Yes chenmi, economists have been predicting the collapse of the US dollar since 2010-2011. Most of those predictions had it happening in the middle to late second decade. That means the next five years should be fun to watch.
My point of this subject was to point out that retail sales since November have been poor which will most likely lead to more lay-offs in Q1 of 2015. I suspect that like Q1's GDP in 2014 - 2015 will be flat to negative.
Can we agree on this point: High GDP = jobs, flat inflation, tax dollars coming into; local, state and federal coffers. In other words; 5%+ GDP is good while <3% GDP is bad.
With a 2.6%* GDP growth rate in 2014, the US economy is stagnate and has been stagnate since 2010.
GDP
Growth
Rate2010 2.9%
2011 1.7%
2012 2.8%
2013 1.9%
2014 2.6%*
Using the up/down budgeting forecaster (One year growth is up next year down, then next year up next year down etcetera) I suspect that 2015's GDP will be in the mid to high 1%'s - Again stagnate growth.
We have started to see deflation at the pump and I think we may see deflation in some other area's too during the first half of 2015. Then sit tight as we see inflation kick in.
In 2014 we saw some serious inflation of 10%+ in the grocery store. Will that continue? Will it move up a percent or two. The excuse of course will be "climate change."
Last, it is important that we learn from history. The major historical event we should all become familiar with, is the collapse of the Germany economy during the
Weimar Republic.
Trust me, there have been no economies - I am aware of - that has spent themselves into prosperity with a fiat currency. Lets remember, our national debt is $18T+ or 102% of our GDP. Economists believe, a healthy country's debt to GDP ratio is between 25-33%.
Currently the US
ofA is relatively safe going forward with our stagnate GDP growth. The bellwether will be the EU. Once that conglomerate breaks apart and collapses that "black economic death" will sail west across the pond to our shores.
Here is an interesting video I would like to share and if you have time for watch. At least watch the first 5 minutes.
Stay tuned...
* Not the final GDP number for 2014. There is one last adjustment before the final March 1, 2015 release.
