X just came back up so I asked the same question of GROK. This was their updated list and prioritized with percentages. I will offer no comments as they are close to ones I already expressed in the previous post. Just the raw results from GROK.
Overview Summary:> Most Likely (≥50%): Immigration reduction, deportations, J6 pardons, Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, Middle East peace efforts, U.S. protests.
> Moderately Likely (30-49%): Conceal carry reciprocity, government corruption exposure, energy self-sufficiency, Supreme Court nominations, Epstein/Diddy list release.
> Low Likelihood (10-29%): Grid/internet outages, EU banking collapse, China's economy collapse, China/North Korea invasions, U.S. economy/supply chain collapse.
> Least Likely (<10%): U.S. control of Panama Canal.
Updated List with Probabilities and PrioritizationHigh Likelihood (50-90%)1)Illegal immigration is reduced to pre-2020 levels
Probability: 85%
Rationale: The Trump administration has prioritized immigration enforcement, with aggressive deportation policies and border security measures already reducing illegal border crossings significantly since March 2024. Encounters at the U.S. border dropped to historic lows by January 2025, and executive actions targeting "sanctuary cities" and visa revocations suggest a strong push to curb illegal immigration. Pre-2020 levels (e.g., ~400,000?500,000 apprehensions annually under Trump's first term) are within reach given current momentum.
2) The deportation of illegal immigrants process begins, an estimated 50% are deported in 2025
Probability: 70%
Rationale: Deportation efforts are underway, with high-profile raids and policies pressuring countries to accept their nationals. However, deporting 50% of an estimated 11-12 million undocumented immigrants (~5.5-6 million) in one year faces logistical and legal hurdles, including court backlogs and resistance from some states. While the administration's intent is clear, scaling to this level may take longer.
3) Trump gives pardons or clemency to all J6'ers based on charge/conviction
Probability: 65%
Rationale: Trump has already issued pardons for some January 6 defendants, and his rhetoric supports broad clemency for those convicted. Legal challenges and public backlash may complicate a blanket pardon, but selective pardons or commutations for most J6 defendants (especially those with lesser charges) are likely given his base's support.
4) Ukraine-Russia conflict ends
Probability: 60%
Rationale: Trump's administration has prioritized a ceasefire, with talks of a 30-day interim ceasefire and negotiations in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Both sides have expressed willingness to negotiate, but Russia's battlefield advantage and Putin's maximalist goals may stall a permanent peace. A temporary ceasefire or "quasi-peace" is plausible, though a full resolution is less certain.
5) Relative peace in the Middle East due to Trump
Probability: 55%
Rationale: Trump's "peace through strength" approach, including sanctions on Iran and support for Israel, aims to stabilize the region. Progress in Gaza and Lebanon conflicts is possible, but Iran's nuclear ambitions and proxy conflicts (e.g., Houthis) remain volatile. A broader peace deal is aspirational but challenging within one year.
6) Second round of "Mostly Peaceful Protests" in U.S. cities
Probability: 50%
Rationale: Anti-Trump protests (e.g., "Hands Off!" and "2021" movements) have occurred in 2025, with over 1,200 events by April. These have been largely peaceful but smaller than 2020's BLM protests. Continued unrest is possible if policies like deportations or budget cuts escalate tensions, but widespread 2020-scale protests are less likely absent a major trigger.
Moderate Likelihood (30-49%)7) Federal statute allows conceal carry reciprocity across state lines
Probability: 45%
Rationale: Republican control of Congress and Trump's pro-Second Amendment stance make this feasible. Bills like the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act have been proposed before, but opposition from blue states and legal challenges could delay or derail passage. Momentum exists, but 2025 passage is not guaranteed.
The corruption of USA government for the last four years will be exposed
Probability: 40%
Rationale: Trump's narrative of "draining the swamp" and investigations into Biden-era policies (e.g., DOJ, FBI) are likely to produce reports or hearings alleging corruption. However, concrete, broadly accepted evidence of systemic corruption may be limited by partisan divides and lack of definitive proof. Public perception may split along political lines.
9) United States will become 100% energy self-sufficient
Probability: 35%
Rationale: The U.S. was a net energy exporter in 2019-2020 under Trump, but "100% self-sufficiency" (no imports) is challenging. Crude oil imports (e.g., ~6 million barrels/day in 2024) persist due to refinery needs and cost. Deregulation and expanded drilling may reduce imports, but full self-sufficiency by 2025 is ambitious.
10) Trump will recommend one to two new Supreme Court justices
Probability: 30%
Rationale: Justices Thomas (76) and Alito (75) are the oldest, but no retirements are confirmed. Trump appointed three justices in his first term, and GOP Senate control would ease confirmations. However, justices typically time retirements strategically, and 2025 is early for vacancies absent health issues.
Low Likelihood (Below 29%)11) Epstein and P Diddy client list will be released
Probability: 25%
Rationale: Public interest in Epstein and Diddy cases persists, but legal barriers (e.g., sealed records, ongoing investigations) and privacy concerns make full client list releases unlikely. Partial leaks or court disclosures are possible but not a comprehensive list in 2025.
12) Roving electric grid outages around USA
Probability: 20%
Rationale: Grid reliability concerns exist due to aging infrastructure and renewable energy transitions, but widespread "roving outages" are not currently reported. Extreme weather or cyberattacks could cause localized outages, but a national crisis is less likely without a major trigger.
13) Roving internet outages around USA
Probability: 20%
Rationale: Cybersecurity threats and infrastructure vulnerabilities exist, but no evidence suggests widespread internet outages in 2025. Localized disruptions (e.g., from hacks or storms) are more likely than "roving" national outages.
14) EU banking system collapses
Probability: 15%
Rationale: The EU banking system faces challenges (e.g., high debt in some countries, ECB rate pressures), but a full collapse is improbable. Stress tests show resilience, and no major bank failures are reported in 2025. Localized crises (e.g., in weaker economies) are more plausible.
15) China economy collapses
Probability: 15%
Rationale: China's economy faces structural issues (e.g., property sector debt, slowing growth), but a total collapse is unlikely. The CCP's control and reserves provide stability. Tariffs and trade tensions may exacerbate challenges, but not to the point of collapse in 2025.
16) China invades some country(s), maybe Laos, Vietnam, Bangladesh
Probability: 10%
Rationale: China's focus is on Taiwan and regional influence, not direct invasion of Laos, Vietnam, or Bangladesh. These countries are either allies or strategically less critical. Nationalist rhetoric exists, but invasion is low-probability without a major shift in policy.
17) North Korea invades South Korea
Probability: 10%
Rationale: North Korea's provocations (e.g., missile tests) continue, but a full-scale invasion is unlikely due to U.S.-South Korea deterrence and China's influence. Kim Jong-un's regime prioritizes survival over suicidal escalation.
18) USA economy collapses
Probability: 10%
Rationale: The U.S. economy faces risks (e.g., debt ceiling, tariffs, impact), but a collapse (e.g., Great Depression-scale) is improbable. Growth forecasts for 2025 remain positive (~2?3%), and unemployment is low. Policy missteps could cause recession, but not collapse.
19) USA supply chain collapses
Probability: 10%
Rationale: Supply chain disruptions (e.g., from tariffs or geopolitics) are possible, but a total collapse is unlikely. The U.S. has diversified supply chains since COVID, and domestic production is increasing. Localized issues (e.g., port strikes) are more plausible.
20) USA assumes control of the Panama Canal
Probability: 5%
Rationale: The U.S. has no legal or practical basis to seize the Panama Canal, which Panama controls under the 1977 treaties. Trump's rhetoric about canal fees exists, but military or administrative control is highly improbable without global backlash.
It is interesting how they differ.
Thoughts?
