When Will Russia Move On The Ukraine?

[JohnyMac]

I am NO military strategist at all; However, I am putting my predictions out there.

I do think Russia will invade the Ukraine but when. Here is the weather for the next 10-days in Kiev. Would you go this week or not?



Full moon starting tonight.
President O' Biden to give second press conference tomorrow, after one year in office.
Nasty weather coming into D.C. starting with rain on Wednesday, then moving into frozen rain/snow Thursday.

Put on your Gen. Patton helmets - When do you attack?

[Nemo]

Wolf moon was last night.

Nemo

[Felix]

We used to fight during the "fighting season" then lay up for the Winter.  Muslim tribesmen still doing much the same in modern times.
Then we geared up for all seasons, played fast and loose with "tradition"..   And Washington crossed the Delaware to surprise wintering mercenaries.
Developments in electronica enabled operations in dark and poor visibility, i.e. radar, etc.
Latest?    Available to you and me?  ...and assorted militaries and para-militaries around the world?
Night vision for the individual, both ambient and thermal.
Were I a Russian and looking to attack Ukraine, my plans would depend on best intelligence gathered to compare relative strengths/weakness in severe conditions.  Throw in parameters for how much air support/resupply calculated for and go from there.   I'd go for whatever best asymmetric advantage I could find.
Phases of the moon are but one of many salient factors being weighed.
And don't forget Kazakhstan... at the moment, Putin has to divide some measure of resource and attention there.   He might want to fix problems on the southern border before proceeding confidently with whatever designs have been worked up for Ukraine.

[JohnyMac]

  Great thoughts Felix. 

[Felix]

Great thoughts haven't derailed the trains still brining powerful weaponry to the lines.   Putin means to force concessions where borders/NATO is concerned.   Or shape "concessions" on the ground by physically taking/administering ground.  History has hammered home the need for depth of defense (control of resources pretty good too :-)) .
As we push to remove those Russian buffers by adding new territories to the NATO rolls, I wonder how Americans would perceive similar encroachments by a country like China... making military treaties with countries in South America or even Canada?

[DMCakhunter]

They should attack with the next cold snap in Europe. Would be better for them if it will last longer.
Europe will be paralyzed with fear of cold and energy.

[JohnyMac]

Just between us girls, I think the EU wants Russia to attack. Their economy and covid response is terrible and the folks over there are rising up. They need a conflict of pretty good magnitude to ride the economic and covid break-up wave.

This will not play well with this group however...When Russia enters the Ukraine, I hope O' Biden supports the Ukrainians (NATO) with heavy weaponry but not US soldiers.

[Felix]

On the face of it, what could be more ludicrous than "keyboard warrior/diplomats" presuming to judge and predict matters of a country on the other side of the world who speak languages we don't?   What access do we have to intel of depth, quality and newness, compared to our "betters"?
And yet.
Like with blind men describing the elephant, each touching a different part, a picture emerges.
Yet a funny thing... these blind, isolated and insulated men _are_ able to suss out truth and probabilities.
Thanks to the inept, mendacious, even treasonous behaviors and decision making of the current DC occupants, I have come to firmly believe...we'd get better government if all of the Congress-critter's positions were filled by people whose name was drawn randomly from the phone book.

"This will not play well with this group however...When Russia enters the Ukraine, I hope O' Biden supports the Ukrainians (NATO) with heavy weaponry but not US soldiers."

From what I see over at American Partisan, former US soldiers (once a Marine, always a Marine?) are tired of spilling their blood over "neo-conservative", "military/industrial complex", "New Word Order" dust-ups instigated by fools and thieves.
I am too.
Agree, no US soldiers should be on front lines.   But what does this mean to NATO then?   And does it even matter if NATO has become a caricature or dead letter?

[CJS06]

Great remarks from Felix. He is correct in basically saying "what do we really know". That said there are things that seem evident that unfortunately will only be determined correct or not by historians.

Following President Dumbass' speech last night It seems as if we have given Russia a simple strategy if they do decide to invade (i believe it is inevitable at this point). As long as they are "minor" incursions we will do nothing militarily. Simply death of 1000 cuts. I also do not want to see American troops deployed in an active conflict again.  Unfortunately if we do not, heavy weapons or no, NATO is effectively not worth the paper the docs are written on.

Unfortunately the policies of both Russia and our current admin are almost pushing, tempting the Russians to invade.  These policies almost gain their own gravity until they become a self fulfilling prophecy.  Its not like there isnt plenty of historical events to look back on to see a pattern.

Chris

[JohnyMac]

As I have already posted many times  the EU is done. They need a war to alleviate what is coming down the pike - Collapse. War and collapse is what Klaus Schwab and the Davos group need to implement their Fascist version of the Brave New World.

Then we have President O' Biden working on his version of the Brave New World Aka, Build, Back, Better, AKA, The Great Reset.

It is interesting that Glenn Beck's new book, The Great Reset: Joe Biden and the Rise of Twenty-First-Century Fascism is sold out and over at Amazon you can't even back order it for the second printing. So far this week (Monday through Wednesday) Becks book has sold over 54,000 copies. The next big sale book was around 21,000 books. Yet The New York Times has his book at # 12th in book sales for the week.

Okay, it is fun to see what is going on at the neighbor's house however, do not lose focus on getting your house in order for a long dark 2022. Or as O' Biden says, "Winter of Severe Illness and Death".