USA Vs. China - The Up & Coming Trade War

[JohnyMac]

I have been watching and wondering how this "trade war" will play out between China and USA. Here are my thoughts and I would like to read your thoughts. Please stay away from, "we are the big bad boys on the block" argument.

Trump and his advisors are playing a risky game of 5-dimensional chess with China while playing checkers with the rest of the world. The question is, will this game cause a change in the CCP management structure due to an economic collapse or will China come out the victor, to then become "the world economic leader". In the end, Trump will get most of what he wants from the rest of the world.

Most likely China's economy will end up like Japan's in the 1990's with stagnation; Unfortunately, the CCP as we know it will survive to attempt world economic domination yet again somewhere down the road. It is almost as if Trump has popped a smoke grenade to hide his maneuvering (negotiations) with the rest of the globe while focusing the worlds attention on the trade war between China & USA.

Here are some facts along with some of my comments concerning China that I have been able flush out using the internet.

> Structural Imbalances and Overcapacity: Decades of prioritizing industrial production over consumption have led to massive overcapacity in sectors like steel, automobiles, and real estate.

> Real Estate Crisis: The property sector, once a cornerstone of growth (contributing ~20-25% to GDP), is in a prolonged slump.

> Debt Levels: China's total debt (public and private) exceeds 365% of GDP, among the highest for middle-income countries.

> Weak Consumption and Confidence: Household consumption remains subdued due to declining real estate wealth, fragile labor markets, and high savings rates. Youth unemployment exceeds 17%.

> Policy Constraints: Beijing's cautious stimulus measures since 2020, including interest rate cuts and limited fiscal support, have failed to restore confidence or boost consumption.

> External Pressures: Escalating trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., threaten exports, a key growth pillar. Proposed U.S. tariffs (up to 60%) could disrupt trade, and China's limited retaliatory options (e.g., yuan depreciation) risk capital flight.

What are your thoughts on how this plays out?

 

[zanedclark]

I have made repeated replies to this post only to not hit the "go button".  I read a Ray Dalio book in 2022 that China would emerge as the world dominate country.  I believed, this time last year, that regardless of who was to become President, the US economy was going to be in trouble due to the national debt.

I believe that 47 is making the effort to bring a nationalism mindset back to the country which I applaud, but I also believe that there will be substantial pain regardless.  China's population is falling, reports are that China's debt problem is worse than ours.  If tariffs cause a fall of exports for China then the world pain could be sooner than later. 

Here is my mind set.  During the 2008 downturn I worried myself sick about what would happen to wife and me and our personal economy.  I refuse to take that mindset again.   JM this issue that you bring up is at the core of this forum.  Are we individually prepared for whatever is thrown at us. 

zane

[JohnyMac]

Great comments ZC 

I have had a similar discussion with the more financial astute within my MAG. Amongst them, they are still prepping and keeping an eye on the ridgeline. The others of the MAG have fallen off a bit on their preps BUT still have the prepping mindset.

It's the old adage, "everything in moderation". With that written, I have slimed down my prepping dollars spent to spending more time doing things that will benefit my MAG in a SHTF drama. Getting more involved with ARES, Red Cross, local government, etc. One of my goals is to become a bit more visible locally so if the SHTF I can jump in to help quicker than if I was an unknown. 

MrsMac is a recovering alcoholic - 32 years to be exact. One of the things that I live by is the Serenity Prayer advocated by AA.

"God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference."

Along with that my wife has taught me to not "future trip".

I encourage all folks whether you are prepper or not, to,

1) Change the things you can,
2) Do all things in moderation, and
3) Focus on things locally, not globally.

Good stuff Brother. 

[DMCakhunter]

JM,

I would have to say that both China and the US will not back down, so we are in for a long slog.
In the short term, the current inventory of china produced items will sell out over time, to be replaced with "nothing". A lot of the things that we purchase in the stores come from china and no alternate manufacturer will be able to step in with replacements for some time. Electronics, tools, clothes, chemicals, pharma products - these things will not be quickly replaced by other countries. There will be attempts to ship items to other countries and relabel and attempt to ship back to the US. That is already happening in the chemical market.
While there is a lot of talk over financial disruption on both sides, China's financial reporting is unreliable, so only time will tell.
The US will be able to get through this but there will be disruptions in our shopping experience.
Ultimately, if there is something that you want, better get it now before it is gone, and you have to wait a year for replacements from another country.

[JohnyMac]

Hey DM. Good to hear from you.

I had 5 items in the que to order from AMAZON. I received a PM from them that due to tariffs my previous day total was being adjusted to represent new prices. Four of the five items prices went higher. On the average about 10%. I looked later today and three of the five had gone up 25%.

Two things,
1) Yupper prices on items ESPECIALLY from China will go up. I get that, but
2) I wonder how many retailers will take advantage of this play on tariffs  , if you get my drift.

Bottom-line, if you can even if things are a bit pricier, buy local. ✌

[pkveazey]

Dammit, Dammit, Dammit...... I gave away a pair of brand new Bao Feng HT's to a friend. Hmmmmm.... A month later I decided to just order another identical pair. March 15th, I ordered them. Every time I check with Amazon, I get the same delivery schedule. The tracking Schedule though shows that they have not yet been shipped. Uuuuuuhhhhhh, What? The delivery schedule says that they will be delivered between April 17th and April 27th. As best I can tell, they haven't even left China. How can they possibly be delivered by April 27th? So far, I haven't seen any price increase notices from Amazon but I'm betting that will soon happen.

[Sir John Honeybucket]

Maybe I can make some cash on this: go on TIKTOK and tell the vidiots that these PREPPER HAM RADIOS are BANNED, abd I have only my stock remaining. Sell them for only $200 but hurry, the price will only rise, IF you can find them


Then I'll buy a nice KX2 from Elecraft.   :-)


It's a thought. 

De Sir John Honeybucket

Ps. TODAY was - as is normal - Spring planting and garden prep.  Old school hand tools, locally sourced starters and seeds we've saved for years. After covid.gov banning seed sales during the height of their panic,  we are not allowing ourselves to be exposed to that threat, so became serious about seed saving.   We live on the salt water, so I need to work on my.fishing skills. I'd rather fish for cows, but evidently that is illegal: cattle theft.