I was accused of being a fear monger by a former boss and friend the other day. He is probably is more right than wrong however remember even a broken clock is right twice a day.
With that written I am hearing the drums beat strongly that our economy is about to "shit the bed." What we are experiencing now is a calm seas before the storm.
I read an interesting article by Michael Snyder of ETF Daily News titled
11 Signs That We Are Entering The Next Phase Of The Global Economic Crisis. Here are the eleven signs that the summer will be warmer in the financial markets than we can stand. There are sub paragraphs outlining each sign so if you want to read the whole article go
here.
#1 It is being projected that half of all [oil] fracking companies in the United States will be “dead or sold” by the end of this year.
#2 The rig count just continues to fall as the U.S. oil industry implodes. Incredibly, the number of rigs in operation in the United States has fallen for 19 weeks in a row.
#3 McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) has announced that it will be closing 700 “poor performing” restaurants in 2015. Why would McDonald’s be doing this if the economy was actually getting better?
#4 As I wrote about the other day, we could be right on the verge of a Greek (NYSEARCA:GREK) debt default. In fact, we learned on Thursday that the Greek government has been “running on empty” for months…
# 5 Coal (NYSEARCA:KOL) accounts for approximately 40 percent of all electrical generation on the entire planet. When the price of coal starts to drop, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. Just prior to the last financial crisis in 2008, the price of coal shot up dramatically and then crashed really hard. Well, guess what? The price of coal has been crashing again, and it is already lower than it was at any point during the last recession.
#6 The price of iron ore has been crashing as well. It is down 35 percent in the last nine months, and David Stockman believes that this is because of a major deflationary crisis that is brewing in China…
#7 At this point, China (NYSEARCA:FXI) accounts for more total global trade than anyone else in the world. That is why it is so alarming that Chinese imports and exports are both absolutely collapsing…
#8 The number of publicly traded companies in the United States that filed for bankruptcy during the first quarter of 2015 was more than double the number that filed for bankruptcy during the first quarter of 2014.
#9 New home sales(NYSEARCA:IYR) in the United States just declined at their fastest pace in almost two years.
#10 U.S. manufacturing data has been shockingly weak lately… US Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manufacturing Index) plunged to 54.2 in April (from 55.7). Against expectations of a rise to 55.6, this is the biggest miss on record...
#11 When priced according to “the average blue-collar hourly wage“, U.S. stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY) are the most expensive that they have ever been in history right now. To say that this financial bubble is overdue to burst is a massive understatement.
Regardless of what .gov is propagandizing, things are NOT getting better. First time unemployment claims are rising slowly every week.
The final US GDP numbers for Q1, 2015, are now out and the US economy grew .1% (Down from original estimates of 3.0%). 20 Bpnts from negative GDP territory. OUCH! If we have another quarter of .1% growth or negative growth we will officially be in a recessionary period. According to my sources April is off to a poor start.
How were Real Estate sales in Q1? I have seen NO REPORTS to date reporting this...Why?
Last, the EU seems to be falling apart starting with Greece. Will they be able to make their payment of 200M euros to the ECB on May 1? My bet is NO.
Anyhow, this is your favorite fear monger theorizing that the glass is half empty not full.
Stay tuned....
