Ebola Update - October 2018

[Erick]

Be ready to be in isolation with your house for 30 days and group/neighbors/trustable friends for 120.  There should be mass casualties and relatively limited spread after that.   Provided reasonable precautions taken.  And limited persons in the area it could spread to.

I suspect it would not be difficult to get supplies in your area by after that and we all would spend a lot of time scrubbing our isolation suits after disposing of bodies.

I expect this could easily and quickly become a world wide epidemic.  2nd and 3rd world nations would probably suffer 90% population loss. 

China and Russia may keep it at 40% to 50% by mass elimination of infected towns and small cities along with neighborhood.

Talk about ending global warming.

Nemo   

This is a good post.

[JoJo]

China and Russia may keep it at 40% to 50% by mass elimination of infected towns and small cities along with neighborhood.

 #Nemo do you mean what I think you mean or is it quarantine? Just asking

[Nemo]

I mean MOABs and FOABs.

Russia said they were building a FOAB after we dropped a MOAB in Iraq or Afghanistan a year or 2 ago.

Maybe we have build a GBBOAB since then.

Nemo

[JohnyMac]

Keep your eyes towards Africa then the EU. These two regions are the canary's in the coal mine.

[gadget99]

Keep your eyes towards Africa then the EU. These two regions are the canary's in the coal mine.

Will be keeping a watch here in the UK also.

Bunches of medical people here volunteered to go help the last outbreak.

The government here made some errors in managing those that returned last time.

With luck they will not make the same mistake this time.

Cheers

[JoJo]

 The media isn't paying attention to the Ebola outbreak. Spreading Exponentially Faster

The number of Ebola cases recorded each day in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has doubled, indicating that it may spread to other regions and other countries.

According to Jean-Philippe Marcoux, country directory for Mercy Corps in DRC, “Now it’s doubling – it’s very possible that it can double again. If we don’t significantly increase the resources, it will keep increasing. It will spread progressively to other health areas and it will be there for a long time.”

If this doubling continues, it would represent exponential growth.

The current Ebola outbreak in DRC began in July 2018 and is now the largest in that country’s history and the second largest ever recorded. According to the country’s health ministry, as of January 17, 2019, there have been 668 cases and 410 deaths in the outbreak.

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2019/01/19/world-view-ebola-outbreak-in-d-r-congo-spreading-exponentially-faster/

[Nemo]

More info on that doubling.  With the rest of the stuff over there, if it gets into a city about all of Africa needs to bend over with head between knees and KYA goodbye. 

Trying to flee the area, a couple weeks incubation, Europe needs to close the door too.

Nemo



https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/18/18188199/drc-ebola-outbreak

The Ebola outbreak in Eastern Congo is moving toward a major city. That’s not good.
With at least 680 cases, it’s already the second-largest Ebola outbreak in history.
By Julia Belluz@juliaoftorontojulia.belluz@voxmedia.com Updated Jan 19, 2019, 9:32am EST


At least 680 people have been infected with the Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It’s the second-largest Ebola outbreak in history, with 414 deaths so far, and the first Ebola outbreak in an active war zone, DRC’s eastern North Kivu and Ituri provinces.

But it could get worse: Health officials this week are concerned that Ebola appears to be spreading in the direction of Goma, a major population center in DRC.

Just this week, DRC’s health ministry confirmed four cases of the deadly virus in Kayina, a town in North Kivu, where fighting among rebel and militia groups has repeatedly interrupted the painstaking work of health workers who are responding to the outbreak.

Kayina happens to be halfway between Butembo, currently one of the outbreak’s most worrisome hotspots, and Goma, where a million people live.

So far, the outbreak has not affected DRC’s biggest cities. But Ebola in Kayina “raises the alarm” for Ebola reaching Goma, Peter Salama, the head of the new Health Emergencies Program at the World Health Organization, told Vox on Friday.

Goma is a major transportation hub, with roads and highways that lead to Rwanda. “These are crossroad cities and market towns,” Salama added. People there are constantly on the move doing business, and also because of the insecurity in North Kivu. Ebola in Goma is a nightmare scenario WHO and DRC’s health ministry are scrambling to prevent.

.    .    .

An Ebola vaccine has been no match for DRC’s social and political chaos


.    .    .


Presidential elections have “ratcheted up” the tension in an already tense situation

.    .     .



continued

[patriotman]

The number of people killed in an Ebola outbreak in eastern DR Congo has risen to 443, health authorities have announced, as new President Felix Tshisekedi began his first full day in office on Friday.

The rising death toll -- up by more than 40 in the past ten days -- emphasises the challenge of controlling the epidemic in the strife-torn east and is just one of a host of complex issues facing Tshisekedi.

Tshisekedi was sworn in on Thursday following a long-delayed and bitterly disputed election, replacing Joseph Kabila after 18 turbulent years in charge of sub-Saharan Africa's biggest country.

In his inaugural address, Tshisekedi promised a new era of respect for human rights. He also faces entrenched poverty, corruption and fighting between militias who control parts of the east.

In a bulletin on Thursday, the health ministry outlined the growth of the Ebola outbreak.

"Since the start of the epidemic, the total number of cases is 715, including 666 confirmed and 49 probable. In all, there have been 443 deaths" in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri, the ministry said.

DR Congo, formerly Zaire, has seen 10 outbreaks of the highly contagious haemorrhagic disease since it was first identified in 1976 near the Ebola river in the northwest of the country.

The latest outbreak was declared on August 1 in the region of Beni, a major market town in North Kivu, and quickly spread to neighbouring Ituri province.

The ministry said 248 people have recovered from the Ebola virus, while "236 suspect cases" were under investigation -- down one from the previous bulletin on January 15.

The Beni region and parts of Ituri regularly come under attack from local armed groups and foreign rebels, particularly the feared Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) from neighbouring Uganda.

The presidential election, held on December 30, was cancelled in Beni, officially because of the Ebola outbreak and regional insecurity.

https://www.france24.com/en/20190125-ebola-death-toll-surges-dr-congo

[Nemo]

They may found a common carrier.  Species of bat.  Whether it spread the virus is still a question.

Nemo

https://www.foxnews.com/health/ebola-virus-found-in-bat-in-west-africa-for-the-first-time-scientists-say

Ebola
Published 16 hours ago
Ebola virus found in bat in West Africa for the first time, scientists say
By Madeline Farber | Fox News

The Ebola virus has been found in a bat in Liberia, the country’s government and scientists with Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health announced this week.

The discovery marks the first time the virus has ever been found in a bat in West Africa, though it has previously been found in bats in Central Africa, according to the Tech Times.

The university's Mailman School of Public Health said in a statement Thursday that scientists found  “genetic material from the virus and ebolavirus antibodies” in a greater long-fingered bat located in the Nimna District of Liberia.

Preliminary testing indicates a specific strain of the virus — Zaire ebolavirus — may have been found in the bat. Zaire ebolavirus is “responsible for causing the West African Ebola epidemic which infected nearly 30,000 people between 2013 and 2016,” according to the Mailman School of Public Health's statement.

"Zaire ebolavirus is also responsible for the ongoing outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is now the second deadliest Ebola outbreak in history," the school added.

While no human cases of Ebola were connected to the discovery, and there have been no new human cases of the virus in Liberia since the outbreak ended in 2016, the finding is significant because it could help researchers further understand where human cases of Ebola originate from.

“This discovery is a major step forward in understanding how Ebola outbreaks happen,” Jonathan Epstein, a scientist with the nonprofit EcoHealth who worked on the research, said in a statement.

“It’s critical that we identify which animals naturally carry Ebola and related viruses — without knowing that, we can’t truly understand and reduce the risk of another outbreak occurring in the region,” he explained.

Scientists have previously suspected bats could be an animal host for the virus. Specifically, for the greater long-fingered bat, scientists will need to find more than one bat of this species to determine whether or not this type is a natural reservoir, or host, of the Ebola virus, according to The Washington Post.

While scientists noted more research is needed, the Liberian government chose to announce the news in order to “engage local communities about this finding to help reduce the possible risk of exposure and educate people about the positive impacts of bat species on pest control and the environment,” according to the statement.

[patriotman]

Hmmm that might be a huge find! Kudos to the scientists who figured that out.

[Nemo]

Still going strong.

Nemo


https://apnews.com/8a99202b716c43f6aad6b831ecfe0521

AP Explains: Why Congo’s Ebola outbreak still going strong
By CARA ANNAtoday

FILE - In this Aug. 8, 2018, file photo, a healthcare worker from the World Health Organization gives an Ebola vaccination to a front line aid worker in Mangina, Democratic Republic of Congo. The Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo, the second deadliest in history, marks six months on Friday and is moving toward the major border city of Goma, a development that would greatly complicate any hope of stopping the virus’ spread in the unstable region. (AP Photo/Al-hadji Kudra Maliro, File)

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — The Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo, the second deadliest in history, marks six months on Friday and is moving toward the major border city of Goma, a development that would greatly complicate any hope of stopping the virus’ spread in the unstable region.

This may be the most challenging Ebola outbreak ever. Health workers face the threat of attack from rebel groups and resistance from frightened communities. A highly mobile population produced two scares in the past week alone: The discovery of an infected, wide-ranging young trader led to vaccinations in a new, third province near the South Sudan border. And two contacts of Ebola victims slipped away and were found in the capital of neighboring Uganda — free of the virus.

And yet this outbreak has seen a number of advances, including the widespread use of an experimental Ebola vaccine and a clinical trial of experimental treatments. Health workers say conditions have improved from the devastating West Africa outbreak a few years ago, when some patients were housed by the dozens in sweltering tents and used buckets for toilets.

___

BY THE NUMBERS

Congo’s health ministry reports 759 cases, including 705 confirmed ones and 414 confirmed deaths. Ebola is spread via infected bodily fluids, including those of the dead.

More than 70,000 people have received the experimental Ebola vaccine, whose efficacy has yet to be determined. Some people who have received the vaccine have still fallen ill. As concerns about the vaccine stockpile grow, drugmaker Merck last week said it will ship another 120,000 doses or so to Congo by the end of this month.

Women and children make up a worrying number of cases, including more than 160 children under age 18. More than 280 children have been orphaned, the U.N. children’s agency says.

Cases are still emerging without any link to confirmed ones, a sign of how difficult it is to track the virus in a dense and often wary population in a region with little infrastructure. Millions of people have been checked for Ebola at border posts with Rwanda and Uganda, which the World Health Organization says are at “very high” risk.
A health worker sprays disinfectant on his colleague after working at an Ebola treatment center in Beni, Eastern Congo, on Sept. 9, 2018 (AP Photo/Al-hadji Kudra Maliro, File)

___

GUNFIRE AND RUMORS

“People don’t yet know what the disease is,” Dr. Brian D’Cruz with Doctors Without Borders said this week — a startling comment six months into an outbreak in which health teams have hustled to combat misinformation as soon as cases appear in communities. One survivor, Aline Kahindo Mukandala, recounted for the medical charity how she and others had thought Ebola patients at treatment centers were simply zipped into body bags on arrival.

“No, the foreigners are not here to steal our organs,” another survivor tells communities as he helps the International Committee of the Red Cross speak out in churches, markets and schools.

Ebola response workers have been attacked, both by rebels and community members. Other people fearing Ebola try to flee. Each suspension of virus containment efforts because of a security threat can lead to a jump in new cases.

___

THE NEXT FEAR

The Ebola outbreak is now a day’s drive from Goma, a city of more than 1 million people on the heavily traveled border with Rwanda. The U.N. says coordination of the outbreak response is already being moved to Goma, where nearly 2,000 front-line workers have received vaccinations in preparation.

Some health experts have warned that the infectious disease could defeat efforts to contain it and become a permanent threat in the turbulent region, which would force already struggling health clinics to adapt their operations. Ebola response workers aim to keep a two-meter distance from those infected and ideally wear head-to-toe protective gear. How local workers would assist with childbirths, treat malaria and carry out other daily activities among North Kivu province’s estimated 7 million people remains to be seen.

And were Ebola to become entrenched there, international efforts to stop the disease would need continued resources and funding, while neighboring countries would need to make border health checks permanent to prevent the importation of cases.

[Nemo]

Still going strong.  Note info on vaccine included in article.

Nemo


https://www.foxnews.com/health/ebola-kills-nearly-100-children-in-congo-as-outbreak-rages-on

Ebola
Published 6 hours ago
Ebola kills nearly 100 children in Congo as outbreak rages on
Alexandria Hein
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News

Nearly 100 children have died in an Ebola outbreak ravaging the Democratic Republic of Congo as health workers warn it could be far from over. According to a press release from Save the Children, 65 of the 97 children who have died since August were under age 5. Additionally, more than 180 have been orphaned by the disease.

“We are at a crossroads,” Heather Kerr, Save the Children’s Country Director in DRC, said in a press release. “If we don’t take urgent steps to contain this, the outbreak might last another six months, if not the whole year.”

The outbreak is the second-largest in history, with the charity reporting at least 731 confirmed cases of Ebola within the last six months, and 484 deaths. The country suffered its worst outbreak between 2014 and 2016, which claimed over 11,000 lives and prompted calls for more preventative efforts and the development of an experimental vaccine. However, lack of Ebola knowledge continues to plague relief efforts.

“People don’t yet know what the disease is,” Dr. Brian D’Cruz, of Doctors Without Borders, told the Associated Press.

More than 70,000 people have received an experimental Ebola vaccine, but it remains to be seen how effective it is. According to the Associated Press, some patients who have received doses have contracted the virus, which is spread through contact with an infected person’s bodily fluids. Merck, the drug company behind the vaccine, said it is prepared to ship another 120,000 doses to the Congo by the end of the month.

But scarce availability of the vaccination is not the only roadblock health workers are facing in trying to contain the outbreak. Kerr said aid workers are being threatened by rebels and locals who either don’t believe the virus is real, or who believe it is being spread by the aid workers themselves.

“People have disrupted funerals because they didn’t believe the deceased had succumbed to the virus,” she said in the press release. “Aid workers were threatened because it was believed they spread Ebola. We have to scale up our efforts to reach out to the vocal youth and community leaders to build trust and to help us turn this tide. Treating the people who are sick is essential, but stopping Ebola from spreading further is just as important.”

The Associated Press reports the outbreak, which is mostly afflicting the eastern region, is nearing Goma, a major border city with a population of over 1 million. The United Nations said earlier this month that a coordinated relief effort was already being sent to the region, which included vaccinating nearly 2,000 front-line workers.

[Kbop]

well, with an outbreak this long;
They should be able to get a handle on the viral mutation rate. (i hope very low)
They should be able to see how effective the vaccine is. (i hope very high)

 

[patriotman]

Six months in, the second-worst Ebola outbreak in history trails only the 2014 West African Pandemic Games Ebola world record (Level 15-17, depending on whose numbers you believe.)
You are officially at a Level 10 on the 34-Step Pandemic Panic-Meter©.
FYI, every ten steps or so takes the number of cases up by 10³.
I.e., Level 1 is 1 case (Patient Zero).
Level 10 is 1,000 cases (Now, 6 months into the outbreak).
Level 20 is 1,000,000 cases (At current course and speed, perhaps this coming August, six months from now. And that's with a near-flawless experimental vaccine in use.)
{And yes, the Black Death and smallpox are still the all-time record holders. So far.}
Level 30 is 1,000,000,000.
Level 34 is everyone. (Minus the infectious but survived-the-initial-infection 20%).

FWIW, West Africa topped out somewhere around 90,000 cases and 30K-40K deaths (using the conservative estimate that reported numbers were "only" 1/3 of reality numbers. And Word To Your Mother, with actual mortality numbers, if they had 90K cases - and they did - they had >70K deaths. Even with the 30K number of cases, deaths would have to be around 24K. So you can tell they were lying, because their lips were moving.)

And they admitted two months ago this outbreak would go on at least another six months. Things now are worse than two months ago there, not better. Ponder that before you think this will "burn itself out" ever, let alone anywhere south of 1,000,000 cases.

And yes, the official tally right now is "only" 959, not an actual 1000, but due to the fact that they haven't been able to vaccinate, trace contacts, or even operate health teams in the highest-affected areas for days and weeks at a stretch, the reality is that they probably blew past 1000 cases some weeks ago. I'm going with calling that one now, instead of waiting for next week's WHO report.

And once again, the fatality rate is right on at 80%. Not the happy-gas 60%.
(Go to Wikitardia's page: Take the deaths today. Divide that number by the confirmed  Ebola cases 21 days earlier. Nota bene that result is consistently within a point of 80%, going back to the first weeks of the outbreaks. Math: Still a thing, Wikipedia.)

And in case you weren't aware, Ebola "care" in DRC, and all of Africa, at Ebola Treatment Centers, is always "palliative", i.e. "make their symptoms and inevitable death less uncomfortable", for the 80% who'll expire.The "lucky" 20% who survive will now carry the disease effectively for life (every time they check survivors, they find live virus reservoirs) and can look forward to not only re-infecting friends and family (which may be one hitherto unsuspected source of new outbreaks going back to the 1970s), but eventually going blind, and multiple other lifelong consequences. Good times. Oh, and that's exactly the future for the survivors treated here in the US in 2014-2015. Their lives are functionally over, and they're dead men/women walking.

Bonus point for this outbreak:

     "the World Health Organization indicated that half of confirmed cases were not showing any fever symptom, thus making diagnosis more difficult."


How do they screen out potential Ebola infectees at the airports and border crossings (when they bother to try)?
Fever.

Pleasant dreams.

TL;DR: You don't have enough sand bags, concertina wire, and ammunition for what's coming once it escapes the lab. Again.

Video reference: World War Z.

Forecast: When this becomes as blisteringly obvious to TPTB as it is now, here, any actual and factual reporting on it will be squelched. Just like in 2014.
Watch and see if I'm right. I'd love not to be.

https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2019/02/feb-2019-ebola-update-cheery-thoughts.html

[patriotman]

https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2019/04/ebola-update.html

Peter over at Bayou Renaissance Man is worried Ebola has finally jumped the shark.
RTWT.

My response:

Not quite so much. (Yet.)

1) This is only moving fast for the DRC.
Compared to 2014 in West Africa, this epidemic is moving glacially slow.
Mainly, because unlike 2014, there is an effective experimental vaccine.
But this outbreak hasn't even reached exponential growth, unlike 2014, and it's still barely 1000 cases.
In other words, half the pure exponential growth seen in 2014.

2) The potential is still there.
We're talking about pre-literate anti-science tribal cement-heads.
They burn down the treatment centers, and steal the infected corpses back to do traditional funerals, where they fondle the festering carcasses. After eating rodentiiae from the bush that harbored the virus in the first place, and then undercooking them.
These are not humanity's brightest lightbulbs.

3) Most of them cannot cobble up bus fare to the next village, let alone air fare out of Africa.
Thank a merciful heaven.

That's on the plus side.

On the minus side:

1) The numbers we have are based on WHO and DRC self-reporting.
There is no reporting from multiple regions where they've burned the ETCs and chased out the survey teams. So it may be far worse. (The fudge factor in 2014 West Africa was 300%, minimum. I.e., if they report 100 casualties, there were at least 300.)

2) The "screening" at airports is kabuki theatre. This strain shows no fevers - the only sign checked at the airports - in 50% of confirmed cases.
IOW, this one will escape the jungle eventually, to a metaphysical certainty, five minutes after it gets to a city with an international airport. And you won't know until it's well and truly out. First notice of a case may come 5-40 days after it arrives. Now imagine how many contacts there are by Day 40, unknown and untraced. This is playing Six Degrees of Bacon with the Black Death.

3)Exactly as noted, there is no cure for Ebola, and contraction is a lifelong torture sentence, including repeated positive titer of live virus every time they check, at every known post-infection marker date: 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc. Like Chicken pox, it never goes away, it just becomes dormant. Until it doesn't.

4) A dozen cases won't overwhelm a city's resources: 12 cases in the US will overwhelm North America's resources.
There are only 11 BL-IV beds in all of the U.S., and none in Canada nor Mexico AFAIK.
Case #12 goes to outside hospitals.
(FTR, we had 10 Ebola cases simultaneously under treatment in the US in 2014. That's how close we came to disaster: two more patients.)

How bad is that?
One case - with the best CDC guidelines - overwhelmed all of Dallas' ability to cope, and took down a 973-bed major regional hospital for six months.
One. Case.

5) Absolutely nothing has been done from 2014 to now to better prepare any American hospital for Ebola. Neither in general, nor specifically. If anything, we're worse off.

6) The way to personally cope with Ebola isn't masks and gloves. That's too little, too late.
It's concertina wire and buckshot.
Followed by gasoline and road flares for the slow learners.
You aren't going to "save" nor "treat" a family member who gets it. They're effectively dead.

In Africa, Ebola Treatment Centers provide "palliative care".
Not IVs. Not medicine. Just cool cloths, cleaning up their vomit and diarrhea, and zipping them lovingly into body bags when they die.
Provided mainly by the 10-20% who manage to survive the disease, and have nothing better to do afterwards. Because as noted, they're still riddled with virus afterwards, in breast milk, sweat, semen, other secretions, etc. For God Alone knows how long afterwards.

Trying to treat even one person overwhelmed a major hospital.
You aren't going to do it with less than a staff of 50, and a warehouse full of gear, plus a crater-sized burn pit for waste products.

IOW, once it gets near you, you either self-quarantine inside a clean zone, or you don't.
There will be no going back and forth.
And bringing someone infected inside your clean zone will just make it a death zone, and kill your entire clan.

Welcome to Italy in the 1300s, when Plague arrives.

You either have enough food and water to wait it out inside a safe zone, or you don't.
In which latter case, you'll likely catch it, and then die.
So stock up on the appropriate canned goods.
In #10 food cans.
And OD ammo cans.

[Nemo]

It about ready to stowaway on a plane and get out into the rest of the world.  WHO now has it as a Global Emergency.

Nemo


https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/792951/ebola-outbreak-plane-plague-spread-flights-WHO-global-emergency

World at risk of Ebola 'plane plague' spreading on flights: 'Everyone's at risk'
EBOLA could be spread to anywhere in the world on a plane, after WHO declared the disease a global emergency.
By Jamie Micklethwaite / Published 20th July 2019


Ebola was declared a global emergency after the first fatal case was reported in a city of one million inhabitants.

Citizens of Goma, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are living in fear after the deadly disease arrived on their doorstep.

Government officials have urged world leaders to send aid as they combat the crisis.

Olivia Ajira Kwinja, World Vision’s Humanitarian and Emergency Affairs Manager in the DRC, told Daily Star Online the disease needed to be tackled at a local level to stop it.

But she also gave a terrifying warning about how far the disease could spread.

She told us: "We are looking to stop this disease because we know what it can produce.

"But there is always the chance of someone getting on a plane."

Mortality rates for people contracting Ebola are 50%, making it one of the deadliest diseases in the world.

The current outbreak has spread countries in Africa, but if an infected person were to get on a plane, it could even spread continents.

.     .     .



Continued, interspersed with a bunch of pic so click and read there.

[JoJo]

The U.S. federal government continues to quietly put out a call for Ebola screeners at airports including Dulles International Airport in the Washington area, as migrants from an Ebola-afflicted region in Africa settle in the United States.

The job “EMT, Ebola Airport Screener” has a very straightforward job description: “To screen passengers that have traveled back from Ebola-affected nations. This will include checking vital signs, temperature and having passengers fill out questionnaires. This will include tracking and reporting all recovered results.”

Full story here 



https://www.theepochtimes.com/preparations-quietly-made-to-screen-for-ebola-at-us-airports_3048016.html?utm_source=deployer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newslink&utm_term=members&utm_content=20190821132525