Just looking at Pennsylvania, early election results 2024 vs 2020, Democrat/Republican.
2024 = 59%/31%
2020 = 65%/24%
2024 vs 2020 = -6 points/+7 points.
With those facts posted, remember that not all Democrats or Republican's are voting for Harris or Trump respectively, however, it certainly reflects the leaning of the Commonwealth. The Democrats have to pick up 6-7 points through cheating to equal 2020 by the close of voting on November 5, 2024.
Today, is the last day in PA for early voting.