May 2025 - Food For Thought

[JohnyMac]

I was up early this morning-around 5:30 a.m., which is early for me. After feeding the critters and brewing a strong cup of coffee, I found myself mulling over some pressing economic concerns for the rest of this quarter, particularly May. Here's what's keeping me up, and why I think you should pay attention too.

Economic Concerns for May 2025

I'm bracing for turbulence in the coming months, and May feels like a critical flashpoint. Here are three reasons why:

Geopolitical Volatility in Ukraine and the Middle East
May could be a volatile month due to escalating tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Keep your eyes on the eastern horizon-developments in these regions could disrupt global energy markets, drive oil prices higher, and rattle investor confidence. From potential military escalations to sanctions tightening, the ripple effects could hit economies worldwide.

Tariff-Driven Shortages from China
The U.S. is likely to feel the first real pinch of goods shortages in May, driven by new tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports. These trade barriers, rolled out earlier this year, are starting to disrupt supply chains. Expect delays and reduced availability of everything from electronics to household goods.

Inflation Pressures from Tariffs and Shifting Demand
Tariff-induced shortages will naturally push prices up, fueling inflation on imported goods. As consumers and businesses pivot to domestic products to avoid higher costs, demand for U.S.-made goods will surge, putting upward pressure on prices here too. This double-whammy of import and domestic inflation could strain household budgets and business margins alike.

JohnyMac Tip: If you're planning big projects this summer-whether it's home renovations or business expansions-now's the time to stockpile supplies. Prices are only going one way...up.

Domestic Political Risks on the Radar

Beyond global economic headwinds, several domestic issues are brewing that could shake things up here at home. As the saying goes, promises made, promises kept. Here are three developments to watch in the remaining months of Q2:

Political Prosecutions Looming
I expect political prosecutions to ramp up in May and June. Many of us voted for accountability, and the 'perp walks' we've been waiting for are likely on the way. High-profile investigations could dominate headlines, potentially polarizing public sentiment and unsettling markets.

Escalating Immigration Crackdowns
Deportations-both voluntary and forced-are set to intensify, reaching a point where no amount of legal maneuvering will halt them. The escalation of illegal immigration policies will likely spark heated debates and could strain local economies, particularly in border states.

SCOTUS vs. Lower Court Lawfare
The Supreme Court will eventually need to intervene to curb the questionable legality of lower courts' "lawfare" attacks against the Executive Branch. I suspect SCOTUS will uphold the Constitution, which could trigger a fierce backlash from the far left-think "mostly peaceful protests 2.0." Stay tuned for this high-stakes showdown, likely unfolding later in Q2 and into Q3.

Final Thoughts
May 2025 could be a pivotal month, with global and domestic challenges converging to test our economic resilience. From geopolitical shocks to tariff-driven inflation and political fireworks, the next few months demand vigilance. Stock up, stay informed, and brace for impact. What are your thoughts? Share them in the comments below-I'd love to hear how you're preparing for what's ahead.

 

[Sir John Honeybucket]

The India vs Pakistan pre-war is going right now. India in retaliation for a terrorist attack in the Kashmiri region, shut-off roughly 80% of Pakistan's water, which India controls. Pakistan threatened to bomb and destroy those valves/dams.  As late as last year, Pakistan admitted that it's ground forces are inferior to India's forces, so by that logic, Pakistan ( at that time ) said in the event of a losing war with India, Pakistan would 'be forced' to use their nuclear weapons to destroy the Indian Army and important Indian population centers.  Once the nukes come out, the question is who else will hop in?  Iran, N. Korea,  Israel,  New Jersey ?

Remember, the Indian ocean dominates the exit points from the Suez canal and Iranian and other  exports ( oil to China ).  If things go large scale war in the region, that would likely disrupt even more global shipping.  The USA is not in the bullseye, but Chinese oil purchases and much of the exports/import business to/from Europe would be impacted and the jobs associated with it.


Sporty times !


- Sir John Honeybucket

Ps. Fortunately, my supply of coffee and tobacco should not be impacted.

[JohnyMac]

Very good point Sir John.

Just another example of how May will be a Frosty one. 

[Nemo]

Friends close, full kit closer.

Nemo

[Hope]

Aware and heeding the warning. Everyday is a new day to prep for what is ahead until it isn't. Keep at it, friends!

[RB in GA]

Not really worried about India and Pakistan going nuclear.  India can't afford to push it with China on her borders, plus neither country wants a nuclear war neither would "win".  There have been several flashpoints in Kashmir in the recent past, including the shooting down of an Indian fighter by Pakistan- all resolved relatively peacefully. Pakistan is posturing, similar to how North Korea does, as reminder (mostly for their own population's benefit) for India to not things too far.

[pkveazey]

JohnyMac seems to be noticing the beginnings of what I read about around 2 months ago. Some economic guru said that August was going to be the month to watch as far as the total collapse of the economy. I started seeing early signs in April and I expect things to slowly get worse as we approach August. I took a wait and see attitude. Hmmmm..... I'm pretty sure the economic guru knew what he was talking about. This economic thing is slowly picking up speed and I think we will go over the waterfall in August and it will happen very suddenly. John Q Public (The blindfolded dumbasses) will never see it coming until it hits them right in the face. Nobody in the mainstream media is talking about all the countries around the world who are hoarding Gold and Silver. If you ain't got it, you ain't gonna get it. We clearly are going to be going back on a precious metals monetary system. All these fools who use plastic money and go digital are going to lose everything. Hmmmm..... Do I have any sympathy for them? Nope, I have been warning everybody that I could, that plastic money will be their downfall. Where can you find sympathy? It's in the dictionary, somewhere between Shit and Syphilis.

[JohnyMac]

  PKv. "Between shit and syphilis". 

I know that a gaggle of economists are saying similar to what PKv and I wrote. I suspect when you pull back the curtain it is why Trump is doing what he is doing with the tariff deal-e-o. Trying to shore up our economy to the best he can before the SHTF.

FLASHBACK:

Back in 2003 or 2004, I was a member of a small blog called "MrLock&Load". At that time most of the subscribers were gearing up for the apocalypses primarily buying up shitons of ammo and firepower to prepare for war. My message at the time was always; yes you need to protect yourself however, you need to diversify with your preps ala beans, band-aides & bullets. I also predicted that there would be a war of sorts but post the collapse of the worlds economy not before the collapse.

Well men being men, who basically were the only subscribers to the site thought I was foolish in my prediction and more bang bangs was the answer.

We will see.   

[Nemo]

Anyone paying attention to the goings on between India and Pakistan?

If not you better start.  Both have nukes and I suspect neither has normal world constraint on using them.

Nemo

overview

https://www.rferl.org/a/india-pakistan-war-nuclear-kashmir-modi-water-treaty/33396913.html

https://theconversation.com/india-and-pakistan-are-on-war-footing-can-they-be-brought-back-from-the-brink-255504

[Nemo]

FLASHBACK:
 preps ala beans, band-aides & bullets.

And when you run out of cabinet, closet, basement and attic space for those, remember the other places for bullion and barter stuff.

Nemo

[Nemo]

Addendum to #8 above.

Nemo

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-pakistan-calls-trump-help-prevent-nuclear-war-india-2066116

[JohnyMac]

Interesting development Nemo. 

[JohnyMac]

Another thing to remember whether looking at the grid down situation in western EU or the recent power outages in the Pittsburg Pennsylvania area due to sever storms, .gov ain't coming to rescue your butt.

I know that I am like beating a dead horse here by pointing that out, however, if you expect .gov to come and save you, it ain't going to happen (yes reductant statement). If it does, it will come with stipulations weeks later then probably needed. If you only do one think to prep, have on hand at least one months cash reserves. If the juice stops flowing so does the interwize. Bank cards and ATM's will be a thing of the past for days, weeks, or who knows. Cash will rule.

One last item. The chances of the EU going to digital currency by year end is high. Look at the end of the summer beginning of the fall as a change time. If the EU goes digital currency so will Canada probably the next day.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, is a huge proponent of digital currency. Take the time to do your own research on Carney's background and earlier career.

"It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle." - Sun Tzu

[pkveazey]

The general public (Sheeple) seem to have a hound dog mentality. They live in the moment and think that tomorrow will be just like today. I live in today but prepare for next year. I firmly believe that 2025 will be a year to remember. I expect a massive crash before the year ends. It would be nice if I'm wrong, but I just have that feeling that makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

[Sir John Honeybucket]

Having preps; a well stocked pantry, an old school 'Victory Garden' and alt power for basic lighting and radios.  There is not any loss and a lot of gain.  When my leg was destroyed in an industrial accident, our household income dropped by about 1/3rd, medical bills and more.  OTOH, the food was already in the pantry, cupboards full of of spices and etc. made the time far less stressful until the money began to flow again, which took too many months.  It could be weather, job insecurity, health or just the desire to make and eat 'real food'.  Even a little preparation goes a long way.

Sir John Honeybucket