Author Topic: Erick PLEASE  (Read 800 times)

Offline JoJo

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Erick PLEASE
« on: October 22, 2017, 12:53:51 PM »
Quote
We can also take this to phone and I can talk more about this.


PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let us all know. I for one am very interested on your knowledge of EMP.   
An EMP scares me more than anything else.
In principle, no less than in practice, socialism is the ideology of thieves and tyrants.

Offline Erick

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2017, 09:46:10 PM »
Sorry I missed this.
I usually check the "new Posts" link..
And somehow I miss a lot of posts this way. :zombitron:
If there is ever anything specific please feel free to PM me with a link to a thread..

Haven't been real active on forums past few weeks but will do some catching up.

English is not my native language (German is) so even though I communicate very easily in spoken English its always a bit of an effort for me to put together a coherent essay on a subject. I can do it.. it just takes more effort+ time,... sometimes a lot of time.. . :hiding:

I'll reserve a couple hours this weekend to answer this (and the Nuke leak) thread on here.
 :dance:
« Last Edit: November 24, 2017, 09:50:22 PM by Erick »
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Offline Erick

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2017, 09:46:43 PM »
Sorry fellas just got back from one week trianing course.. got stuck at airports.. got sick.. Now am back.

Ask anything  :gasMask:
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Offline JoJo

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2017, 10:16:05 PM »
 In the top post I asked about EMP's which scare the hell out of me.
 About the NOKO satellites that pass over the US every few hours and are the correct height for an EMP attack. do you think they are nuclear?
If they are there won't be any time to prepare like put stuff in mylar for protection but a missile would give about 20 min.
 If a ground blast missile was used would the curvature of the earth be of any help and an air blast used to destroy a target how high up would the blast need be for a 1-2 punch, Destruction and EMP?
 This nuke map shows destruction but doesn't mention EMP effect.

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I hope I made sense. My wife and I are 76 years old so many of the actions that are needed to be taken would be either very hard or impossible for us to do.
Thanks
Jojo

   
In principle, no less than in practice, socialism is the ideology of thieves and tyrants.

Offline Erick

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2017, 12:40:53 AM »
JoJo,

Part1:
It's not impossible but personally I do not think it likely at all those satellites have nuclear warheads.

I am allowed to say this because I have NOT read the official classified Intel assessment on them.
If I had read the official assessment I would not be allowed to answer one way or another (them's the rules.... Also, I dont trust those all that much anyway and prefer my own analysis, because staffs are often too eager to paint the worst case scenario in those, because its sexiest. Often I am also unimpressed by the competence of those who create these assessments)

When you study published open sources articles you can find on global security . org and similiar sites (which IMO are usually just as good or better as the classified stuff) you will find that few, if any, sources credit  NoKo with having produced many warheads at all.

So in order for those satellites to have a warhead on them NoKo would have needed to have 2 high yield warheads fully operational BEFORE those satellites were launched.. AND have enough extras to be willing to risk two of them, on their very failure prone rocket launches.
This does not seem probable at all.

Also for any EMP to cover large areas... thermonuclear devices (aka "Hydrogen Bomb") are really the only option .. regular "Atom Bombs" just wont do.

But NoKo only very recently tested a Thermonuclear device which is after the launch of those satellites.
The likelihood of Thermonuclear devices put on those satellites before even getting in the first underground test done is essentially Zero, even for  a nation state level player.

Because the first successful test of a new level of weapon always precedes operational deployment.. One cannot operational deploy what isnt operational yet.

So, I am quite confident those satellites do not have a thermonuclear load.

I'll get to the 2nd part of your question tomorrow.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 04:02:47 PM by Erick »
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Offline pkveazey

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2017, 06:00:26 AM »
I have a paper on EMP effects. Their EMP effect chart was based on a 10 megaton air blast. Basically at 50 miles up, over Kansas,  it would take out the grid in about 3 states in all directions. At 90 miles up, it would effect all the continental states to some degree. At 300 miles up, it would severely effect all of them. At 300 miles up, there would be a lot of pissed off Canadians and Mexicans also. The effects are definitely line of sight so a low altitude blast would be blocked by the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian mountains. Another thing to take into account is that devices that operate above 100 Mhz, would be much less affected because of the very short antennas. The difference between a lightning strike and an EMP is the duration of the pulse. An EMP is an extremely short blip and a lightning strike is a much longer duration. The effects are very similar. One thing that must be considered is a Spread Effect. Lets say Kansas gets smoked by an EMP and the EMP gets carried out to adjacent states. Then when Kansas has no electricity, the surrounding states electrical demand will drastically increase because they will be trying to feed electricity to the states that don't have any. That will overload those surrounding states system and may cause them to black out. Then if they black out, the other surrounding states get overloaded and the blackout could keep spreading.

Offline JoJo

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2017, 09:20:47 AM »
 Thanks to both of you for information that I couldn't find anywhere else.

@pkveazey

Quote
devices that operate above 100 Mhz, would be much less affected
Am I correct in assuming that some if not most automobiles will not be affected?

 
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Offline Erick

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2017, 12:11:28 PM »
" If a ground blast missile was used would the curvature of the earth be of any help and an air blast used to destroy a target how high up would the blast need be for a 1-2 punch, Destruction and EMP?
 This nuke map shows destruction but doesn't mention EMP effect.

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I hope I made sense. My wife and I are 76 years old so many of the actions that are needed to be taken would be either very hard or impossible for us to do.
Thanks
Jojo
"

part 2 ( let me know if this answers your question):

first lets discuss the modeling software that is freely available:
As a long time modeler let me give you some information/guidance that will help you use this program better for your own curiosities as preppers.

While Even now with North Korea in the news I dont see a Nuclear Armaggedon coming anytime soon, the sheer brutality of such explosions if/when they do occur make them a natural subject of interest for us.

I think how to use it it simple enough so I will talk about a couple things you may not know:

- The primary modeling software used by Response and modeling professionals is HPAC. I will only reference the unclassified version of HPAC here.
HPAC has a lot more granularity and mapping options (and works for non Nuke hazards too) than Nuke map .. but for Nuclear detonations the differences are actually kinda small.
- I have actually used Nukemap at work before when I was on the road and my HPAC computer took a dump and I needed a product RIGHT NOW. So its good enough for many situations.
- Most of the yields listed to choose from are fairly large rooted in the tradition of the cold war with Nation States throwing huge sums of money lobbing large warheads with inaccurate guidance systems (which means large warheads needed).
Modern Nuclear explosions if they ever do occur you can expect to be much smaller. because Nations states now have so accurate delivery systems that they can afford to use/build the lower yield devices. ...and as for terrorists they simply will struggle to get the materials and as soon as they have enough for a functioning device, any size device,  you can plausibly expect them to start building .
They will not plausibly have to patience to wait another year and another year to make a device bigger when they already have enough. So from Terrorists expect even smaller than from modern nation states.
The extreme upper limit for a terrorist built device would likely be in the Hiroshima bomb range 15kt.
And frankly I expect much smaller. Remember how NoKo was struggling for  a long time to even get out of the single digit KTs and they are a Nation State with much more resources in expertise and material than any terrorist group can be plausibly possess.
- Nukemap , like many ( but not all) other modeling sources does NOT account for hills or solid concrete buildings shielding people from blast and also assume that everyone is in the open.
...this creates dramatically increased casualties for those models to publish those figures (which Nukemap thankfully does not, as they are so incredibly misleading)
- Modern American concrete buildings have a tremendous ability to attenuate and even shield folks downrange from the blast. People remember the moonscape of Hiroshima but forget that those houses were almost all built out of pressed cardboard.
Modern steel reinforced concrete structures are at even a modicum of distance, ( depending o(yield depending of course) are surprisingly resilient.
Depending on yield you may see significant protection much closer than most PPL think. I encourage to play around w/ the program and look at the 20psi line which is building collapse line for modern steel reinforced concrete.
if you are past that and the house is between line-of-sight of u and the event you will enjoy significant advantage.
For example a 15kt Hiroshima style device set off on street level in lower Manhattan would probably topple adjacent skyscrapers but likely not topple all or even most buildings in lower Manhatten.. almost exclusively those within a few blocks of the device.
And just one remaining standing between you and an event would exert a tremendous shielding effect from blast, thermal and even prompt radiation for you.
(This all holds best for a terrorist device in a van at street level or in a not too tall parking garage).
To illustrate this point a modern concrete bridge in Hiroshima that was only 270 feet from ground zero remained standing and usable.
- This is a huge limitation when trying to adjudicate risk in a modern american built up area.

Even so with all these limitations listed above Nukemap is a valuable tool... but more so outside of major urban areas where the plot can be expected to be a bit more accurate for some of the reasons listed above.

Anyone here is welcome to give me a location they want to comment on how applicable and accurate it can be expected to be in their particular terrain.

So in summary: Curvature of Earth would not have much effect because Nuclear weapons effects (except fallout) generally do not act far enough to be affected by it.
They generally act much less far than PPL tend to think.
Building and hills in the way between you and a (relatively) nearby explosion can be quite effective at protecting you and yours.
For  aground burst the EMP effect only travels not much further than the airblast radius.
Depending on weather conditions you are only looking at a few blocks range of EMP (for  a ground burst!)

An airburst depending on the size of the device and altitude could send EMP anywhere from a few miles ( smaller warhead, lower altitude ) to a couple thousand miles (huge warhead huge altitude)

Above a certain altitude a nuclear explosions ONLY effect on the ground is EMP.
Tests during cold war had some unprotected men stand at ground zero under  a nuclear explosion that just just high enough to not affect them.

I do not know if folks wanting to cause us harm would want to double up on such a irreplaceable and rare assets as  a nuclear device to attack a single spot.
The only players that could "afford" such largesse are the United States and Russia. even France, UK and Israel (all said to have in the neighborhood of 200 warheads) are unlikely to do this .

Even thought both the Soviets and the US are said to have toyed with such an approach against hardened enemy missile sites in the height of the Cold War....NoKos or terrorists are extremely unlikely to have an excess of redundant deployable assets to do a double whammy as u describe.

I hope this answered your questions.

keep 'em coming fellas.
I am sick at home on the computer, now is the time  :dance:

PS: Thanks for the kind words pkeazy
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 10:48:48 PM by Erick »
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Offline JoJo

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2017, 01:20:26 PM »
 WOW YOU DA MAN. You answered all of my questions and some I didn't think of. Using the map and 15kt bomb I couldn't be more safe than I am now what ever important target they hit.

 I hope you don't have the cold my wife and I have. We're in our fourth week and still sick.

Take care and thanks
Jojo
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 01:25:12 PM by JoJo »
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Offline Erick

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2017, 03:25:06 PM »
JoJo,

thanks for the kind words.
Also I edited my posts above a bit for clarity so feel free to reread.  :dance:
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 03:34:50 PM by Erick »
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Offline Erick

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2017, 03:34:18 PM »
Thanks to both of you for information that I couldn't find anywhere else.

@pkveazey

Quote
devices that operate above 100 Mhz, would be much less affected
Am I correct in assuming that some if not most automobiles will not be affected?

part 3 :  (missed this before)

You are correct. Contrary to Prepper lore there is no reason to expect car ECU's to get "fried" and many reasons to expect they wont get "fried".
ECUs  are shielded twice, once by their own sleeve-shield which works against the alternators Electromagnetic Interference ( EMI, the tiny brother of EMP) and once by the body of the vehicle.. also tests with lighting, which is much stronger than any EMP have shown cars/trucks almost never affected and EMP tests on vehicles done by Defense Threat Reduction Agency have shown no or no significant effects on modern vehicle ECUs either.

This does not mean that accidents caused by many panicked people fleeing and lack of traffic control devices wont make many major roads impassable though.
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Offline Erick

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2017, 10:50:14 PM »
JoJo et al:

Just performed some more edits for better nuanced explanation.
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gadget99

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2017, 01:25:33 PM »
Eric,

Thank you so much for this.

You Rock

Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Erick PLEASE
« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2017, 06:54:56 AM »
Erick, GREAT write-up!

I am always amazed by the level of knowledge from Unchainedpreppers forum members - Thx again Erick.  :cheers:

Now keep in mind that the blast of a 250 kt blast is only 1/4 of a 1 Mt blast. Although there would be a lot of damage, I fear that most of the impact will be emotional and express itself economically and with a further reduction in our freedoms. Just think back to 9/11.

In Matt Bracken's novel "Enemies:Foreign and Domestic", the event that lead to dramatic gun control was a man shooting a couple of rounds into a football stadium - It wasn't the bullets that caused the vast majority of deaths and/or injuries, it was the panic that ensued. 

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