ALCON,
National Intelligence Bulletin for Friday, 16 August 2024 to follow.
Risk Levels: (1) Outlook Stable, (2) Elevated Risk, (3) Imminent Risk
(1) Outlook Stable
Food & Ag: Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to outline her campaign?s economic policy, including food price controls, during a speech in Raleigh, NC. (Analyst
Comment: Harris?s food price controls are likely to follow Biden?s proposal on rent controls. Grocery stores and food producers operate on very low margins, and price controls
historically lead to shortages. - R.C.)
Low Intensity Conflict: Routine levels of Israel-Palestine protest activity.
(2) Elevated Risk
Energy: According to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, solar and wind power generation is expected to overtake coal power generation in 2024, rising to 16% of
national power generated from January to July. (Analyst Comment: This nominal increase is likely driven by coal power plant retirements. - R.C.)
Econ & Finance: International Longshoremen?s Association (ILA) President Harold Daggett said the ILA and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) ?are very far apart, particularly on
the economic issues. In fact, we are at an impasse.?
Geostrategic - NATO: The U.K. confirmed that Ukraine used British tanks in the attack on Kursk. Meanwhile, Kiev confirmed that the attack was meant to bring Russia to
achieve a better peace negotiation position. / Belarus moved additional troops to its border and threatened to cease diplomatic relations with Ukraine after the Ukrainian Air
Force entered Belarusian air space during the assault on Kursk, Russia.
(3) Imminent Risk
Geostrategic - MIDDLE EAST: Israel-Gaza peace talks are ongoing in Doha, Qatar. Israeli officials said they had been given significant leeway on key issues. Hamas officials
refused to attend but are represented by the Egyptians and Qataris. (Analyst Comment: The most dangerous scenario remains a mass casualty-inducing attack by Iran that
leads to full-scale war with Israel, however, I doubt this is the most likely course of action. - M.S.)
This is a public service of the Early Warning Network. Nothing follows. //
