but only a handful of them are known to affect humans. Rarely, coronaviruses can evolve and spread from animals to humans. This is what happened with the coronaviruses known as the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov), both of which are known to cause more severe symptoms.
Where did the new coronavirus come from?
a closeup on the face of a horseshoe bat(Image credit: Shutterstock)
Since the virus first popped up in Wuhan in people who had visited a local seafood and animal market (called the Huanan seafood market), officials could only say it likely hopped from an animal to humans. In a new study, however, the researchers compared the 2019-nCoV genetic sequence with those in a library of viral sequences, and found that the most closely related viruses were two coronaviruses that originated in bats; both of those coronaviruses shared 88% of their genetic sequence with that of 2019-nCoV.
Based on these results, the authors said the 2019-nCoV likely originated in bats. However, no bats were sold at the Huanan seafood market, which suggests that another yet-to-be-identified animal acted as a steppingstone of sorts to transmit the virus to humans.
A previous study suggested snakes, which were sold at the Huanan seafood market, as a possible source of 2019-nCoV. However, some experts have criticized the study, saying it's unclear if coronaviruses can infect snakes.
Does the coronavirus have an official name?
A person signing a document.(Image credit: Shutterstock)
No, neither the virus nor the disease it causes have official names yet. On Jan. 30, WHO proposed calling the disease "2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease," and the virus "2019-nCoV." (In these names, the "‘n" stands for novel and "CoV" is for coronavirus.) WHO will need to seek approval for the name from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The final decision on the virus' official name will be made by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, according to WHO.
In a report published on Jan. 29, researchers in China referred to the disease as novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia, or NCIP.
WHO discourages naming new viruses after geographic locations, people, species or classes of animals or foods, according to the organization's Best Practices for the Naming of New Human Infectious Diseases. Rather, WHO encourages use of descriptive terms of a disease, such as "respiratory disease" and "neurologic syndrome," as well as "severe" or "progressive." The organization also says that if a pathogen is known, it should be used as part of the disease's name.
How does the coronavirus spread between people?
coronavirus diagram, showing the virus infecting lungs.(Image credit: Shutterstock)
On Jan. 30, the CDC identified the first case of person-to-person spread in the United States. As of Feb. 2, cases involving individuals who had not recently traveled to China have been confirmed in: the U.S., Thailand, Taiwan, Germany, Vietnam, Japan and France, the Times reported.
In terms of how one would catch the virus, the CDC says that human coronaviruses are most commonly spread between an infected person and others via:
—the air (from viral particles from a cough or sneeze);
—close personal contact (touching or shaking hands);
—an object or surface with viral particles on it (then touching your mouth, nose or eyes before washing your hands);
—and rarely from fecal contamination.
Deaths from coronavirus outside China
A 44-year-old man in the Philippines has become the second person there infected with the novel coronavirus and the first known death linked to the virus outside of China, according to the Department of Health of the Republic of the Philippines. The man died on Feb. 1, the DOH said in a statement, adding: "Our thoughts are with his family at this difficult time."
On Feb. 4, a 39-year-old man died from 2019-nCoV in Hong Kong, according to the New York Times. It's the first death in Hong Kong and the second outside mainland China.
Could this virus cause a pandemic?
People wear face masks as they wait at Hankou Railway Station on Jan. 22, 2020, in Wuhan, China, where the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV originated.(Image credit: Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images)
In order for this virus, or any, to lead to a pandemic in humans, it needs to do three things: efficiently infect humans, replicate in humans and then spread easily among humans, Live Science previously reported. Right now, its unclear how easily the virus spreads from person to person.
To determine how easily the virus spreads, scientists will need to calculate what's known as the "basic reproduction number, or R0 (pronounced R-nought.) This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people. This is similar to previous estimates, which have placed the R0 value between 2 and 3. (For comparison, SARS initially had an R0 of around 3, before public health measures brought it down to less than 1.)
In general, a virus will continue to spread if it has an R value of greater than 1, and so public health measures to stem the outbreak should aim to reduce R0 to less than one, the authors of the NEJM paper said.
The CDC says outbreaks of new viruses are always concerning. However, the agency says the immediate risk to the American public remains low, given the small number of cases and limited spread of the virus here.
Still, an individual's risk of infection "depends on exposure," the CDC said. Some people, including health care workers and those with close contacts infected with 2019-nCoV, are at increased risk of infection, the agency said.
On Jan. 30, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the new coronavirus outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern. The main reason for the declaration is concern that the virus could spread to countries with weaker health systems, WHO said.
How does coronavirus compare to SARS and MERS?
A highly magnified picture of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV).(Image credit: CDC/Cynthia Goldsmith, Azaibi Tamin)
As of Feb. 3, a reported 362 individuals have died (just one of those outside of mainland China), exceeding the death toll from SARS in mainland China — which was 349, according to The New York Times.
MERS and SARS have both been known to cause severe symptoms in people. It's unclear how the new coronavirus will compare in severity, as it has caused severe symptoms and death in some patients while causing only mild illness in others, according to the CDC. All three of the coronaviruses can be transmitted between humans through close contact.
MERS, which was transmitted from touching infected camels or consuming their meat or milk, was first reported in 2012 in Saudi Arabia and has mostly been contained in the Arabian Peninsula, according to NPR. SARS was first reported in 2002 in southern China (no new cases have been reported since 2004) and is thought to have spread from bats that infected civets. The new coronavirus was likely transmitted from touching or eating an infected animal in Wuhan.
During the SARS outbreak, the virus killed about 1 in 10 people who were infected. The death rate from 2019-nCoV isn't yet known. In the beginning of an outbreak, the initial cases that are identified "skew to the severe," which may make the mortality rate seem higher than it is, Alex Azar, secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Homeland Security (HHS), said during a news briefing on Tuesday (Jan. 28). The mortality rate may drop as more mild cases are identified, Azar said.
Currently, most of the patients who have died from the infection have been older than 60 and have had preexisting conditions.
What are the symptoms of the new coronavirus and how do you treat it?
Symptoms of the new coronavirus include fever, cough and difficulty breathing, according to the CDC. It's estimated that symptoms may appear as soon as two days or as long as 14 days after exposure, the CDC said. The NEJM study published on Jan. 29 estimated that, on average, people show symptoms about five days after they are infected.
There are no specific treatments for coronavirus infections and most people will recover on their own, according to the CDC. So treatment involves rest and medication to relieve symptoms. A humidifier or hot shower can help to relieve a sore throat and cough. If you are mildly sick, you should drink a lot of fluids and rest but if you are worried about your symptoms, you should see a healthcare provider, they wrote. (This is advice for all coronaviruses, not specifically aimed toward the new virus).
There is no vaccine for the new coronavirus, but researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health confirmed they were in preliminary stages of developing one. Officials plan to launch a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine within the next three months, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a news conference on Jan. 28.
Researchers are also working on gathering samples of the virus to design a therapy that will train patients' immune cells to detect and destroy the virus, Facui said.
What is being done to stop the spread of the coronavirus?
Health officers screen arriving passengers from China with thermal scanners at Changi International airport in Singapore on Jan. 22, 2020, as authorities increased measures against the spread of the newfound coronavirus.Health officers screen arriving passengers from China with thermal scanners at Changi International airport in Singapore on Jan. 22, 2020, as authorities increased measures against the spread of the newfound coronavirus. (Image credit: ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP via Getty Images)
The Chinese government put Wuhan and many other nearby cities on "lockdown," meaning people are not allowed in or out of the area, according to The New York Times.
The governments of both Taiwan and Hong Kong have said they would not allow in anyone from the Hubei Province (where Wuhan is located).
Major airports in the U.S. are conducting screenings to try to check for symptoms of the virus. On Jan. 28, CDC officials announced that 15 additional U.S. airports will begin screening travelers for the virus, bringing the total number of airports conducting screening in the U.S. to 20. The CDC also recommends that Americans avoid all nonessential travel to China.
Nearly 200 Americans have been evacuated from Wuhan and will be monitored for 14 days for signs of infection, according to CNN.
The Chinese government has banned the sale of wildlife in markets, restaurants and online.
Also, starting Sunday, Feb. 2, U.S. citizens, permanent residents and immediate family who have visited China's Hubei province will undergo a mandatory two-week quarantine. And "foreign nationals" who have traveled to China in the past 14 days won't be allowed in the U.S., officials said. If Americans visited any other part of China, they will be screened at airports and asked to self-quarantine for 14 days.
Australia is also barring entry to non-citizens who have recently visited China.
How can people protect themselves and others?
A woman wearing a face mask on a flight.(Image credit: Shutterstock)
The best way to prevent infection with 2019-nCoV is to avoid being exposed to the virus, according to the CDC. In general, the CDC recommends the following to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands; avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick and clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
If traveling to China, you should avoid contact with sick people, avoid dead or alive animals, animal markets or products that come from animals such as uncooked meat, the CDC said.
People who traveled to China and became sick with fever, cough or difficulty breathing within the following two weeks should seek medical care right away, and call ahead to inform medical staff about their recent travel, the CDC said.
Jeanna Bryner, Rachael Rettner, Yasemin Saplakoglu and Nicoletta Lanese contributed reporting.
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Let's see, 400 million people are now quarantined, yet there has only been 638 deaths. That's a load of bull manure. We still aren't getting the full picture. Anyways, here's more from Zerohedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine)
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More news. Click link and check map. Looks like all of China should be quarantined.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-deaths-in-china-grow-to-772-more-than-34500-cases-reported (https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-deaths-in-china-grow-to-772-more-than-34500-cases-reported)
Coronavirus
Published 2 hours ago
Coronavirus deaths in China grow to 722, more than 34,500 cases reported
By Louis Casiano | Fox News
China increased its death toll from the coronavirus Friday to 722, while new cases jumped to 34,546, according to reports.
Chinese officials are still trying to stem the flow of infections in the mainland as the virus continues to spread globally. The country's ruling Communist Party is also dealing with public anger over the death of a doctor who was detained and threatened by authorities for spreading early warnings of the illness in December.
Dr. Li Wenliang, 34, an ophthalmologist, contracted the virus while treating patients at a hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak that has since been sealed off, Authorities said it will “fully investigate relevant issues raised by the public" in response to his death.
China has also sealed off as have 17 other cities in an effort to prevent infections. Other countries are also taking extra measures.
Cruise passengers in Japan are being quarantined amid reports of 61 cases. Japanese officials also turned another ship away, the Holland America’s Westerdam. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he suspected some passengers on the vessel had been infected.
In a phone with President Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the U.S. to “respond reasonably” to the outbreak. He echoed concerns from Chinese officials that some countries are overreacting to the outbreak by placing restrictions on Chinese travelers.
SOUTH KOREANS 'HOARDING' CORONAVIRUS MASKS COULD FACE JAIL TIME, HEFTY FINES
Separating coronavirus fact from fiction
continued
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Its increased to about 35,000 infections and 800+ deaths in China. But when it gets going in Africa the whole world better look out and get that extra jar of peanut butter.
Nemo
https://onenewsnow.com/ap/world/we-re-definitely-not-prepared-africa-braces-for-new-virus
‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus
Associated Press
LUSAKA, Zambia (February 8, 2020) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.
The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.
Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.
But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.
“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.
Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.
. . .
Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.
. . .
continued
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For those folks planning on bugging in long term, and growing your own food, don't forget to obtain lots of canning supplies.
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Its in Africa. Get ready world It gets going there anticipate migration to Europe and more developed countries like a daily D-Day invasion.
Nemo
Note date of report.
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/what-is-coronavirus-latest-updates-first-case-reported-in-africa/ (https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/what-is-coronavirus-latest-updates-first-case-reported-in-africa/)
And now the rest of the world is starting to pay attention to Africa.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/nation-world/african-countries-worry-about-coronavirus-preparedness/285-59bae02d-55c1-418a-90df-885061d01b26 (https://www.khou.com/article/news/nation-world/african-countries-worry-about-coronavirus-preparedness/285-59bae02d-55c1-418a-90df-885061d01b26)
Flights between China and Africa being reduced.
https://qz.com/africa/1799481/coronavirus-fears-pressures-ethiopian-airlines-to-cut-china-flights/ (https://qz.com/africa/1799481/coronavirus-fears-pressures-ethiopian-airlines-to-cut-china-flights/)
Get Ready world.
Nemo
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Details on Africa.
Nemo
Its increased to about 35,000 infections and 800+ deaths in China. But when it gets going in Africa the whole world better look out and get that extra jar of peanut butter.
Nemo
https://onenewsnow.com/ap/world/we-re-definitely-not-prepared-africa-braces-for-new-virus
‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus
Associated Press
LUSAKA, Zambia (February 8, 2020) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.
The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.
Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.
But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.
“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.
Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.
. . .
Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.
. . .
continued
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Details on Africa.
Nemo
Its increased to about 35,000 infections and 800+ deaths in China. But when it gets going in Africa the whole world better look out and get that extra jar of peanut butter.
Nemo
https://onenewsnow.com/ap/world/we-re-definitely-not-prepared-africa-braces-for-new-virus
‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus
Associated Press
LUSAKA, Zambia (February 8, 2020) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.
The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.
Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.
But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.
“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.
Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.
. . .
Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.
. . .
continued
Is there a link to the AP News article directly?
I cannot find it on their website.
Thanks
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Try this.
Nemo
https://apnews.com/e11a9c5801264262e0b2f8661408b32a
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Newest numbers. Fatality rate from total infections is now running about 20%. But my thinking methods show the increase in infections over past several days is skewing that downward.
Nemo
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Total Confirmed
40,574
Total Deaths
910
Total Recovered
3,578
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Cool.....
Thank you Nemo
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WHO has a bit of a problem with and fear of what this could turn into. Might get a extra box or 2 for the pantry and safe.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-very-grave-threat-for-world-who (https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-very-grave-threat-for-world-who)
Outbreaks
Published 26 mins ago
Coronavirus outbreak 'very grave threat' for rest of world: WHO
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News
A day after a team of World Health Organization (WHO) medical experts arrived in China to help investigate the deadly coronavirus outbreak, the health agency’s director said the virus poses “a very grave threat for the rest of the world.”
Over 1,000 people in China have died after contracting the virus, which has sickened over 43,000 others globally. Just under 400 of those cases have been confirmed in countries outside of China.
“With 99 percent of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a video conference with hundreds of researchers on Tuesday.
In an appeal to researchers who had dialed in to the conference from all over the world, Tedros called for more collaboration in order to fast-track rapid diagnostic testing and vaccines.
. . .
continued
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Even though the numbers are getting scarier now because they are bigger, right now there is nothing happening that wasnt predictable, (and predicted, I might add) 3-4 weeks ago.
As the numbers get bigger/scarier now more and more americans who poo-pooed the issue previously are concerned.
Key points, we need to keep an eye on are a rising %age of deaths as cases go into ARDS and at some point all available ventilators are occupied.
This situation is what would (will?) make the death numbers skyrocket.
The first country this might happen in is China.
But we have enough infections outside of China now.. in places were China cannot control the data we will gain more clarity.
It is still possible that from a health standpoint this can become a problem IF the infection gets big enough in a given country that the quarter or so ,of infected who go into ARDS exceed the number of available ventilators.
If this doesnt happen death rates will remain low..
My guess is that ventilator production in China is running 3 shifts but at some point u will also run out of qualified operators..
So its still possible we can see much bigger death numbers when a given country reaches that tipping point (or in the case of china the deaths may be simple covered up... which is easy for them to do)
This is what may, cause a panic in the homeland if it does occur.
Still might be primarily an economic issues rather than a health one.. but we know how dangerous that can be.
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Here. Now. Triple digits from Atlanta.
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/us/nearly-200-georgia-residents-monitored-for-coronavirus-china-reports-97-new-deaths-on-wednesday (https://www.foxnews.com/us/nearly-200-georgia-residents-monitored-for-coronavirus-china-reports-97-new-deaths-on-wednesday)
Georgia
Published 7 hours ago
Nearly 200 Georgia residents being monitored for coronavirus; 97 new deaths in China
By David Aaro | Fox News
Georgia health officials announced on Tuesday that roughly 200 residents were self-monitoring for the coronavirus after recently returning from China.
None of the residents have shown symptoms of the virus or visited Hubei province -- the epicenter of the outbreak.
Health officials reportedly didn't use the word quarantine, instead, phrasing it that people are being isolated in their homes for 14 days, which is considered the virus's incubation period, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. A new paper by Chinese scientists says the period could be as long as 24 days.
Officials have reportedly been calling each traveler, letting them know of the potential symptoms of the virus and the importance of staying at home during the timeframe. Residents under quarantine were given an online tool that notifies them when their isolation time is up, according to the AJC.
. . .
continued
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So . . . I work NOC shift at a mental hospital currently. The whole hospital is like a small town where everybody hears everything about one another. Apparently NOC shift is the shift with the best relationships amongst co-workers. Lucky me.
There is one lady that is a Chinese immigrant whose family is in the coastal province closest to Hong Kong island. She had been planning since the holidays to go on a month long vacation to visit family in China in March. I recently brought it up to a co-worker that regularly works near her unit that her plans were probably scrapped. He said he heard that her home village was made up of 4 main families and that 2 of those families were wiped out.
I then brought it up with an LVN I'm close too and she said that the Chinese worker said people were kinda sick but downplayed it and didn't really want to talk about it.
It's all gossip right now. I'll keep probing for info as time goes on.
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Here's an interesting analysis regarding the effect of the China Flu on China: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-has-ground-halt-ground-indicators-confirm-worst-case-scenario (https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-has-ground-halt-ground-indicators-confirm-worst-case-scenario) It looks like we're in for some supply interruptions. I suggest stocking up on medicines now, before it's too late. I imagine there will be some hungry folks here eventually.
As a follow-up, I've been filling in holes in our preparations this week. I noticed at Walmarts, that there definite gaps in items like canned vegetables and fruits. At our local Lowes, they still had plenty of the N-95 masks in the mowing/outdoor section of the store.
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https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/02/the-sneeze-heard-in-wuhan-city-china-felt-economically-around-the-world/ (https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/02/the-sneeze-heard-in-wuhan-city-china-felt-economically-around-the-world/)
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Glad there is a short, intelligent, cogent summary for me to give to my wife and a couple others who think this is all on the other side of the world.
When we have 1000 infections or 100 fatalities on this side of the water they may realize its happening here too. But I am quite confident once they get woke they will respond quickly and capably.
Nemo
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See below.
Nemo
https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30382112 (https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30382112)
Economic fallout from China's coronavirus mounts across the globe
Econ
Feb 14. 2020
File Photo by The Washington Post
By The Washington Post · David J. Lynch
The economic casualties from China's coronavirus epidemic are mounting as Asian and European auto plants run short of parts, free-spending Chinese tourists stay home and American companies brace for unpredictable turbulence.
That's just the start of a financial hangover that is expected to linger for months even if the flulike illness is soon brought under control, economists and supply chain experts say. The Chinese epidemic's aftereffects will likely cause the global economy to shrink this quarter for the first time since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, according to Capital Economics in London.
Chinese factories had been scheduled to reopen on Feb. 10 after a Lunar New Year holiday that already had been extended for several days because of the medical scare. But with many workers unable or unwilling to return to employers located in a sprawling quarantine region, the resumption of routine operations in many workplaces has been delayed.
. . .
continued
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It appears the initial fears were accurate.
Nemo
https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-can-be-spread-by-people-who-dont-show-symptoms-cdc-warns/
Coronavirus can be spread by people who don’t show symptoms, CDC warns
By Jackie Salo
February 13, 2020
Coronavirus can be spread through people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of the illness, the director of the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention said Thursday.
Dr. Robert Redfield confirmed reports out of China that the virus can spread when the person is still asymptomatic, according to CNN.
“There’s been good communication with our colleagues to confirm asymptomatic infection, to confirm asymptomatic transmission, to be able to get a better handle on the clinical spectrum of illness in China,” Redfield told the outlet.
Redfield said it’s not known how much the asymptomatic cases are contributing to the spread of the virus — which has sickened more than 60,000 people worldwide — but the discovery is concerning.
“What I’ve learned in the last two weeks is that the spectrum of this illness is much broader than was originally presented. There’s much more asymptomatic illness,” he said.
He added that a number of confirmed cases presented with just a “little sore throat.”
His comments come as the agency confirmed the 15th case of the coronavirus in the US.
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More not so good news.
Nemo
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/)
Health
Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good
By Sharon Begley @sxbegle
February 14, 2020
At least 550,000 cases. Maybe 4.4 million. Or something in between.
Like weather forecasters, researchers who use mathematical equations to project how bad a disease outbreak might become are used to uncertainties and incomplete data, and Covid-19, the disease caused by the new-to-humans coronavirus that began circulating in Wuhan, China, late last year, has those everywhere you look. That can make the mathematical models of outbreaks, with their wide range of forecasts, seem like guesswork gussied up with differential equations; the eightfold difference in projected Covid-19 cases in Wuhan, calculated by a team from the U.S. and Canada, isn’t unusual for the early weeks of an outbreak of a never-before-seen illness.
But infectious-disease models have been approximating reality better and better in recent years, thanks to a better understanding of everything from how germs behave to how much time people spend on buses.
“Year by year there have been improvements in forecasting models and the way they are combined to provide forecasts,” said physicist Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University, a leading infectious-disease modeler.
Related:
Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/)
That’s not to say there’s not room for improvement. The key variables of most models are mostly the same ones epidemiologists have used for decades to predict the course of outbreaks. But with greater computer power now at their disposal, modelers are incorporating more fine-grained data to better reflect the reality of how people live their lives and interact in the modern world — from commuting to work to jetting around the world. These more detailed models can take weeks to spit out their conclusions, but they can better inform public health officials on the likely impact of disease-control measures.
Models are not intended to be scare machines, projecting worst-case possibilities. (Modelers prefer “project” to “predict,” to indicate that the outcomes they describe are predicated on numerous assumptions.) The idea is to calculate numerous what-ifs: What if schools and workplaces closed? What if public transit stopped? What if there were a 90% effective vaccine and half the population received it in a month?
“Our overarching goal is to minimize the spread and burden of infectious disease,” said Sara Del Valle, an applied mathematician and disease modeler at Los Alamos National Laboratory. By calculating the effects of countermeasures such as social isolation, travel bans, vaccination, and using face masks, modelers can “understand what’s going on and inform policymakers,” she said. For instance, although many face masks are too porous to keep viral particles out (or in), their message of possible contagion here! “keeps people away from you” and reduces disease spread, Del Valle said. “I’m a fan of face masks.”
The clearest sign of the progress in modeling comes from flu forecasts in the U.S. Every year, about two dozen labs try to model the flu season, and have been coming ever closer to accurately forecasting its timing, peak, and short-term intensity. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determines which model did the best; for 2018-2019, it was one from Los Alamos.
Los Alamos also nailed the course of the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, including when it would peak. “And it was spot on in the number of people who would be infected,” said Del Valle: just under 400 in that city, of a global total of about 8,000.
. . .
continued
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This Chinese virus is going to change the world. I foresee cascade failures coming in our future. Cascade failures are often seen in fatal aircraft accidents, for instance, someone doesn't close a door properly on an aircraft, the pilot becomes distracted by a minor problem and crashes the aircraft into the ground, even though the aircraft itself was flying fine. Cascade failures an also be likened to the falling domino effect. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
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Assess credibility.
Nemo
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/alleged-c-d-c-text-messages-say-over-1-000-infected-with-coronavirus-in-u-s-a-being-deliberately-concealed
Nation
ALLEGED C.D.C. TEXT MESSAGES SAY "over 1,000" INFECTED WITH CORONAVIRUS IN U.S.A. -- BEING DELIBERATELY CONCEALED
(https://halturnerradioshow.com/images/2020/02/14/CDC-TextMsg-1-RedBoxed-HEADER_large.jpg)
While the U.S. mass-media is reporting there are "15 confirmed cases" of the deadly Chinese Coronavirus in the US, a lead Doctor in the CDC allegedly sent a text message to a family friend admitting "there have already been over 1,000 cases in the U.S." The Text also says they are ". . . trying to prevent panic . . ."
According to an 18 year old in upstate New York near Schenectady, his father had a text messaging exchange with Doctor Nancy Messonnier, the Director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD) within the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), photo below.
. . .
continued
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Assess credibility.
Nemo
There is a Nancy M working for the CDC, which adds some credence to the message. TPTB don't want to panic the sheeple. Once the populace wakes up, there will be a stampede.
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i have a question for the more epidemiological minded than I.
given that;
corvid19 death rate is pushing 2.5% - but the severe case rate is pushing 20%.
if this escapes into Africa - and the medical care isn't up to the task - is the death rate likely going to 20%? I'm wondering, because of what Ebola and MERS did in more undeveloped areas.
:coffeeNews:
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Watch the numbers in Vietnam, that might give an idea of how it'll progress in Africa.
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what are the odds it gets to the Mexican drug lords, any and all drug lords and their gangs, and wipes the out?
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The coronavirus was developed by a professor at Harvard. You can't believe any news about the virus coming out of china. They have the quarantines going on, but they are also welding doors shut to keep the populace from spreading it.
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So as the bug continues to spread, the comment by grizz about drug lords made me remember that China claims they are disinfecting cash to reduce infection. How would they do that? Run it for 20 minutes or longer in a clothes dryer, UV light, chemical liquids or gases?
Most of the US currency has some traces of drugs on it so i assume a bug would also be able to be passed via cash transactions for a period of time before it would die.
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given that;
corvid19 death rate is pushing 2.5% - but the severe case rate is pushing 20%.
:coffeeNews:
Total Deaths
2,361
Total Recovered
21,247
I look at those as the more accurate numbers.
Given that Total Confirmed is 77,917 that ones are not finished dealing with the disease and still have chances of dying from it, the numbers are closer to a 10% fatality rate.
As discussed let it get loose in Mexico or Pakistan or Central Africa. With no medical care I think fatality rate would increase by a factor of 3, 4, 5 easily.
This goes widespread across the world I submit there will be 500 million plus casualties.
Get ready.
Nemo
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Don't eat the food in China!
Read complete story here.
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/24/expert-chinese-scientists-sell-lab-animals-meat-black-market/ (https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/24/expert-chinese-scientists-sell-lab-animals-meat-black-market/)
Population Research Institute President Steven W. Mosher wrote at the New York Post on Saturday that China’s coronavirus epidemic could have been unleashed by researchers who sold laboratory animals to the notorious “wet markets” of Wuhan for extra cash.
Mosher is not the first skeptic of Beijing’s official coronavirus narrative to note the presence of an advanced microbiology lab near Wuhan, the city where the epidemic originated. Since the early days of the crisis, theories have suggested everything from the lab accidentally releasing the virus to speculation that the virus might have been deliberately designed as a biological weapon.
His theory cited as evidence the release of new guidelines from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology calling for “strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”
As Mosher pointed out, the facility near Wuhan is the only Level 4 microbiology lab in China, so the new directive was implicitly directed at the Wuhan facility, which further implies the Ministry of Science and Technology has reason to believe its containment procedures need to be strengthened.
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Supply shortages due to the virus are beginning to appear in pharmacies. My spouse talked with a friend that's a pharmacist, and she said shortages are definitely occurring and they have no idea when or if they'll be restocked. So... what's going to happen to all those folks that are on psychiatric meds? Imagine thousands of violent schizophrenic patients suddenly going cold turkey.
Once the virus gets going full steam, I imagine many of our first responders and their families may be incapacitated. So police and fire departments will be under staffed. Mix in violent crazies, or addicts looking for a way to get high and we'll have a deadly mess indeed.
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You are keeping a view on the Dashboard aren't you?
Dr. Nicole Saphier referred it to as SARS/COVID 2 at 0847 today. First time I have heard that name for it.
She also reported 3 new "unknown origin" cases in the U.S. One was high school student who had been to school carrying the virus. School closed for deep cleaning, but outside school activities continue. Including basketball games this weekend will continue.
But remember, about 18,000 flu deaths this year. As far as the death rate on diseases like this 6.9% flu deaths last week. 7.3% is considered threshold for epidemic.
This could be a flash in the pan or cure for global warming. Either way, 3 Bs plus 2 is still a good idea Be sure to add antiseptic stuff.
Nemo
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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i think COVID19 has gotten into the wild. Even if the WHO is saying there is no pandemic.
looks like a high R0 but the mortality is about the same as this years flu.
:coffeeNews:
Nemo - SARS is that corona virus' name. its number 2.
like the virus HIV, the disease is called AIDS. HIV/AIDS.
some virus' have multiple presentations or disease actions. An example is varicella virus, it can cause chicken pox or shingles. one virus two diseases - so VZV/chicken pox or VZV/HZ for shingles.
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More history and general info.
Nemo
https://threatjournal.com/archive/tj02292020.html
WEEKLY THREAT AND ALERT ROUNDUP
Published Each Saturday Afternoon
This scanning electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2 (round magenta objects) emerging from the surface of cells cultured in the lab. SARS-CoV-2, also known as 2019-nCoV, is the virus that causes COVID-19. - ALLOW IMAGES
CDC Warns Now is the Time to Prepare for COVID-19
Feb 29, 2020
Between Feb 22-28, the following related Flash SMS
messages were sent to AlertsUSA subscriber mobile devices:
2/28 - State Dept. issues Level 3 (Reconsider Travel) advisory for Italy due to sustained community spread of COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.
2/28 - House of Reps members being advised to put plans in place for modified office ops in case of widespread COVID-19 infections in U.S. AlertsUSA monitoring..
2/28 - WHO: Assessment of risk of spread and risk of impact of COVID-19 now "VERY HIGH" at global level. Statement made at ongoing daily press briefing.
2/27 - US Central Command suspends leave & liberty for US service members and DoD civilian employees within the CENTCOM AOR to prevent transmission of COVID-19.
2/27 - US Navy orders all ships in the Pacific having visited WESTPAC nations to remain at sea for at least 14 days to monitor for symptoms of COVID-19. Developing..
2/27 - US Embassy Kenya issues security alert warning terrorist groups may be plotting attack against a major hotel in Nairobi. More info via email.
2/26 - State Dept. issues Level 3 Travel Advisory for S. Korea urging reconsideration of travel due to COVID-19 outbreak. See your email for more info.
2/26 - Pres Trump during ongoing press conference: "Every aspect of our society should be prepared," including schools, for the spread of coronavirus "just in case."
2/25 - 23 YO US soldier at Camp Carroll, S. Korea tests positive for COVID-19. KCDC & USFK health officials actively conducting contact tracing. More info via email.
2/25 - CDC formally says now is the time for businesses, hospitals, communities schools & individuals to begin preparing to respond to coronavirus. More via email.
2/24 - CDC issues Level 3 (Avoid Nonessential Travel) Travel Notice for S. Korea warning of widespread, ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.
2/24 - CDC issues Level 2 (Practice Enhanced Precautions) Travel Notice for Italy due to sustained community transmission of COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.
2/24 - US Forces Korea raises risk level to "high" for USFK peninsula-wide after dependent living in Daegu tests positive for COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.
2/23 - US Embassy Italy issues health alert rec avoiding multiple regions due to COVID-19 outbreak. Austria halts all rail service w/ Italy to limit spread. See email.
2/22 - Italian gov announces use of police & military to enforce strict lockdown / quarantine of ~11 municipalities w confirmed COVID-19 cases. Developing situation.
2/22 - State Dept issues Level 2 (Exercise Increased Caution) Travel Advisories for Japan and S. Korea due to an outbreak of COVID-19. More via email.
2/22 - CDC issues Level 2 (Practice Enhanced Precautions) Travel Notices for Japan and S. Korea due to sustained community transmission of COVID-19. More via email.
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Corona? Disease X? Ebola?
Bleeding from the eyes sounds like the latter.
Nemo
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/disease-x-feared-hit-ethiopia-21601531 (https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/disease-x-feared-hit-ethiopia-21601531)
'Disease X' feared to have hit Ethiopia as dying villagers 'bleed from eyes'
EXCLUSIVE: While the rest of the world is occupied with coronavirus, a gruesome mystery sickness is killing Ethiopians of all ages as hospital treatment appears ineffective
By Sophie Bateman, 12:14, 29 FEB 2020 Updated17:14, 29 FEB 2020
A mysterious and horrifying deadly illness killing villagers in Ethiopia could be the dreaded "Disease X".
A concept coined by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to describe a new unknown pathogen with the potential to cause an epidemic, scientists are constantly on the lookout for illnesses that fit the description.
Some believe coronavirus is Disease X, but the real answer could lie in East Africa.
"Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever" leaves people bleeding from their eyes, mouth, and anus.
The gruesome sickness, informally dubbed "bleeding eye fever", has a higher mortality rate than the plague and has mystified medical professionals for the past couple of years.
Cases were reported in South Sudan and Uganda in 2018, with dozens infected and at least four killed.
Now neighbouring country Ethiopia is grappling with similar horrific symptoms.
One 23-year-old victim first experienced his eyes and palms turning yellow, before he began bleeding from his nose and mouth and his body swelled up, the Guardian reports . He later died after collapsing with fever.
Many of his neighbours suffered the same symptoms and some died.
Other victims included a two-year-old boy in the town of Haarcad who died despite receiving multiple blood transfusions during a month-long hospital stay. He, too, had yellow eyes and palms, swelling and a fever.
. . .
continued
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Hi all,
Still alive and kicking here in the UK.
We do now have a community spread infected man here now. So things will most likely begin to heat up in the near future.
There is no panic here as of yet. Like most governments in the western world. The UK government is slow stepping their response as would be expected.
Unfortunately China appears to be one of the few countries that has the ability to enact rightfully draconian measures for containment. While many bad mouth China. I have to admire their robust response to the outbreak.
I had to remind my other half not to go down rabbit holes of theory or conspiracy on this virus. I told her that the mental effort is best used refining our families preparations for eventualities.
I will pop in as things develop to update when I can.
-
Here comes the big spread.
Nemo
https://apnews.com/439fe91fdadce80450d87a70940462ae
Africa readies for new virus as cases confirmed on continent
By RODNEY MUHUMUZA and CARLEY PETESCHtoday
DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Across Africa, steps are being taken to prepare for — and to reduce the effects of — the spread of the new coronavirus. Testing laboratories are being supplied, quarantine and hospital treatment facilities are being readied for patients, and public health advisories have been issued.
As of Monday, the continent of 1.2 billion people has eight confirmed cases of COVID-19 — three in Algeria, two in Egypt, one in Tunisia, one in Nigeria and one in Senegal. The case in Senegal was a French citizen who resides in Senegal and who had recently returned from France.
But 13 of Africa’s 54 countries have been identified by the World Health Organization as at risk of becoming centers for the disease on the basis of volume of traffic between China and weak health surveillance and treatment systems.
Nigeria on Friday became the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to report a confirmed case when an Italian citizen traveling from Milan on a business trip fell ill after arriving at Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city with 20 million people.
. . .
continued
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Hi all
The picture here in the UK is pretty confusing really.
The national health system is already stretched due to the normal winter spike in health problems and years of budget cuts. Yet the government is saying that they are prepared to handle things.
I am REALLY hoping I am wrong in this. Yet it appears that the government here has made a worrying decision on its stance.
It appears that the government is more worried about the economic impact of taking active measures to reduce the spread now than public health concerns.
The talking heads keep hammering away at comparing this virus to the seasonal flu, as an example of why this virus is not that bad.
I fear that the government is thinking that it would be better to let this virus run its course through the population than interrupt the economy by taking containment measures.
Really glad the family is prepared to ride out whatever storm that may come.
-
Hi all,
The UK government has after much fanfare released their plan for managing the Corona virus.
Instead of posting a review of the document.
Please find the publically available document attached to this post.
Now I do understand that it might seem daunting to spend a large amount of time reading this. One would expect a plan of this importance to be pretty large.
However the UK Government has been able to explain the plan in only 28 pages.
Thanks all.....http://cloud.tapatalk.com/s/5e5e9b195bbda/Coronavirus_action_plan_-_a_guide_to_what_you_can_expect_across_the_UK.pdf (http://cloud.tapatalk.com/s/5e5e9b195bbda/Coronavirus_action_plan_-_a_guide_to_what_you_can_expect_across_the_UK.pdf)
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But wait till it gets going in Africa, Central, South, America, India, Southeast Asia. Even if it only doubles that going to be a big number.
Nemo
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html)
Health and Science
WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought
Published Tue, Mar 3 20204:28 PM EST, Updated 19 min ago
Key Points
World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.
World health officials said Tuesday the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva. In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said.
The World Health Organization had said last week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated. Early in the outbreak, scientists had concluded the death rate was around 2.3%.
. . .
continued
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Hi all,
Frustrated over here in the UK big time.
Given what is happening in other countries Italy for example.
The UK Government is still taking no proactive response measures. They appear to be acting as if this is just another seasonal flu at this point.
I am pretty well flabbergasted by the stance. They keep touting that 80% will only have minor symptoms and only the elderly and compromised are at risk.
That does nothing to reassure me with two members of my four person family that fall in the at risk categories.
I do not care how this got started. I do not care if there are sinister plots afoot. I do however care that many governments to include the UK have decided to ignore the aged advice that to stop a pandemic you pull out all of the stops. Proactive containment saves lives.
I may get flamed a bit for my take on this. Yet I do find it unbelievably ironic that china is one of the countries that took huge steps for containment.
Yes I get the whole "you can't trust China" thing. Yes we probably do not have the whole truth on what happened there. But at least they present the picture that they indeed followed the steps people have recommended for pandemic response for decades now.
So what is the deal? Since BAD China responded this way, the west should take an opposite approach?
Just venting at the moment.
We are prepped and being as sensible as possible here. We are also aware that the consequences of the response here may lead to a cascade failure. So we are planning for a long hard time.
Better that as opposed to assuming as the majority of the influenced do that this is nothing to be concerned about. It is just a slightly worse seasonal cold. Keep calm and carry on.
Peace
All
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I hear you Gadget.
two models - China; fill the streets with LEO/MIL and enforce the quarantine and 'self isolation' rules with methods that would shock most people in the UK/EU/US. Now their numbers are going down.
Second, South Korea - the government and the South Korean citizens cooperated to meet the threat. Drive through testing, neighbors bringing each other food. Voluntary self isolation. People setting up white boards to leave messages, like who needed what or in one case two sick parents needing help with their children. Now their new case numbers are leveling off - hopefully.
Lets see how it goes with Italy - They waited, too long in my opinion. Now there is a price to pay. Their plan was reactive. At least the UK has a plan, even if reactive and not proactive. In the USofA our president actually said, on camera, that people should go to work sick. There will be a price to pay.
Stay Safe.
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He never said that!
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work. This is just more Fake News and disinformation put out by the Democrats, in particular MSDNC. Comcast covers the CoronaVirus situation horribly, only looking to do harm to the incredible & successful effort being made!
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/05/president-trump-i-never-said-people-that-are-feeling-sick-should-go-to-work/
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Was forwarded this. Cannot verify its accuracy. Not sure if comical or insulting. Primarily covers Europe with touch of Australia.
Nemo
The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”
The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.
The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.
The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let's Get the Bastard.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.
The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.
Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”
The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbor” and “Lose.”
Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.
The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.
Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crickey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.
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It is so darn strange watching the way people are reacting.
To be honest there is a no win situation happening here.
Take aggressive measures to gain control and if you succeed you will be branded as overreacting.
Though to allow unrestricted transmission in order to keep the economy going and lessen social impact. Is one heck of a gamble as a plan. I think they are gambling on this dying down with warmer weather.
From the way the government here keeps hammering away at how many people die from the seasonal flu each year. I have the feeling that this ethereal number is being considered an acceptable lose for the Covid-19.
If the gamble works I will happily to proclaim myself wrong all day long.
If the gamble does not work. A certain percentage of the population have been written off as collateral damage.
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But warmer weather doesn't really effect the virus. Look at Saudia Arabia and Thailand, both countries have relatively warm temperatures, and the virus keeps spreading. The Chinese should be held accountable for starting this mess.
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Still traveling internationally every month..
I cant hunker down, this is the highest salary I have ever had.
Every single month I save as much ,as previously i would have been lucky, to save up in a year.
Hope to be able to extend this gig thru the entire outbreak (which is currently uncertain)
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Still traveling internationally every month..
I cant hunker down, this is the highest salary I have ever had.
Every single month I save as much ,as previously i would have been lucky, to save up in a year.
Hope to be able to extend this gig thru the entire outbreak (which is currently uncertain)
Good luck to you, make a ton and stay healthy :bravo:
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He never said that!
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work. This is just more Fake News and disinformation put out by the Democrats, in particular MSDNC. Comcast covers the CoronaVirus situation horribly, only looking to do harm to the incredible & successful effort being made!
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/05/president-trump-i-never-said-people-that-are-feeling-sick-should-go-to-work/
JoJo, i listened to the Hannity show again - You're right. He was making light of the situation - but didn't suggest anyone go to work sick.
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You aren't playing with strange virii and chemicals are you?
Nemo
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Did Trump seem to have trouble breathing tonight during the speech? That was the speech he should have given two weeks ago. It may be too late now.
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Quite a step to cut off the world. Had to wait until the Wuhan virus was called a pandemic is my guess.
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Had to wait for that declaration by the WHO. If he did it prior it would be racist (as is calling it the Chinese Corona) and isolationist, abandoning the world and all kinds of other bad things.
He might even have turned into a dog faced pony soldier.
Nemo
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Did Trump seem to have trouble breathing tonight during the speech? That was the speech he should have given two weeks ago. It may be too late now.
Nope. I watched it and he read the speech. When he does that, he doesn't sound normal. You must have picked up the breathing thing from one of the mainstream media news shows. They couldn't find fault with the speech so that's what they reported. I hate it when ANY President reads their speech because somebody else wrote it and its never natural sounding. I did notice when he slipped the Stock Market comment in there. What a load of bullshit. The Stock Market dropped another 2700 points today. I'm not buying the hype that the virus is causing the stocks to drop. The Federal Reserve is totally at fault.
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I'm still shocked at everyone who is panicking over this thing, its not that bad!!!
The reaction (over reaction!) to it is VERY bad and doing more harm than good
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Some people are starting to wake up and are now pissing themselves in a panic.
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This virus thing is perfect for reminding us Preppers how the stupid ass public will react in an emergency. While I certainly don't want to get the virus, I'm totally aware that its being hyped as the cause of the economic collapse that has just begun. Its great when you can blame a sickness for all your troubles and not put the blame on the actual people who caused it.
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The panic is a sign that people are taking this seriously. I guess it could be worse.
@PkVeazey they always blame the pin, not the bubble.
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Moved my response to http://unchainedpreppers.com/forum/general-off-topic/panic-in-the-year-2020 (http://unchainedpreppers.com/forum/general-off-topic/panic-in-the-year-2020) as it is more relevant there
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And we started it. Not China.
Nemo
https://amac.us/chinese-official-blames-us-for-introducing-coronavirus-to-wuhan-says-us-owes-us-an-explanation
Coronavirus / Opinion / Politics
Chinese Official Blames US For Introducing Coronavirus To Wuhan, Says US ‘Owes Us An Explanation’
Posted Friday, March 13, 2020 | By Outside Contributor
coronavirusA Chinese official suggested Thursday that the United States officials introduced the coronavirus into China’s Wuhan region as the virus makes its way to the West from the communist nation.
“The director of the US Centers for Disease Control was arrested,” Lijian Zhao, deputy director of China’s Foreign Ministry Information Department, said in a tweet suggesting Centers For Disease Control Robert Redfield was apprehended by authorities. Redfield was not arrested.
Zhao went on to accuse the U.S. of starting the pandemic.
1/2 美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德(Robert Redfield)周三在众议院监督委员会承认，一些似乎死于流感的美国人在死后的诊断中被检测出新型#冠状病毒呈阳性。#COVID19 pic.twitter.com/vYNZRFPWo3
— Lijian Zhao 赵立坚 (@zlj517) March 12, 2020
He added: “When did Patient Zero appear in the United States? How many people are infected? What is the name of the hospital? It may be that the US military brought the epidemic to Wuhan. America needs to be transparent! The United States owes us an explanation!”
The first case of COVID-19 is believed to have appeared December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The virus has spread since February to 36 other countries and territories and has a global death toll of 3,041, according to the CDC‘s numbers.
Deaths from the virus in China hit 811 on Feb. 9, surpassing the number of patients who died from SARS, China’s National Health Commission noted at the time. China has reported roughly 80,000 cases since February, though the number of cases in the country appears to be declining.
Meanwhile, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is growing, with more than 1,000 in 39 states as the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic Wednesday. A global pandemic is defined as a virus that spreads across the world, and declaring an illness as such can have both political and economic consequences.
China found its own way to deal with the initial outbreak. Zhao’s government’s censors reportedly worked to suppress information about the virus as health professionals in the country spread their concern on a Chinese app called WeChat. They even punished officials who discretely warned superiors before it became a pandemic.
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The panic is a sign that people are taking this seriously. I guess it could be worse.
@PkVeazey they always blame the pin, not the bubble.
The virus/panic is being used to introduce more govt control.
The virus/panic is being used to control the debates, control the speeches and eventually control the election.
Some elections have already been pushed back and I'm sure others will be too.
joe will get spanked up one side and down the other if he debates Bernie one on one and the dems/establishment/deepstate cant allow that to happen.
And so far we've only had about 50 people in the US die from this virus, yes its a bad thing but not worth this much panic
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The R0 of this is over 2 - its a novel virus so no heard immunity. if the social distancing doesn't work this equates to about 75-80 percent of the population catching the virus. The death rate is about 1% the serious case rate is around 10%. this mirrors, roughly, China and Italy.
so, in the USofA , in a worst case scenario you would expect 240+ million will catch the virus. 24M will get sick enough to be bed ridden for a few days and may need medical assistance of varying degrees. Lastly 2.5M will die from the disease.
if the death rate proves out - then its the disease not propaganda or a power grab and the .gov underplayed the threat.
if the death rate is more in the 10,000 range - i'll agree its a power grab, especially if the govt doesn't release the controls in place. you know, like the feds canceling the election cycle because of the virus :stir:
we should only have a few months wait to see how it plays out. it looks like we've hit the inflection point on the curve - a mnemonic from my earlier years "Case, case, cluster, cluster, cluster, cluster, Boom."
here is a benchmark to compare with:
2019-2020 flu in the USofA - 13M cases, 120K hospitalizations and 6.6K dead.
source https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season (https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season)
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The R0 of this is over 2 - its a novel virus so no heard immunity. if the social distancing doesn't work this equates to about 75-80 percent of the population catching the virus. The death rate is about 1% the serious case rate is around 10%. this mirrors, roughly, China and Italy.
so, in the USofA , in a worst case scenario you would expect 240+ million will catch the virus. 24M will get sick enough to be bed ridden for a few days and may need medical assistance of varying degrees. Lastly 2.5M will die from the disease.
if the death rate proves out - then its the disease not propaganda or a power grab and the .gov underplayed the threat.
if the death rate is more in the 10,000 range - i'll agree its a power grab, especially if the govt doesn't release the controls in place. you know, like the feds canceling the election cycle because of the virus :stir:
we should only have a few months wait to see how it plays out. it looks like we've hit the inflection point on the curve - a mnemonic from my earlier years "Case, case, cluster, cluster, cluster, cluster, Boom."
here is a benchmark to compare with:
2019-2020 flu in the USofA - 13M cases, 120K hospitalizations and 6.6K dead.
source https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season (https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season)
I read another article that stated 12k deaths from the flu since oct 2019. Either way the common flu is much more deadly than this virus and the panic is media/deepstate driven
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I understand people have different beliefs and theories on this Pandemic.
I must point out a clarification of the death rate on this to this point. Based upon the reported data. That is the confirmed cases tested. The death rate on the global numbers is hovering around 3.4%. Is it possible it is lower due to their being cases that have not been tested? Yes but that is an non measured item. So cannot be fully relied upon.
We know the outcome of a person hospitalized is dependent upon the quality of care provided. So if the quantity of people that require pulmonary intervention support out numbers the capacity within the medical system. The death rate soars. This is what they believe is happening in Italy due to the higher ratio of elderly in the populace.
I am and will not try and convince anyone to see things as I do. Each adult is responsible for their own lives.
Now with that said I will give an update on the UK.
The UK Government has made clear that their deaired end state is for the population to gain herd immunity. To gain that they need at least 60% of the 66 million population to have had the virus. This is direct from the head science advisor.
They are going to stop testing people unless they are hospitalized. They say people that feel they have the symptoms should self quarantine for 7 days. Only call for help if they start to have trouble breathing.
Schools are to stay open and they may pass a law next week allowing the police to force schools to stay open.
They are taking very little precautions in light of this as you can see.
This translates to the appearance that they are allowing for uncontrolled open transmission of the virus amongst the population. Writing off those that perish from this as an acceptable loss in attaining the desired results.
This is in direct opposition to the advice that the WHO recommends for any epidemic.
My prediction is that unless action is taken. We in the UK will experience something that makes what is happening in Italy look like a tea party.
Others can form their own opinions on this.
I however have already activated our contingency plans for long term shtf situations. Getting the garden ready for planting. Setting up for loss of domestic services. Reviewing security precautions and such.
I hope everyone else here has a safe time during this.
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Grizz, I hope you are right.
found on twitter - CoViD-19 is being called 'the Boomer Remover' by Millennials.
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Grizz, I hope you are right.
found on twitter - CoViD-19 is being called 'the Boomer Remover' by Millennials.
Those idiots are too stupid to realize that they are running towards the boomers whenever they need a safe place, cookies, roof over their heads, food, a job (not so much for the jobs) or anything related to everyday life because they're too lazy to be self-reliant in any form.....
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Some new info estimates. We need to remember to keep an eye on this. Not let the "new" news of the day shove things away.
Nemo
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/13/the-worst-case-estimate-for-u-s-coronavirus-deaths/
The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
March 13, 2020, in News, U.S., 10 min read
Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?
One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.
The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
. . .
continued (and worth the click and read)
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And how many people will succumb to the secondary effects of the virus? When the JIT delivery system isn't working and folks are going hungry, there will be home invasions, people stealing food from stores, farms, and rural locations. How about the reported increased death rates for those that have the misfortune of getting reinfecting by the Chinese virus? From all the medical reports I've read, this bio-engineered Chinese virus has a much higher death rate than the typical flu. We can discuss this again, maybe in July, if we're all here and the internet and power grid are still functioning.
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I read another article that stated 12k deaths from the flu since oct 2019. Either way the common flu is much more deadly than this virus and the panic is media/deepstate driven
Keep in mind this is just getting started in the US. Look at Italy where it got going a month or so back.
Excellent overview of how we got here to where we are going to go. According to this very will qualified gentleman its gonna be a bumpy ride.
At the end he gets into our BIG issue with China. That the real scary part.
A real good 15 minute analysis below.
Nemo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts)
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Get the latest information from the CDC about COVID-19.
CDC
How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan
17,949,580 views
•Mar 10, 2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm
Michael T. Osterholm is an American public-health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious-disease expert.[1] Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota and a Regents Professor, the McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, a Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the University of Minnesota Medical School,[2] all at the University of Minnesota.[3] He is also on the Board of Regents at Luther College in Decorah, Iowa.[4]
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Hi all,
Just a quick note.
While my report on the UK situation presents a grim picture.
Myself and my own are in a very good position to weather this storm. I essence three years ago we bugged out by moving home.
While still in the UK. We are in a unique place.
Feel free to look up the Isle Of Wight.
As a family we have planned for this for years. We have plans upon plans to enact as needed.
So while we are in very good shape. My reports paint a picture of what the average citizen in the UK is or may be facing. Grim as it may be.
We live in an age of stupidity. This have been so good for so long in the western countries. That the ability to make good decisions based upon common sense gas been lost by much of the populace. So be it. Mother nature is just taking the time to kick us in the balls to remind us that lire is not all fairy dust and utopian bliss.
Peace all
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Hey Gaget.
Good to hear all is well.
Stay Frosty Brother. :cheers:
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Looking like fatality rate is running about 9%. As of numbers right now.
Nemo
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Total Deaths
7,948
Total Recovered
81,947
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There are indications that the use of anti-inflammatories such as Ibuprofen can cause complications. This might explain some of the numbers around people that did not have underlying conditions.
Here is a link.
https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms/amp
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Hi all,
I needed to post this link to a report that came out here in the news.
This is a report on a hospital in northern Italy. It has been on the front line of their outbreak and the picture has been grim for them.
The channel that produced this piece is one that has a good enough reputation that it is unlikely that the story is untrue.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rfkbv_WQtn0&feature=youtu.be
Thanks all
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Yep.
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Well,
Myself and the wife went out to our local pub for dinner.
I had Mussels and she had lamb stew.
Prophetically this was the last night all pubs in the UK are open.
This is and end to an era.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200320/52e103c69ccd3045f98ab1263122bf51.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200320/8e1942dff583deaf9b847014775c7cf9.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200320/5218676115b54575c4d6e3af61519dea.jpg)
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looks good brother! :cheers:
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Our bars and restaurants are closed too, unless they can offer take out. Fast food is open.
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A friend is leaving the state in a few days and I'm taking her to a local lake for a going away picnic. Yeah its going to be in the 30's and snow on the ground but I refuse to participate in this manmade panic BS
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Maybe just the fatalities are catching up with the spread rate or something else is happening. Fatal rate has been running about 7%-9%. Basically overnight it has gone up to 12%.
Nemo
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
1439 EDT.
Total Deaths
12,755
Total Recovered
91,540
Total infections completed (died or recovered)--104,295 divded into the total fatalities, 12,755 by my math comes out to 12.2% fatality rate.
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This morning there are 35,345 confirmed cases 473 deaths = 1.3% in the USofA.
This death rate percentage has not changed within the past six days.
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This morning there are 35,345 confirmed cases 473 deaths = 1.3% in the USofA.
This death rate percentage has not changed within the past six days.
Its still not that big of a deal.
When you consider that number is not entirely accurate because it does not take into account all the people infected but dont know it and still recover, the percentage drops dramatically but can't be calculated because its unknown
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Just an observation, you have the sick / infected, then the recovered, then the dead. Shouldn't the death rate be listed as a percentage of dead versus the recovered? The sick will be just sick until they are counted in either of the other 2 categories.
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Thats how I do the math. Sick people can go to the dead or recovered category. Until they get in one of those, they are not a factor in the death rate, per my thinkings and learnings.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Numbers now.
Total Confirmed
372,563
Total Deaths
16,381
Total Recovered
100,885
That gives me a total of 117,266 as total finished with disease, because they are either dead from it or recovered from it. Its no longer a factor in their health.
The number of deaths divided by total finished with disease give me 13.9% death rate.
If my math and methodology is bad please correct me and explain.
Nemo
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From the link above, right now it shows the US as:
Total Confirmed
41,708
Total Deaths
573
Total Recovered
0
No Data
There is not enough info to make any reasonable assessment.
Nemo
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fun with numbers -
assume the current numbers of dead in the USofA is 1.5x the reported rate due to undiagnosed cases with involved SARS-2 infection. Because of very restricted testing, this is our starting point.
reason - we know if someone with cardiovascular disease and COPD dies - they aren't tested. CoD is complications due to COPD, namely bilateral pneumonia - even if CoViD-19 was a co-morbidity. Similar story for T1 Diabetics, Chemo/Radiation patients, long term smokers and a few others. Anyone prone to cytokine or immune system abnormalities.
lets multiply that by 100 (assumes average CFR is %1)
so total dead 573 X 1.5 = 859.5 multiplied by 100 is 85,000 cases minimum.
Case rate should double every 5 days for 2+ weeks. if social distancing works we'll have over 700K cases - current, incubating and recovered. if CFR stays stable this is 7K+ dead by mid April and this assumes social distancing actually works.
since i'm an amateur at this but friends with numbers, any other amateur/or otherwise epidemiologists please check my math.
R0 2.5, CFR 1%, droplet and air xmit, fomite duration several hours - current infected population 80K.
if social distancing 'flattens the curve' it won't be until Early May before we see the numbers start to really drop. This assumes Italy got hit much earlier than initially expected and triage is causing their elevated CFR.
Our Friends in Europe are on the same timeline and India, Australia and sub Saharan Africa are a week or two behind us. After we get over this hump - case rates will oscillate like a bell tone for nearly a year. If we get lucky, and a vaccine is deployed it will end in a couple of months.
>:D i hope i'm wrong - but we don't have long to wait to see if the numbers pan out. best case in the USofA is 6k-7K dead. this assumes no triage or critical supply shortages. If we follow Italy just multiply this by 4.
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We will never know the actual number of infected or were infected and now recovered because many just live with the flu and get better without going to the doctor.
All we have to calculate with is total known infected and total deaths
Deaths/known infected=%
This usually comes in around <1-2% range depending on the numbers used that hour and would be much lower if we actually had the total number infected vs the number of reported infections
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I am trying to figure that out. But how do you get the known infected figure in there. They are not done with the disease and will turn into the dead or recovered. I calculate known completed the disease by recovery or death against dead for percentage.
I agree there are substantial unknown numbers out there and best available info is confirmed infected. If we can figure out those infected but never treated, diagnosed or tested the rate will go down fast.
Grizz, I don't understand your factor basis of total infected methodology. Please educate me.
Nemo
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yep Grizz, that's why i used number of deaths and worked backwards. Number of deaths is easier to pin down and harder to fudge.
this is looking like a 1%+ but under 2% CFR - my best foggy x-tal ball look for the next 15 days.
the final numbers will be a best guess, the error brackets will be smaller - as you mentioned Grizz, we'll never know how many are asymptomatic.
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I am trying to figure that out. But how do you get the known infected figure in there. They are not done with the disease and will turn into the dead or recovered. I calculate known completed the disease by recovery or death against dead for percentage.
I agree there are substantial unknown numbers out there and best available info is confirmed infected. If we can figure out those infected but never treated, diagnosed or tested the rate will go down fast.
Grizz, I don't understand your factor basis of total infected methodology. Please educate me.
Nemo
We will never know the total infected because some show very few if any symptoms or just tough it out without getting tested.
The only numbers we can confirm are those who test positive and those who die.
(pulling number out of the air)
1000 people in a room
500 are healthy (not tested but may be infected and never know it)
300 show no symptoms but feel slightly sick (not tested but may be infected)
200 show symptoms and get tested
Out of the 200, 100 test positive and two die
In my example above, potentially all 1000 people are infected but we only know about 100 who test positive and the two who died.
2% death rate is reported in the news and people start hoarding TP ::)
In reality its a .2% death rate and no big deal
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More info.
Nemo
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/13/case-fatality-rate-coronavirus-severity/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/13/case-fatality-rate-coronavirus-severity/)
Watch: Why reports about coronavirus death rates can be misleading
By Hyacinth Empinado @sayhitohyacinth
February 13, 2020
CLICK LINK ABOVE TO WATCH THE 1:18 VIDEO
When a new disease starts to spread, the most pressing questions are: How deadly is this? And how many people are likely to die?
One way to measure the severity of disease is by calculating the case fatality rate, or CFR.
Watch the video above to find out more about how CFR is determined and how this relates to Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
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I'm ending my curve matching exercise now.
- my setpoint was 7K dead in the USofA by mid April. We're 10 days away from mid April my other setpoint.
Either my initial guess about total # of infections was wrong or the CFR was wrong. - I agree with Grizz, i'm thinking the initial number of infections was off by an order(s) of magnitude. We're just under the Italy & Spain curve - close enough to call it the same. I now have 5 points of measurement - enough to get a ROM on the area under the curve. the only other variable now is deus-ex-machina, say, novel treatment or vaccine.
But it eloquently shows the estimates - given by the US government - of total deaths in the US is way optimistic. We're going to cross the triage line at a dead run on the up-curve. There have already been heroic efforts by medical workers - but this is a marathon and we're only into the first sprint. 250k dead is the low end now. High end may/will break 1M @ about a %70 probability. something to remember - we'll double the number already affected on the down curve.
the upside is that the virus probably won't kill more than %0.9 of the US population over the next year - 3 sigma - that's probably the worst case. so we have our brackets.
if anyone wants to poke a hole in this -
calculus - algebra - simple statistics is all the math you need.
a basic understanding of geometric/exponential curves.
and worldometer numbers for daily tallies. - it has tracked pretty well with CDC and WHO numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
stay safe everyone.
I need a drink.
fun with numbers -
assume the current numbers of dead in the USofA is 1.5x the reported rate due to undiagnosed cases with involved SARS-2 infection. Because of very restricted testing, this is our starting point.
reason - we know if someone with cardiovascular disease and COPD dies - they aren't tested. CoD is complications due to COPD, namely bilateral pneumonia - even if CoViD-19 was a co-morbidity. Similar story for T1 Diabetics, Chemo/Radiation patients, long term smokers and a few others. Anyone prone to cytokine or immune system abnormalities.
lets multiply that by 100 (assumes average CFR is %1)
so total dead 573 X 1.5 = 859.5 multiplied by 100 is 85,000 cases minimum.
Case rate should double every 5 days for 2+ weeks. if social distancing works we'll have over 700K cases - current, incubating and recovered. if CFR stays stable this is 7K+ dead by mid April and this assumes social distancing actually works.
since i'm an amateur at this but friends with numbers, any other amateur/or otherwise epidemiologists please check my math.
R0 2.5, CFR 1%, droplet and air xmit, fomite duration several hours - current infected population 80K.
if social distancing 'flattens the curve' it won't be until Early May before we see the numbers start to really drop. This assumes Italy got hit much earlier than initially expected and triage is causing their elevated CFR.
Our Friends in Europe are on the same timeline and India, Australia and sub Saharan Africa are a week or two behind us. After we get over this hump - case rates will oscillate like a bell tone for nearly a year. If we get lucky, and a vaccine is deployed it will end in a couple of months.
>:D i hope i'm wrong - but we don't have long to wait to see if the numbers pan out. best case in the USofA is 6k-7K dead. this assumes no triage or critical supply shortages. If we follow Italy just multiply this by 4.
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The past few days Italy and Spain have announced that their numbers are off because further testing reviled that ~85% of the people who died did so because of underling reasons such as high BMI and diabetes and just happened to have the cv19 flu at the same time.
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in rough figures;
about 1,200 people a day die from various causes in Spain (2018). 700 extra people a day are being are currently being added to that toll. sure people with co-morbidity are included in the higher numbers - but the numbers are higher.
look at the diluting effect at work here.
in the USofA 7800 people a day pass away (2018). CoVid-19 only added 3500 to that number. Not a huge deal when spread over the country - say 1/3 higher.
here is another way to look at it - NY NY (the 5 boroughs) has one death about every 9 minutes. Now (yesterday) it was about one every 2 minutes - a local increase of 4 times the norm. The sky isn't falling - but it is a nasty storm blowing.
On the plus side, the numbers in Spain and Italy are still going up but at a slower rate.
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Filters, N95 Masks, Gas Masks and all kinds of good, detailed info. Lots I did not know, and did not know I did not know it.
Yeah, its a bit later than I would like to have found it. But now know lots lots more than I did an hour (and a month) ago.
Nemo
https://www.gunsamerica.com/digest/coronavirus-masks-surgical-n95-explained-prepping-101 (https://www.gunsamerica.com/digest/coronavirus-masks-surgical-n95-explained-prepping-101)
Coronavirus Masks – Surgical – N95 – Explained- Prepping 101
by Paul Helinski on February 2, 2020
If you are a follower of this column, you know that I have always said, ten years to early is better than one day late. In the case of masks for the coronavirus right now, it may be one day late. I seem to have found the last good deal on them, and it emptied out just as I started the livestream, above.
Where most people get confused about masks is in understanding the difference in filtration levels for relative threats.
A virus is roughly 100-300 nanometers accross, which is .1 – .3 micrometers, or microns.
A surgical mask filters at about 5 microns. So that is not even in the ballpark, but hang in there so I can explain the whole thing. As you have seen, half of China right now is wearing surgical masks, and it’s for a reason.
An N95 mask filters at .3 microns, 95% of the time. So that’s in the ballpark at least, but still not any guarantee that the filtration of an N95 mask is smaller than the size of whatever virus you are trying to avoid.
A gas mask is a whole other thing. The media in the filters attract particulate, so it isn’t just filtration. Even a regular Russian GP-5 NBC filter will filter viruses, and even gasses. The Mira filters, which are now called CBRN, I have included in this week’s SHOT Digest, and they even remove carbon monoxide at this point.
Now, with all of that in mind, you have to apply common sense. I know this is the internet where common sense is almost forbidden, so bear with me.
Filtration levels are not relevant when what you need to protect against is someone sneezing on you.
It isn’t like there is a cloud of virus in the air. A globule of phlegm, or even a fine spray of it, is always going to be larger than 5 microns. The CDC has even suggested that a T-shirt mask is effective against the spread of a virus.
The important thing is to try not to be breathing in if someone sneezes on you. You can’t always control this of course, which is why a good fitting N95 mask never hurts, , but even if you breath in, the chances of a globule of spit coming through even a tshirt, never mind a surgical mask, are small.
Viruses need a host to live. Even in a ball of phlegm, they won’t last more than a short while, often minutes, and certainly no more than a couple of hours. So you generally need not worry about viruses just hanging out in the air.
When does particulate size matter the most? When there is a cloud of fine dust. When there has been an aerial dispersal of something like anthrax. When you need to drink water out of a river, and there might be a harmful contagion in the water.
And of course, if you have to travel outside after a nuclear accident or bomb, the beta radiation that will be falling certainly should be filtered. This is the biggest reason why gas masks are not a waste of money, or something strictly for halloween costumes, Comicon, and weed bongs.
Otherwise, just use common sense, and completely ignore the armchair internetards who will tell you over and over again that an N95 mask is worse than wearing nothing if it is not fitted properly. Do you know what fitted properly is? Pinch the nose!
Without a genuine seal, as in a butyl rubber gas mask, or a positive pressure system like a fireman’s mask, no mask is going to completely protect you from a cloud of anything, especially once you start exhaling and it gets wet. That’s why they make gas masks.
As you can tell from the video, I was hoping to find you guys a score of N95 masks. I caught 10 boxes of 10 masks on Ebay for about $2 a mask right before I made the livestream. Someone cleaned them out shortly after, probably for resale. Now they seem to be $20 each at least.
There are however, as I write this, some neoprene masks on Amazon that come with activated carbon filters. Even though they are about what you will pay for an N95 right now, they are probably more durable, and are somewhat washable even. In China they call these PM 2.5 (meaning that they filter pollution down to 2.5 microns) filters, and here they call them N99.9, meaning that they filter 99.9% of “dust,” whatever that means.
Again, we are talking about a virus that is going to be trapped in a glob of phlegm, or spray, all of which can be seen with the naked eye. Even 10 microns, the size of pollen allergens, can’t be seen with the human eye. Just get something to reliably cover your breathing ports, and try not to breath in if someone is sneezing or coughing near you. Common sense! It’s still allowed sometimes in the 21st century, even online.
On editing this article for Thursday, the 5th, nothing I said above has any exceptions for a viral outbreak. There is no way, without a specialized bioweapon, to aeriolize 100 to 200 nanometer virus by themselves. A virus cannot live without some kind of host, that will be larger than 5 microns.
But video coming out of Wuhan seems to say that there may be more to it than your average virus. The picture below is from of a video, one of several, that show some kind of Chinese officials blowing some kind of decontaminate into empty storefronts. If this is DDT, or some kind of other delousing agent or something, we are now talking about bugs, or at least a parasite. It does not make sense, and you should do everything you can to make sure that you can stay in the house for at least a few weeks if this thing hits hard here. Nobody is rushing the stores right now. Just get going.
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Hi all,
I have been watching Coronavirus updates by Dr. John Campbell here in the UK for a while.
He has no skin in the game to mislead or anything. Good info in my opinion.
https://youtu.be/F39kVKSCP40
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Hi all,
I have been watching Coronavirus updates by Dr. John Campbell here in the UK for a while.
He has no skin in the game to mislead or anything. Good info in my opinion.
I'll second that -
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Move south. Maybe Trump was right about the summer heat?
Nemo
https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html
Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer
Jana Winter and Sharon Weinberger,
Yahoo News • April 17, 2020
Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long in high temperatures and high humidity, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.
A briefing on the preliminary results, marked for official use only and obtained by Yahoo News, offers hope that summertime may offer conditions less hospitable for the virus, though experts caution it will by no means eliminate, or even necessarily decrease, new cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The results, however, do add an important piece of knowledge that the White House’s science advisers have been seeking as they scramble to respond to the spreading pandemic.
The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions. “Sunlight destroys the virus quickly,” reads the briefing.
. . .
continued
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But on that heat thing.
Nemo
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Coronavirus-can-survive-prolonged-exposure-to-high-temperatures-study-625118 (https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Coronavirus-can-survive-prolonged-exposure-to-high-temperatures-study-625118)
Coronavirus can survive prolonged exposure to high temperatures - study
The researchers concluded that using chemicals rather than heat to disinfect would be the best way to go.
By TAMAR BEERI APRIL 19, 2020 12:45
The novel COVID-19, despite previous suspicions, is capable of surviving prolonged exposure to high temperatures, according to a study by the University of Aix-Marseille in France, led by Professor Remi Charrel and Boris Pastorino.
In the experiment, scientists found that typically hot temperatures of 60°Celsius (140° Fahrenheit) used to disinfect research labs are ineffective against the coronavirus. Instead, the pathogen may only be killed in a maintained temperature of 92 °C for 15 minutes.
Two swabs were taken from the kidney cells of an African green monkey which was infected with coronavirus. One swab was heated as is while the other was used with animal proteins "to simulate the biological contamination found in real samples," according to the Daily Mail.
When heated to 60 °C for an hour, however, the virus stayed on the latter and even replicated at the prolonged high temperature, indicating that the virus, even after the regular disinfection process in a lab, may still linger.
When disinfected at 92 °C, the virus is seemingly successfully wiped out, but because its RNA gets damaged in the process, the sensitivity of the check is harmed.
. . .
continued
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YING AND YANG
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So much for summer weather causing it to die out until next season. This will just add to the suspicions that it is a designed virus.
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And one more.
Nemo
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6150766898001#sp=show-clips
Dr. Siegel busts myth that COVID-19 can survive in high temperatures
Apr. 20, 2020 - 2:48 -
Dr. Marc Siegel casts doubt on a new coronavirus study saying the illness can survive at high temperatures
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Well,,,,, I guess the old platitude of, "Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you see", is the way to go. There are knuckleheads out there saying there should be sanctions on China for starting this virus. Hmmmmmmm….. Wait a minute. What about the US starting the virus under Obama's watch and the $3.7 million Dr. Fauci gave China's Wuhan Laboratory to continue the research when our government put a moratorium on researching the virus because it didn't serve a good purpose and might be highly dangerous. What's going to happen when that dog comes home to bite us in the ass? I think I'll just continue to be careful and see how all the outright lying and other deceptions play out. Who gives a crap about where the snake came from. I just don't want to get bitten by it.
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Who gives a crap about where the snake came from. I just don't want to get bitten by it.
AMEN brother.
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Who gives a crap about where the snake came from. I just don't want to get bitten by it.
AMEN brother.
Agreed.......
I understand fully why there is so much focus on arguing the cause or causes of our current situation.
We should not let that distract us from focusing on the effects of the situation.
Hope all are and will be well......
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How can all the exerts be right and still not agree with each other?
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How can all the exerts be right and still not agree with each other?
Have you ever heard the story of the blind men and the elephant?
IMHO, the overall picture of our 'time' will be in hindsight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant)
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Well.....
Short update.
Still in lockdown here. Been a bit of a hard few weeks. The virus has been affecting us a bit.
Close friends have the funeral for their uncle this Friday.
A buddy from my old unit in Panama is still in ICU fighting it in Ohio. Still intubated but O2 levels are coming up. Kid is still in his 40s so hoping he pulls through for a good long life.
My 19yr old son has been working in a small care home for the last three years. They have been fighting an outbreak in the home. He had a breakdown last night from the pressure. So we have convinced him that he has done enough. He gave all that he had. The Gov here is not even recording infections or deaths associated with the virus outside of hospitals.
Aside from all of that we are doing ok. All of our preparations have been instituted and this has put us on a good footing to manage whatever gets thrown at us.
Cheers all
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God Bless Gadget99!
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God Bless Gadget99!
Thanks JM.
We will be ok. Just going to be a rocky road for a good while.
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God Bless Gadget99!
Same here.
I know how you feel, I have a daughter-in law a granddaughter and a grandson that are nurses. Two in New Jersey hospitals and one in an up state Delaware hospital.
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God Bless Gadget99!
Same here.
I know how you feel, I have a daughter-in law a granddaughter and a grandson that are nurses. Two in New Jersey hospitals and one in an up state Delaware hospital.
Our thoughts will also be with you and yours.
The heros of the day are those fighting to save lives and keeping essential services going.
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Hi All,
Just a real quick update on what is happening here in the UK.
First off. All of my info and opinions are based upon a UK perspective. I have not been back to the US since moving to the UK in 2004. So I am not qualified to offer opinion on a US perspective.
If I accidentally do or seem to do so. Please forgive me for doing so.
Now with that said. The Prime Minister is back to work today and delivered a speech that to be honest is going to go down in history. I would post a link. Yet it is going to be all over the news and internet.
So I believe that Boris Johnson is the first world leader to have had this virus bad enough to need treatment in ICU. So he has first hand experience.
So for the UK and its needs he is in firm control with clear direction on how the country is going to manage this challenge.
What the country needs.
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thanks for that update
- don't chug clorox is the best advice i've gotten here. :sarcasm:
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Might want to make that May grocery shopping trip a bit early. Hunt up some extra garden seeds too!
Nemo
https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-foods-chairman-claims-plant-coronavirus-closures (https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-foods-chairman-claims-plant-coronavirus-closures)
FOOD
Published 8 hours ago
'Food supply chain is breaking,' Tyson Foods chairman says as processing plants continue to close
By Michael Bartiromo | Fox News
The chairman of Tyson Foods has issued a stark warning to Americans following the shuttering of multiple meat processing plants across the country: “The food supply chain is breaking.”
In an open letter published as a full-page ad in Sunday’s New York Times, Washington Post and Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, John H. Tyson outlined Tyson Foods’ response to the ongoing coronavirus health crisis, but hinted that further closures — not only of Tyson Foods facilities, but competitors’ facilities as well — would put stress on the nation’s food supply.
"Millions of animals – chickens, pigs and cattle – will be depopulated because of the closure of our processing facilities. The food supply chain is breaking," wrote John H. Tyson, Tyson Foods' chairman of the board.
In recent weeks, Tyson Foods has been forced to temporarily pause operations at a number of plants following outbreaks of COVID-19, or because of staffing shortages caused by the pandemic.
“In addition to meat shortages, this is a serious food waste issue,” Tyson claimed. “Farmers across the nation simply will not have anywhere to sell their livestock to be processed, when they could have fed the nation. Millions of animals – chickens, pigs and cattle – will be depopulated because of the closure of our processing facilities. The food supply chain is breaking.”
Tyson said the company had adopted several new practices to prevent the spread of COVID-19 at its processing facilities, including new social distancing requirements, workstation dividers, deep cleanings, and temperature screenings (some performed by infrared “walkthrough” scanners), among other precautionary measures.
Still, Tyson said the supply chain will remain “vulnerable” and confirmed a “limited supply of our products” until its own plants could reopen.
“The government bodies at the national, state and county levels must unite in a comprehensive way to allow our team members to work in safety without fear, panic or worry,” he wrote. “The private and public sectors must come together.”
Tyson Foods formed a coronavirus task force in January in an attempt to protect workers and the facility from an outbreak.
A representative for Tyson Foods told Fox News on Monday that its facilities were currently “running at reduced levels of production,” and were working hard to remain open. “But if it is the right decision to shut down more facilities, we will do so.”
Tyson’s full-page ads come less than a week after the company was forced to suspend operations at its largest pork plant in Waterloo, Iowa. The company also temporarily shuttered plants in Indiana, Washington and another in Iowa. As of last week, four Tyson Foods employees had been reported to have died of coronavirus.
Tyson's announcement is just the latest upset to the meat industry, and potentially the U.S. food supply.
JBS, one of the largest meat processing companies in the world, closed several of its U.S. facilities in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, the latest of which temporarily suspended operations just this Sunday, Bloomberg reported. And Smithfield Foods, the largest pork processor in the nation, closed its Sioux Falls plant after hundreds of its employees tested positive for COVID-19. The president and CEO warned of “severe, perhaps disastrous” consequences from the closures.
The president and CEO of Smithfield Foods said the closure of its Sioux Falls plant (not pictured), along with the temporary shuttering of other meat-processing plants, "is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply." (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,” Kenneth M. Sullivan, of Smithfield, said in a media release earlier this month.
Fox News' Alexandra Deabler contributed to this report.
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Yep. I've been telling the locals around here that food was going to be the next issue before the final collapse. Well, I've already seen some items that are hard to find. The non-prepper community is hot on the trail of perishable food items when they actually should be loading up on non-perishables like Brown Rice and Dried beans. When you get hungry, Brown Rice and Beans tastes mighty good. I'm very happy that we decided to live out here in the country because there are going to be opportunities here that are not going to be available in town. There is a Bee Keeper just two miles west of me. many of the Farmers grow Peanuts, Soya Beans, Wheat, and Corn. Hmmmmmm…… That reminds me of that song, "I will survive".
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I too live in an area surrounded by farms. One farm has wheat 18" tall already and corn fields are being prepared as soy bean fields.
My wife is almost cured from normalcy bias as she has been stocking up on meat and non perishables. She said today "What about food you just add water to"
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I too live in an area surrounded by farms. One farm has wheat 18" tall already and corn fields are being prepared as soy bean fields.
My wife is almost cured from normalcy bias as she has been stocking up on meat and non perishables. She said today "What about food you just add water to"
We bought some freeze dried food after testing Wise and Mountain House. They both tasted OK but the Wise was way more constipating. I got our family Dr, interested in doing a little prepping and I told him to be careful of that freeze dried food he bought. I told him to drink plenty of water afterward or he'd be making round bricks. I also told him to hold off eating that stuff until all the other food was gone.
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On the freeze dried commercial stuff, be sure to check the Sodium levels. Some have a full day limit plus in one meal.
Nemo
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my favorite lookout is most calories in the 'kit' being sugary drinks.
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WOW!!! I got a big surprise today. Our Family Doctor, who is also a friend, has not been to work in April until today. He called me on the phone today to see how the wife and I were doing. We chatted for about 30 minutes. Our County has had 28 positives. Of those, he had 2 cases at his office. One 70 year old man passed away from it. I asked if the fellow had other medical issues. He said that the fellow did have a bunch of other medical issues. He will be starting to see patients again but they will be in a very secure setting. It will not be business as usual. He pointed something out to me that I hadn't even considered. He said that it is his opinion that people who have a large exposure to the virus have more chance to get it. He didn't mean often exposures but large doses of exposure. Medical personnel have both, often and large doses of exposure and that's why he thinks they are in the highest risk category. Hmmmmmm…… I guess that is why his office was only doing telephone work with his patients. I filled him in on all my conspiracy theories about this mess. I mentioned Bill Gate's roll in all this and he jumped right on that one. He said Bill Gates wants to have everybody vaccinated but Bill Gates refuses to be vaccinated for any disease. Hmmmmmm…. Isn't that odd. Hmmmmm….. More like suspicious. I mentioned the collapsing economy and how it was already falling when this convenient virus showed up to take the blame. I told him that when all this virus stuff is gone and forgotten, we'll be in an economic crash that will be massive. By the way, he is a Minnie Prepper. That's what I call people who are aware and are taking a few precautions but aren't full blown food, cash, and ammunition hoarders.
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WOW!!! I got a big surprise today. Our Family Doctor, who is also a friend, has not been to work in April until today. He called me on the phone today to see how the wife and I were doing. We chatted for about 30 minutes. Our County has had 28 positives. Of those, he had 2 cases at his office. One 70 year old man passed away from it. I asked if the fellow had other medical issues. He said that the fellow did have a bunch of other medical issues. He will be starting to see patients again but they will be in a very secure setting. It will not be business as usual. He pointed something out to me that I hadn't even considered. He said that it is his opinion that people who have a large exposure to the virus have more chance to get it. He didn't mean often exposures but large doses of exposure. Medical personnel have both, often and large doses of exposure and that's why he thinks they are in the highest risk category. Hmmmmmm…… I guess that is why his office was only doing telephone work with his patients. I filled him in on all my conspiracy theories about this mess. I mentioned Bill Gate's roll in all this and he jumped right on that one. He said Bill Gates wants to have everybody vaccinated but Bill Gates refuses to be vaccinated for any disease. Hmmmmmm…. Isn't that odd. Hmmmmm….. More like suspicious. I mentioned the collapsing economy and how it was already falling when this convenient virus showed up to take the blame. I told him that when all this virus stuff is gone and forgotten, we'll be in an economic crash that will be massive. By the way, he is a Minnie Prepper. That's what I call people who are aware and are taking a few precautions but aren't full blown food, cash, and ammunition hoarders.
They have been reporting the virus load theory over here in the UK a bit also.
This is being looked into very seriously by many institutions here in europe. The thought is that the load of virus a person is exposed to is related to how serious the outcome. This would go a long way towards explaining the otherwise healthy medical providers that have died from this virus.
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Some observations from Middle Tennessee:
Today we went on our first retail shopping excursion in several months. I ordered some building materials from Lowes (a building material retail chain store) on- line, and had to go into the store to confirm the order. It was Mother's Day with beautiful weather, and the store was packed with shoppers. About 10% of the shoppers were wearing a mask and all of the Lowe's employees were wearing masks. However some of the employees were wearing their mask over their mouths, with their noses fully exposed. The cashiers were enclosed in plexiglass booths. Shoppers seemed to be taking the social distancing thing seriously.
They were out of stock of the main item that I needed(of course!), so we decided to take a ride to the next closest Lowes, about 30 miles away. This second Lowes also had lots of customers, with about 50% wearing masks. The employees there were all wearing their masks correctly. I was in and out of the store within 10 minutes, with no one in line at the cashier, before or after my transaction.
Being Mother's Day, we observed that most of the chain restaurants in the area had full parking lots. We saw a Baptist Church with a full parking lot, they had just resumed services today according to a sign in front of the church. Another church located a couple of doors down from our home has not resumed service yet, presumably because most of their congregation is elderly. Road traffic seemed normal throughout the area.
We saw a couple of kids birthday parties, held outdoors, complete with bouncy houses, etc.
So in this part of Middle Tennessee, life seems normal. We'll know better around Memorial Day, given the incubation period, whether Tennessee is actually overcoming this phase of the Chinese Virus.
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It is good to hear updates on how things are in different localities.
I have a bunch of friends and family living back in the states. Looking into the lock down in comparison between much of the US in relation to the UK I am amazed.
The UK lock down has been almost complete.
I get where some of my old Army buddies are coming from with concerns about civil liberties and such. But heck. The scale of the US lock down is minuscule in comparison.
Here are a few examples of what we have as a populace voluntarily for the most part been complying with.
1. Stay at home unless you are a key worker.
2. No unnecessary travel at all.
3. No gatherings at all.
4. You can leave home to do essential shopping and to exercise one a day.
5. When out you have to socially distance 6ft of separation. This is adhered to in all shops.
6. All social premises closed at the beginning of lock down and remain so. (Pubs, restaurants, hotels and such)
7. All non essential shops closed also. Clothing, appliance, gift and such shops remain closed.
8. If you want to get a taste of the scale. Go to a site like flightradar24 and look at the next to nonexistent air travel in the UK compared to the US.
The list goes on.
Now with these measures. The medical system did not get overwhelmed. Stretched thin? Yes big time. But the peak was manageable. They are slowly starting to introduce relaxing measures this week. This is in concert with some new measures to monitor regions and cities for flare ups. Where flair ups occur they will tighten things down in those localities to keep it getting out of hand.
Before anyone stomps down and declares the UK as a police state now. Remember governments in democratic nations only govern by consent of the governed.
The British populace have a history of protesting violently when push to far. That is still the case.
What I do wish to point out. Is that the populace has really pulled together in this. Communities are closer and the old WWII spirit is back in a small way. Altruism and caring for those around you has become the norm.
Peace all.