Author Topic: Lone Wolf or Large Group?  (Read 395 times)

Offline pkveazey

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Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« on: February 04, 2018, 06:48:42 PM »
I've given this some serious thought and I can't definitively nail this one down. My reflex or knee jerk response is Lone Wolf. There is safety in numbers and that has a lot of merit but supplying and maintaining a large group is very difficult. Then there is always the probability of being infiltrated by the opposition. Then there is always some inept jackass who thinks he should be in charge and he causes hate and discontent among the group. When you think about it, the government is more afraid of the Lone Wolf and have been quite vocal about it. Personally, I have no problem assisting a large group but I'm pretty sure I would never join and take orders from them. I think I'm more inclined to maintain a loose connection with other Lone Wolves nearby and help keep each other alive and well. What other people don't know, they can't tell. After basic survival, Communications is important. That's why I have a ton of VHF/UHF handi-talkies. I can give one to each person or group that I trust to warn of danger or ask for assistance. What are your thoughts on this?

Offline Erick

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Re: Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2018, 07:39:09 PM »
You need to have enough people to keep a 24/7 guard.
One person is not enough for this.

Ideally your group ( because thats what survival needs a group) is large enough to do agriculture in phase III actually working the land.
One perosn not enough.

I think the lone Wolf may work during Phase 1 and during the transition from Phase 1 into Phase 2.

Phase review from an earlier post of mine:

"........

The phasing of a society's Collapse - My cut at it.

I often see folks arguing over what to do "during SHTF" and often they are all correct even though they worry about different things due to thinking about different aspects of surviving a collapse.
This is often due to thinking about a different timeline.

So I see timeline of (attempted?) survival may best be understood as occurring in 3 broad stroke phases:

- Phase 1 SHTF has started but in away thats not yet provoking the population at large to react yet.

In phase 1 of a major pandemic (just as an example) power may still be on... gasoline may still be available, but hospitals are full and infection spreading., maybe schools closed.. The population at large will stay where they are and try to maintain jobs as long as possible. They usually have nowhere to go anyway.
Preppers will start to retrograde to their BOL (if they have them and not living there already) or making final preparations if they live at the BOL .

Or in a grid down situation (again just as an example) in phase 1 the bulk of the population may still be waiting for the power to come back on..
But preppers would be bugging out.

So in summary Phase 1 is a time where the start of of a quick slide is obvious to some but not to all, a sense of moderate normalcy is still had by most .....police still operates and road travel is still possible without firearms.
I would say this phase could as short as a couple of days days (grid down) or a slong as a few weeks (pandemic). (I am deliberately excluding a economic slide because that can take decades and doesnt meet what we are trying to describe

So in phase 1 of a collapse preppers will be enroute to their BOL or if living in the BOL buying their last supplies before hunkering down.

In this phase travel by vehicle in the may still be possible in the country without excessive risk (given proper armed precautions and a bit of stored gas) . Some small degree of police coverage may also still exist.


-Phase 2 will be the highest physical threat phase.

This phase will be marked by the population centers emptying themselves.. and millions of people are on the march to "the countryside" or "the hills" where they feel they may be able to survive.
.
And the nice friendly family father you chatted with at a rest stop 100 miles away a couple months ago, will now be a raving beast willing to kill anyone who stands in the way of feeding his family....

Some guys banding together may form dangerous but small gangs who may act collectively.

(though they are likely poorly trained... and the groups wont be very large as feeding a large group via scavenging is near impossible.... the ex-military trained or led 200 member biker gangs so beloved of novelists may never materialize in our county..even in this phase.... especially as bikes too need gas and if such large groups ever do exist they can be expected to invariably break up eventually since in order to feed a large group via scavenging you need to cover distance.. impossible w/o a reliable gas source...so there is a physical ceiling for group marauder size in a collapse and its not a high ceiling... especially for mobile groups not possessing a reliable source of stored food....)

Those large populations are now fanned out from the cities... out over the countryside and "into the hills".. No matter how tucked away in the hills ...many starving people will come find us in this phase.....and by this point many of them will be armed in some fashion....

Even though numbers may be attritted already there will still be a LOT of them potentially overwhelming poorly armed or trained homesteads.

Another marker of phase 2 is any semblance of collective security as provided by police/gov't will have broken down completely (no more gas for police cruisers etc) and police cannot be relied on in any way to do anything positive.

But on the whole this phase will be marked by the greatest threat of physical violence to us and the nicer homesteads with plenty of animals can expect frequent shoot outs and near daily/nightly attempts at our animals almost right away.
Eventually even the less supplied retreats can expect frequent attacks from starving people.

Luckily preppers should still be able to still operate 100% on stored food at this time making our tactical burden more manageable.. as we can afford to (and likely must) focus on that threat as no one will be able to perform agriculture...
Going out with a tractor or a horse drawn plow on the field would immediately unleash hordes of starving people from the bushes that will kill you to eat your horse or take your fuel.

With so many people still alive but starving security will be everything.

Expect some retreats to have changed owners after phase two.

This phase will likely last many months and phase 2 is essentially that by now everyone has figured out collapse is happening but most are still alive and fighting for survival.

3) Phase 3 will be marked by the disappearance via starvation of most unprepped people..

In other words.. the industrial society that existed before.. allowed for many more people to be supported than after a collapse. A collapse of society will also mean the collapse of the ability to feed a lot of people.
When the population number have collapsed due to starvation and violence to a point where the much reduced size of the population now matches the resources of food production.. then you have entered Phase 3.

This will GREATLY diminish the constant threat .........and firefights should be very rare at this point ...(even though retreats perceived as week may still be victimized by other less scrupulous folks)

Agriculture will have started up again to the extent capable to feed the now much reduced population.. the disappearance of the starving masses will make it finally possible to till a field with a horse without being attacked by 100 starving people wanting to eat your horse.
IMO that is a key marker of Phase 3.
Food production is possible again on a larger scale due to diminished violence has the great majority of the population had died.

Via fair trade one might even cross level some specific specialized supplies or skills.

Again those retreats without enough boots-on-the-ground or too little ammo or too untrained in use of modern firearms.. will likely have changed owners during phase 2.

A just moderately competent group can overtake almost any retreat that doesn't not have proper security at night.... with little difficulty even if the attackers are not many..

....in many cases they will have simply taken over a retreat in a surprise attack at night and killed most of its inhabitants likely sparing only very few ......the young women as non threats will almost certainly be kept and may even adapt into relatively loyal members of the "new" retreat , (Stockholm syndrome as a common survival mechanism) especially once they had children from the attackers...,

.. look for society becoming much more medieval in culture as medieval society was adapted to a low resource pastoral lifestyle+ plus violence)

So in summary the final and only stable phase, Phase 3 will be marked by a roughly functioning society that has found a balance between the number of people alive and the ability to work the land via reduced efficiency in grid down.
Its hard to say what timeline might be
...

I think the fundamental reason folks on internet often argue what the best survival strategy is after a collapse , is they are all thinking about different phases of a collapse as the SHTF based on the novels they read the most.

PS: I (used to) do Disaster Analysis for a living.
..."

You may also consider the time now, Phase 0, also know as "Steady State" or in newer parlance the "Shaping Phase"

My suggestion would be to consider prefacing discussions that are phase specific with a reference for which phase our consideration or suggestion is intended to.. this sometimes may minimize confusion/argument and maximize our unity of effort.

Example someone may may write about  method to make gas last longer than most realize and label it "For your Phase 0/ Shaping consideration"

Or something like "my phase 2 supplies" may refer to firearms, ammo, fighting accessories and maybe even stored food.
"Phase 3 goods"  may be seeds, trade items like silver, engine oil, boots, sewing machine, plow for horse.. etc

A survival approach with a reasonable chance of success should probaly include considerations for all 3 phases (or 4 if you include Phase 0)
« Last Edit: February 04, 2018, 08:54:11 PM by Erick »
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Offline Kbop

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Re: Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2018, 08:37:35 PM »
whew, nicely done Erick.

Offline JoJo

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Re: Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2018, 09:16:47 PM »
 Eric I'm not an expert and your advice is expert but your thinking is of people under 50 years old. Those of us over the 60 and 70 mark still want to survive and that's why we prep. At our age younger men cannot be trusted at any stage be it 1, 2 or 3. We will be thought of as the easy mark and that's why I believe that Lone Wolf is the only thing for us.
 The only thing I can bring to a group is I can shoot. I shot in small bore rifle competition for 17 years and can still hit what I shoot at. Other than that I would be a liability. 

P.S.
 
 I believe in a collapse no matter the type the police will be taking care of their family's also and should not be trusted any more than a stranger.
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Offline pkveazey

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Re: Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2018, 09:44:40 PM »
All of what you said is valid but my notion of Lone Wolfing is during the most dangerous phase. The Phase where the last person you want to see is someone looking to take what you have and it doesn't matter whether they are Civilians or Government. I have no problem interacting with a large group during reconstruction.

Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2018, 11:39:48 AM »
Interesting discussion gentlemen. Thanks for starting it pkveazey.

Great write-up Erick! I always enjoy and mostly agree with what you write. Thanks for taking the time to put it into cohesive thought (s).

Now what JoJo wrote is right on for us more mature folks - Age not personality of course.  ;D

I realize that if we as a community do not join hands we will not survive. Join hands means, security, agriculture, medical, manufacturing, etc....You get it. I would also like to point out that folks in their golden years has a lot to offer a community. Max Velocity calls it The Auxiliary.

So in my way of thinking a close knit community is better than one large compound full of many hands. A community that is diverse with young hands and minds pared with the knowledge and experience of The Auxiliary.

Last, I think multiple 3-4 person fire teams are more valuable than large groups of security. Tough to infiltrate and to defeat. Huhammad Ali comes to mind, "Float like a butterfly sting like a bee!"   

Just some food for thought.

 
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Offline JoJo

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Re: Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2018, 02:02:56 PM »
 Pkveszey  I agree and I think phase 1 will only last 3 or 4 days before violent people start up and mug normal people for food, water and valuables. The beginning of phase 2 will be very hard to distinguish.   

 
Quote
All of what you said is valid but my notion of Lone Wolfing is during the most dangerous phase. The Phase where the last person you want to see is someone looking to take what you have and it doesn't matter whether they are Civilians or Government. I have no problem interacting with a large group during reconstruction.

Quote
So in my way of thinking a close knit community is better than one large compound full of many hands. A community that is diverse with young hands and minds pared with the knowledge and experience of The Auxiliary.

 
  I also agree with you JM but from what I've read there are only one to three million preppers in the US out of 330million people which makes it almost impossible to find a like minded person. I have one neighbor that has all of the tools to be a prepper including a generator but I don't know if he has any food stores. He is a very private person and doesn't talk much.

 Erick I really enjoy your write ups and I learn a lot which causes me to reevaluate my position. I keep looking and hoping for preppers close by. One of our local farmers raises sheep and when SHTF I will offer him night time security for payment and friendship.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 02:04:50 PM by JoJo »
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Offline pkveazey

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Re: Lone Wolf or Large Group?
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2018, 06:29:06 PM »
I probably should clarify my notion of Lone Wolf. Me and My wife would be my idea of a Lone wolf. I have her back and she has mine and we have prepped for the two of us to survive. We both are Ham Radio operators and can constantly communicate and we both have proper firearms if needed. I don't plan to hunker down and never leave the house. I plan to covertly check our surroundings and have a "Hide" in my wooded area where I can communicate with the wife about what is going on outside. I expect the night to be the most dangerous time and plan to use my hide at that time and I have night vision equipment. With the radio communication to the wife, I can tell her the exact moment she needs to put a 357 magnum round through the front or back door. If the group is no more than 6, I'm hoping that taking out 2 or 3 of them will change their minds about attacking our location. We are in a rural area about 20 miles from the nearest City.