Unchained Preppers
General Category => News & Politics => Topic started by: JohnyMac on July 29, 2013, 01:06:41 PM
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I asked APX to talk to the collapse in Argentina in the late 80's early 90's and he wrote to me stating that he had already done so. Here is his post from September 2011. I encourage you all to take a minute or two and read it then fire questions off to him if you so desire.
http://unchainedpreppers.com/forum/news/argentina-situation/ (http://unchainedpreppers.com/forum/news/argentina-situation/)
My questions are:
> What were the tell tale signs before the collapse Argentina?
> Since you were young, what did your parents do during this time to put food on the table? Protect the family?
> How are things today - Specifically:
- Crime
- Inflation
- Unemployment
- Form of government, e.g. Progressive/Liberal to Conservative/Libertarian
- YOUR (personal) number one struggle today.
Thanks man!
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I'll try to respond all the questions you may have and I'll do it in multiple posts for them not to be too long.
If you would like more detail about something just ask me.
> What were the tell tale signs before the collapse Argentina?
This is a hard one, Argentina suffers a cataclysmic economic collapse every 10 years.
In '89 we had the hyper inflation, in 2001 the default and now in 2013 we are in the brink of a new collapse.
The cyclic nature of economic crashes in Argentina allow you to know that we are going to be screwed sometime in the future, but you can't really know when.
Most of you will think that the cycle simplifies your life, but it really doesn't, because normal life continues, you need to buy a car, buy a house, have a child and whatnot, you can live scared of the collapse and do nothing because is coming, or just try to cope with the situation, hope for the better but be ready for the worst.
My father always was saying take the money out of the bank, they are going to crash, ok granted, they crashed, but my father said the same for 10 years, how could you live 10 years without banks in this modern world?
The same with the value of the dollar, here in Argentina we buy dollars because they are more stable than our currency, my father said the dollar is going to duplicate is price, the Argentinian peso is going to devaluate, granted is happening, but it took years.
What's my point? The point is that thinking that everything is going to crash tomorrow is as useless as thinking everything will be fine tomorrow, each of the approaches has its perks, but I think the best solution is to have a moderate approach.
Economic systems and governments always find a way to compensate, or pull the string a little bit more, so when you think everything got as fucked up as it possibly can be, politicians will find a tweak in the system just to have a few more months, or years.
Only people who can see the shit is about to hit the fan are the ones with connections, politicians, business men, stock traders and whatnot, those guys will save their ass and the moment you realize is time, is already late.
My family had sold a house from my grandfather, when my father told my mother to stop fucking around and get the money out of the bank, it was late, in the bank they told her everyday that they hadn't the money, that she should come back other day, the same happened to all the workers saving some money, that was called "corralito"(playpen).
Also when the country starts to get progressively more fucked up people start accepting outlandish stuff as normal, you get desensitized.
Summarizing, there really isn't a clear sign that will allow you to know when the economy is about to crash, specially for blue collar folks.
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I find all of your points are right on the money (No pun intended) like,
>Most of you will think that the cycle simplifies your life, but it really doesn't, because normal life continues, you need to buy a car, buy a house, have a child and whatnot, you can live scared of the collapse and do nothing because is coming, or just try to cope with the situation, hope for the better but be ready for the worst and,
> What's my point? The point is that thinking that everything is going to crash tomorrow is as useless as thinking everything will be fine tomorrow, each of the approaches has its perks, but I think the best solution is to have a moderate approach.
I am still an advocate of keeping a months expenses on hand as it will take 2-4 weeks for the government to reopen the banks. ATM's will be depleted and I am sure credit cards and debit cards will not work for a time.
Great insight APX...keep 'em coming.
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I'll try to respond all the questions you may have and I'll do it in multiple posts for them not to be too long.
If you would like more detail about something just ask me.
> What were the tell tale signs before the collapse Argentina?
This is a hard one, Argentina suffers a cataclysmic economic collapse every 10 years.
In '89 we had the hyper inflation, in 2001 the default and now in 2013 we are in the brink of a new collapse.
The cyclic nature of economic crashes in Argentina allow you to know that we are going to be screwed sometime in the future, but you can't really know when.
Most of you will think that the cycle simplifies your life, but it really doesn't, because normal life continues, you need to buy a car, buy a house, have a child and whatnot, you can live scared of the collapse and do nothing because is coming, or just try to cope with the situation, hope for the better but be ready for the worst.
My father always was saying take the money out of the bank, they are going to crash, ok granted, they crashed, but my father said the same for 10 years, how could you live 10 years without banks in this modern world?
The same with the value of the dollar, here in Argentina we buy dollars because they are more stable than our currency, my father said the dollar is going to duplicate is price, the Argentinian peso is going to devaluate, granted is happening, but it took years.
What's my point? The point is that thinking that everything is going to crash tomorrow is as useless as thinking everything will be fine tomorrow, each of the approaches has its perks, but I think the best solution is to have a moderate approach.
Economic systems and governments always find a way to compensate, or pull the string a little bit more, so when you think everything got as fucked up as it possibly can be, politicians will find a tweak in the system just to have a few more months, or years.
Only people who can see the shit is about to hit the fan are the ones with connections, politicians, business men, stock traders and whatnot, those guys will save their ass and the moment you realize is time, is already late.
My family had sold a house from my grandfather, when my father told my mother to stop fucking around and get the money out of the bank, it was late, in the bank they told her everyday that they hadn't the money, that she should come back other day, the same happened to all the workers saving some money, that was called "corralito"(playpen).
Also when the country starts to get progressively more fucked up people start accepting outlandish stuff as normal, you get desensitized.
Summarizing, there really isn't a clear sign that will allow you to know when the economy is about to crash, specially for blue collar folks.
This is going to be bit of a dumb question but I have to ask, why does the Argentinian economy keep collapsing every 10 years? That is just weird :o
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This is going to be bit of a dumb question but I have to ask, why does the Argentinian economy keep collapsing every 10 years? That is just weird :o
Is common for economies to have ups and downs, the idea is to prep in the good times to be ready for the bad times.
Well, I think the problem in Argentina is the corruption and that people is stupid.
In good times politicians will rob millions of dollars, for instance the presidential matrimony, the Kirchner family, multiplied their patrimony 46 times in 15 years!!
All the rest of the politicians rob likewise, and they have a mutual support network, their cover their asses so no one can do anything about it, buying judges, attorneys etc etc.
Also politicians will spent all the money in populist bullshit to attract the lower classes votes, they will gift houses, they will create plans for people to buy new TVs for coins, they will gift laptop PCs to school kids, they will create subsides to unemployed people for years, subsides to mothers etc etc
When the bad times arrive, they find that they robbed or gifted all the money, they didn't invest shit and there is no way to find the money to pay all the obligations they got, so...
At that point, the only solution is devaluation or default.
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> Since you were young, what did your parents do during this time to put food on the table? Protect the family?
At that moment I was 21 and was living in a touristic sea shore small city, in the summer months a lot of people goes there on vacation but for the rest of the year is pretty much empty.
My mother was a teacher and my father had the retirement from the police and owned a small shop selling herbs, flour, rice and whatnot by weight.
I was working on construction and distributing food in a truck at that moment while I was on the university.
Crisis didn't hit us hard, those weren't great times but we were fine, my father had chickens and a grew some food in the backyard, he did that even before the crisis, just because he liked it, not because or prepping.
For some people was worst, that resulted in good things and bad things.
Many factories started closing and the workers took control and continued working, after the crisis the business men wanted their factories back but the workers claimed that they abandoned them so now they had nothing to reclaim.
Along the country "bartering clubs" appeared, where people could barter stuff or services, some of those clubs created pseudo money that they could use among the club's members.
The problem with those clubs is that thieves also found a way to sell stuff that usually no one would buy if they stole it, like blankets, lamps chairs whatever, so the thieves started emptying completely all the tourist houses.
You could see all the tourist houses with their doors or windows breached, so owners started selling the houses.
As usual with any crisis, people with money and business men will make more money out of it.
The government printed some bonds to be used as money, they paid state employees with those bonds, each province had their own, in Buenos Aires they were called "Patacones".
People preferred real money instead of those bonds, so your real money could buy more than the same amount of Patacones.
Also, as people didn't have much money they started selling stuff they didn't needed as much, and if you had the money you could buy nice stuff real cheap, for instance cars or tourist houses :)
Although that wasn't a great time, it was not as bad as some depict it, and I fucking need to emphasize this
YOUR LIFE CONTINUES AS USUAL BUT WITH YOU BEING POORER
There wasn't people running with guns in the street, gangs raping children or mutant cannibals, you only could see normal people depressed trying to pass the crisis and hopping for better times.
The looting only happened the first days when there was some localized disturbs that ended up in the president escaping in an helicopter.
In the previous crisis, some before and some after I was born, the same happened, localized disturbs and looting the first days, and then just people trying to find a way to put food in their tables.
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COMMENT:
To APX's point lets look at the other countries today who have had a collapse of late like, Cyprus, Greece, Spain. And countries that will have a collapse probably within the next 12-24 months like, Italy, Portugal, Turkey.
There is no zombies running in the streets. Yes there are protests and a few riots but for the most part just the middle class a lot poorer. The rich get richer while the average person gets poorer. This is the history of the world.
I can't speak for Argentinians, Greeks or Spaniards; however I can speak for Americans. Americans are a little more violent in nature. Let me rephrase that comment - There is an American element that is more violent than the before mentioned countries. There is also a larger element of Patriotic folks who might just take over when a collapse happens. I truly think that is why there is a re-emphasis on gun control.
Our government wants to get as many weapons out of the American citizens hands as possible. In "their" thinking more gun control will result in less carnage of the violent element and to prevent the patriotic citizenry from taking over.
Look around and learn from what is happening in other countries.
QUESTION:
APX, I am fascinated with your "bartering clubs." Obviously everything was bartered BUT what was the most sought after item (s)? What was the most requested service?
Thanks.
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APX, I am fascinated with your "bartering clubs." Obviously everything was bartered BUT what was the most sought after item (s)? What was the most requested service?
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6A9xCc6GjO8/TvABvd6yjGI/AAAAAAAAB7o/adwBrJhYRcA/s320/Argentina+19+dic+2001%252C+indignados+13%252C+Nodos+de+trueque.jpg)
I wasn't directly involved in the bartering clubs, but I think the main bartered items were food, unused clothing and necessary services, like hairdressers.
Although people bartered whatever they had at home that didn't use.
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I remember that a forum member posted an article written by someone from Poland, Hungry or Bosnia (Sorry I forget) about their collapse. Bartering was the only way to survive.
I know I sound crazy, and I have written this before - Put away some basics like screws, nails, glues, saw blades, etc along with your other preps.
Remember, that when the USSR had their collapse, prostitution was the only way many folks could survive.
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Great info APX. And bartering indeed rocks, and now is the time to start, not wait until the situation get dire. I kinda harp on the need for 'community' to start pre-shtf, not afterwards. Sorry if I sound like a broken record.
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APX,
Much appreciate you sharing this info! I've read the previous post and this one and have the following questions for you... They are all asking about the "middle class" of the time.
During hyper inflation period:
1. Did people adjust there budgets for fuel in the cars or use public transport or alternate modes like bikes to go to work, assuming they had a job?
2. We're the remaining jobs mostly .gov or did the workers taking over plants able to keep most jobs open, and I assume that the workers revolt actually included higher up management to make it work?
3. How long before the crisis had citizens been denied rifles, or was this left over from years of dictatorship?
4. We're the road cutters akin to the occupy Wall Street movement looking for anarchy fun and misguided or hard workers out of a job wanting to be heard?
5. Did the road cutters show arms? The .gov didn't mess with them because why? I would think they would want to exert their power to control the other citizens via fear.
6. In the cities I doubt there is enough space per person to grow food to survive on, was there still .gov welfare systems in place to feed the masses? In the video I linked you to, they show countryside families starving.
7. What is your experience with the "unwanted children" of the time or were you too young to remember them?
8. I'll have to think of more questions... :)
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I'm very busy this week with work, but will reply to your questions ASAP.
Please feel free to add more.
Just as clarification, "unwanted children" are the children that live on the street?
And another one, the hyperinflation was in 1989, and "the collapse" was in 2001, your questions are about 1989? I think they are about 2001
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I'm very busy this week with work, but will reply to your questions ASAP.
Please feel free to add more.
Just as clarification, "unwanted children" are the children that live on the street?
And another one, the hyperinflation was in 1989, and "the collapse" was in 2001, your questions are about 1989? I think they are about 2001
Yes, the film seemed to portray them as orphans but didn't explain where they came from IIRC. I guess I consider the collapse from the time Alfonsin took over to 2001, seems like it was all orchestrated to me as only the names changed and the money game remained the same.
How could a nation stand by and let both parties bleed them dry? Oh, wait... that's what America is doing. :)
You can almost draw direct parallels to our countries path, if Obama ain't the spitin image of Mencum I don't know who is. Promises the world then makes a deal after getting elected and the machine keeps rolling along.
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Here are the response to some of your questions DVC, I'll continue with the rest later
1. Did people adjust there budgets for fuel in the cars or use public transport or alternate modes like bikes to go to work, assuming they had a job?
People reduced his expenses the best they could.
In the big cities public transportation was used a lot even considering it sucked, in towns people usually move in small bikes or bicycles because public transportation is extremely expensive and very bad even in non crisis times.
On hyperinflation times people spent all of their salary on food as soon as they could get it on their hands, prices were changed twice a day in the really bad times around '89 when the president Alfonsin had to resign.
2. We're the remaining jobs mostly .gov or did the workers taking over plants able to keep most jobs open, and I assume that the workers revolt actually included higher up management to make it work?
In the crisis times, the gov didn't have the money to continue hiring employees, so the amount of state employees kept steady, check this graphic
(http://imageshack.us/a/img826/3955/zn4k.jpg)
When the country started to improve its economical situation, it started hiring state employees, most of them because they were friends of the people in the gov, or to get political or other kind of favors.
(http://imageshack.us/a/img854/4176/4qt6.jpg)
First graphic shows national and provincial employees, the second graphic only national employees, that's why the difference.
In the second graphic we can see that:
- Between 1997 and 2011 the amount of state employees went from 720 thousands to 1.5 millons, that is a growth of 5% a year.
- In the same period the population only grow 1% a year.
I think the factories taken by the employees only kept the middle management, when the crisis ended and the situation improved the owners came back for their companies, that created a lot of trials.
3. How long before the crisis had citizens been denied rifles, or was this left over from years of dictatorship?
The semiautomatic rifles with a caliber bigger than .22 were forbidden by decree (executive order) on Jan 17th 1995, at that moment the president was Menem, and he was democratically elected, a few months after that decree he got re elected.
The decree 64/95 mentions that if you can justify a reason why you should own a semiauto rifle, a judge will authorize you to buy it, well, that's a lie.
No authorizations are given, rumors mention that you can get it if you are highly involved with current government.
Just as a note, CCW are not given anymore either, they just tell you you haven't a valid reason to carry and refuse the request.